$ACN

ACN 估值因低市盈率与存续确认而具吸引力,但长期增长因 AI 可能对其商业模式造成颠覆而存在不确定性。

《Private Assets Are Coming to Your Portfolio…Be Ready》
The Motley Fool发布 2026-10-01 · 26 段内容
00:37/ —打开原视频

逐段跳播

26 段内容
0:378:34

今天的财报意外来自 Accenture。在我们录制本期节目期间,该股上涨了约 19%,得益于业绩好于预期。营收和利润均超出预期,其财务预测也是如此,因为这是其 2026 财年的年末,而且他们表示 2027 财年也略高于华尔街预期。

today's earnings surprise, which is Accenture. The stock rose by about 19% during our recording of the episode thanks to better-than-expected earnings. Revenue and profits exceeded expectations, and their financial projections, as this was the end of their fiscal year 2026 , and they said that fiscal year 2027 also came in slightly above Wall Street expectations.

所以,这是一家近期一直处于缓慢下行轨道的公司,对我来说,问题在于:对于一家过去两年一直缺乏好消息的公司来说,究竟哪里做对了?

So, this is a company that has been on a slow downward trajectory recently, and the question for me is : what went right for a company that has lacked good news over the past two years?

抱歉,Tyler,我就是那种人,但做对的地方就是 Accenture 没有死。Accenture 还没有死,但我不会说它的业务一定在蓬勃发展。

Sorry to be that person, Tyler, but what went right was that Accenture didn't die. Accenture is not dead yet, but I wouldn't say that its business is necessarily thriving.

如果你看它刚刚结束的 2026 财年,以本币计算的营收——这是一个很好的衡量指标,因为它是一家国际公司——同比仅增长 5%。这不是字面意义上的繁荣。可以接受,但不值得大书特书。

If you look at its fiscal year 2026, which it has just finished, revenues in local currency, which is a good measure because it is an international company, rose by only 5% year-on-year.

This is not prosperity in the literal sense. It's acceptable, but it's not something worth writing about for the homeland.

展望 2027 财年,管理层预计增长仅为 3% 至 6%。因此,明年增长可能进一步放缓。所以,这对 Accenture 来说未必是一场巨大的胜利,但它仍然活着。

Looking ahead to fiscal year 2027, management expects growth of only 3% to 6%. Therefore, growth may slow down further next year. So, this isn't necessarily a huge victory for Accenture , but it's still alive.

你知道吗?这可能就够了,因为估值在这里很重要,而在财报发布前,该股已跌至预期盈利的不到 10 倍。就在两年前,这个百分比还在三十多倍。

And you know what? This may be enough because valuation is important here, and prior to earnings, the stock had fallen to less than 10 times the expected earnings. Just two years ago , the percentage was in the thirties.

我觉得,有时候仅仅宣布天并没有真的塌下来就够了,至少短期内是这样。

I think you know, sometimes just announcing that the sky isn't actually falling is enough, at least in the short term.

他们超出了预期。前景黯淡。如果你看那些预测,你会了解到,比如他们下调指引的方式。但你看,三个月前还有一场关于 Accenture 能否生存下去的争论。所以,如你所知,这些业绩有助于回答那些问题。

They exceeded expectations. The outlook was bleak. If you look at the forecasts, you'll learn, like the way they lowered their guidance. But look, three months ago there was a debate about whether Accenture would be able to survive or not.

So, as you know, these results help answer those questions.

我不知道它未来是否会成为一只大幅增长的股票,但如果它不是走向归零,而且有迹象表明并非如此,那么就有理由从个位数的市盈率反弹。我认为这正是我们看到的。

I don't know if it's going to be a massive growth stock going forward , but if it's not heading towards zero, and if there are indications that it isn't , then there's a reason to bounce off a single-digit P/E ratio. I think that's what we're seeing.

听着,各位,如果他们不会消失,该股今天仍是盈利的 14 倍,这还算便宜,但没错,我认为这是目前最难回答的问题。

Look, guys, if they're not going to disappear , the stock is still at 14 times earnings today, which is kind of still cheap, but yeah, I think that's the hardest question right now .

嗯,我认为还有另外两点表明它可能比投资者一直认为的要略强一些。看看营业利润率。看看那些不符合公认会计准则的数字,因为它们剔除了一些与去年相比更为合适的特殊项目。营业利润率同比略有上升。

因此,营业利润率为 15.8%。这是一个非常可观的利润率,略好于去年。所以,这很好。

Well, I think there are two other things that suggest it may be a little stronger than investors have been giving it credit for. Look at the operating margin. Look at the figures that are not in line with generally accepted accounting principles because they exclude some exceptional items that were more appropriate compared to last year.

Operating margin rose slightly on an annual basis. Therefore, an operating margin of 15.8%. This is a very respectable margin and slightly better than last year. So, that's good.

再看看返还给股东的现金。基本上,它在过去一年里以股票回购和股息的形式返还了全部股东自由现金流。我想你可能是那种把杯子看成半空的人,会说管理层已经无计可施,正试图巩固其股东基础;但从好的一面看,人们确实会看到其股价估值有吸引力,而且它通过将自由现金流用于股票回购来言行一致。

Also look at the cash you return to shareholders. Essentially , it returned all of the shareholders' free cash flow during the past year in the form of share buybacks and dividends.

I suppose you could be someone who looks at the glass as half empty and says that management has run out of ideas and is trying to solidify its shareholder base; But looking at the bright side , one really sees that its shares are attractively valued, and it puts its money where its words put it by employing that free cash flow in share buybacks.

Accenture 一直是一个现金回报的故事。长期以来一直如此。如果这是一个可能表明他们已经无计可施的新变化,我会更担心,但没错,这就是他们所做的那类工作。

Accenture has always been a cash-return story. It has always been that way for a long time . I would be more concerned about that if this was a new change that might indicate they've run out of ideas , but yes, that's the kind of work they do.

是的,我想说,当你是一家咨询公司,所有资产都是人时,你的资本支出花在椅子和办公设备上。在这样的业务里,你并不需要花很多钱来维持业务运转。

Yes, I would say when you are a consulting firm and all your assets are people, you know, your capital expenditure is on chairs and office equipment. It's not like you have to spend a lot to keep the business lights on in a business like this.

过去两个月里,我们要么从我们的实盘组合中卖出了 Accenture 股票,要么在一些推荐服务中将其冻结。

Over the past two months, we have either sold Accenture shares from our real portfolios or even frozen them in some of our recommendation services.

看到这些结果之后,我在想,是不是该承认这个错误了。我很难判断这份报告反映的是一种普遍趋势,还是仅仅是一个暂时现象。

After seeing these results, I wonder if it is time to admit the mistake. I find it difficult to determine whether this report reflects a general trend or is merely a passing phenomenon.

从你的角度看,5%的股息派发或5%的营收增长算不上什么大事,但如果在合理估值下再加上不错的回购,你就能实现7%到10%的每股收益增长,而在当前估值下,从大局来看,这并不是一个糟糕的选项。

Based on your perspective, a 5% dividend payout or 5% revenue growth isn't a big deal, but if you add good buybacks at a reasonable valuation, you can achieve 7 to 10% earnings per share growth, and with the current valuation, that's not a bad proposition considering the big picture.

我们可以回顾2025年5月,当时The Tradedesk股价上涨约20%,达到每股约70美元,当天的一条新闻标题写道:“The Tradedesk的Cookie平台推动了一场惊人的复苏。”

但自那以后我们已经下跌了约80%。因此,市场对单个财季的一天反应,并不一定意味着一切都好。

We can look back to May 2025 when The Tradedesk stock rose by about 20% to reach about $70 per share, and one of the headlines that day said: "The Tradedesk's Cookie Platform Fuels a Stunning Recovery ."

But we've fallen by about 80 % since then. Therefore, a market reaction in one day to a single financial quarter does not necessarily mean that everything is fine.

仍有一些悬而未决的问题。人工智能正在改变很多事情,我想说,Accenture的业务仍然面临一些尚未得到解答的问题。

There are still some outstanding questions. I mean, artificial intelligence is changing a lot of things , and I would say that Accenture's work still faces questions that have not yet been answered.

我要说的是,有一件事让我感到非常鼓舞,如果我是一名Accenture的股东,我会对此非常乐观。

I will say this , there is one thing that has been very encouraging to me, and I would be very optimistic about it if I were a shareholder in Accenture.

Accenture表示,65%的新增订单来自以结果为导向、与价格挂钩的项目。这一点极其重要。看看人工智能正在取代的那些工作量。它没有固定成本。我现在就告诉你这一点。它可以按结果计费,但人工智能常常陷入这些循环之中,不必要地消耗token,而如果你想在有限的支出下,以你支付的价格得到你想要的结果,这非常困难。

在很多情况下,你并不知道人工智能在做什么。在我看来,这与Accenture的定位恰恰相反,他们说:“我们实际上可以为你想要的结果给出一个价格。”这对我来说意义重大,而这里的数字也反映了这一点。

Accenture says that 65% of new bookings came from results-driven, price-bound projects. This is extremely important. Look at the workloads that artificial intelligence is replacing.

It has no fixed costs. I'll tell you that now. It can be results-based, but AI often gets stuck in these loops, consuming tokens unnecessarily, and it's very difficult if you're trying to limit your expenses to get the result you want at the price you're paying.

In many cases, you don't know what artificial intelligence is doing. To me , this is the opposite of Accenture's positioning, where they say: " We can actually give you a price for the result you want."

This is huge to me, and the numbers here reflect that.

这就是它的客户们共同之处。我从未想过Accenture会倒闭。我对其中一些规模较小的咨询公司感到担忧,但话说回来,问题是:它会是一笔好的投资吗,未来它会跑赢市场吗?

This is what its customers have in common. I never thought Accenture would go out of business. I am concerned about some of these smaller consulting firms , but again, the question is: Will it be a good investment, and will it outperform the market going forward?

首先,他们最大的开支是人才。Tyler说,这是一门不太依赖资产的生意,但他们真正的产品就是他们的人才。在他们历史的大部分时间里,他们一直在与其他MBA学位来源争夺商学院毕业生。

现在,他们需要程序员。他们需要人工智能领域的人才。在某种程度上,我不认为他们真的在与扎克伯格竞争高达1.5亿美元的薪酬方案,但他们的原材料成本正在上升。

First, their biggest expense is talent. This is a business that doesn't rely much on assets, says Tyler, but their real product is their talent. Throughout most of their history, they have competed for business school graduates against other sources of MBA degrees .

Now, they need programmers. They need talent in the field of artificial intelligence. To some extent , I don't think they're really competing with Zuckerberg on salary packages that reach $150 million, but the cost of their raw materials is increasing.

另一方面,他们在会计上一直依赖工时计费。随着人工智能融入他们的业务,至少存在一种可能:如果人工智能做到了我们所希望的事情,所需的工时数将会减少。这会不会给营收带来下行压力?

On the other hand , they have always relied on the clock in their accounting. With the integration of artificial intelligence into their business , there is at least a possibility that if the AI does what we hope, the number of hours required will decrease. Will this put downward pressure on revenues?

再加上一个简单的事实:人工智能正在让编程民主化。我不认为这会消除在许多重大事务中对合伙人的需求,但企业在内部能做的事情与聘请顾问之间,是否正在发生轻微的转变?这种轻微的转变,是否就是跑赢市场与仅仅是一家维持生存、却并非出色成长故事的普通公司之间的差别?

Add to that the simple fact that artificial intelligence is democratizing programming. I don't think it eliminates the need for a partner in many of these big matters, but is there a slight shift in what companies can do internally versus hiring a consultant?

Is this slight shift the difference between outperforming the market and being just an ordinary company that maintains its existence, but is not a remarkable growth story?

我认为这些问题依然存在,而且非常切题,如果我要利用这次股价下跌,这就是我会思考的问题。在像Accenture和Gartner这样的世界里,人工智能与咨询业的关系,将是这些公司面临的最具挑战性的事情之一,也是未来投资者面临的最大问题。

I think these questions still stand and are very much relevant, and that's what I'll be thinking about if I'm going to take advantage of this price drop. artificial intelligence in relation to consulting in a world like Accenture and Gartner will be one of the most challenging things for these companies and the biggest question for investors in the future.

这个频道对 $ACN 的历次判断

The Motley Fool 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。

2026-10-01本条
今天的财报意外来自 Accenture。在我们录制本期节目期间,该股上涨了约 19%,得益于业绩好于预期。
看完整历史 ›
美股听风