相比 SpaceX，更看好 Amazon：两者估值分别为 2.83T 与 2.56T，大致相近，Amazon 只是略贵一些，但其 7750 亿美元的过去十二个月营收要大得多，且仅 AWS 一项就达 1480 亿美元，护城河强于新兴云厂商；他仍更愿意把钱投给 Amazon。
逐段跳播
Amazon 是 Starlink 的竞争对手。他们有自己的低轨卫星。目前还没有像 Starlink 那样经过充分验证，但他们进展得很顺利。所以这不会是一个完全垄断的局面。这将是一个共享的市场，但对 SpaceX 来说仍然是一个非常强大的市场，而且他们在这里拥有巨大的领先优势。
Amazon is a competitor in Starlink. They have their LEO. It's not really as proven as Starlink yet, but they are well on their way. So, it's not going to be a complete monopoly.
This is going to be a shared a shared market, but it's still a very strong one for SpaceX and they have the huge lead here.
或者我们还有 Amazon，这是投资者可以考虑的另一个机会，本质上是一家非常相似的公司。Amazon 的估值也大致相同。好吧，它的市值高出几千亿美元，但它的估值是 2.83。所以是 2.56 对 2.83。
Amazon 的总市值略贵一些。但当你看看 Amazon 的收入规模，Amazon 做的不是 400 亿或 500 亿，Amazon 正在向一万亿攀升。在过去 12 个月里，他们实现了 7750 亿美元的收入。
Or we have Amazon, another opportunity that investors could consider that is a very similar company at its core. Amazon also trades at roughly the same valuation. All right, it's a couple hundred billion more, but it's at 2.83.
So you have 2.56 versus 2.83. Amazon is slightly more expensive in total market cap. But when you look at the amount of revenue that Amazon's doing, Amazon's not doing 40 or 50 billion, Amazon is climbing towards a trillion.
In the trailing 12 months, they've done $775 billion in revenue.
现在，你可能会说那是低利润率的零售，但其实并不是。其中很大一部分收入来自利润率更高的业务，那些以服务为导向的业务，甚至是更偏技术的业务、订阅业务，就像 SpaceX 的 Starlink 和 SpaceX 的 AI 那样的东西。
再说一次，SpaceX 的很大一部分收入来自出租服务器。而 Amazon 通过 Amazon Web Services 在出租服务器方面也有相当大的业务。如果我们只看 AWS，这家公司已经做到了 1480 亿美元。
所以，即使把其他所有东西都拿掉，所有零售、所有广告、所有订阅服务、所有第三方卖家的物流，单是 AWS，它就像 XAI，但我会说它有更宽的护城河，因为 AWS 不是新型云服务商。
它是企业构建整个业务所依赖的 IT 基础设施。单是这项业务，就是 SpaceX 未来一年 400 亿或 500 亿美元假设收入增长的三倍价值。再说一次，这只是 Amazon 的一部分。实际上它只占他们总收入的一小部分。
Now, you may say that's low margin retail, but it's really not. A lot of that revenue comes from higher margin businesses, ones that are serviceoriented or even ones that are more technology focused, subscriptions, things just like SpaceX's Starlink and things just like SpaceX's AI.
Again, a lot of the revenue from SpaceX is coming from renting out servers. Well, Amazon has a pretty big business in renting out servers as well with Amazon Web Services. And if we look at just AWS, this company has done $148 billion.
So, even taking away everything else, all the retail, all the ads, all the subscription services, all the third party seller logistics, AWS alone, which is like XAI, but I would say it has even a bigger moat because AWS is not a neo cloud.
It is IT infrastructure that companies build their entire business upon. Just this business alone is three times the value of SpaceX's 40 or 50 billion dollar hypothetical revenue growth over the next year.
And again, this is just a portion of Amazon. It's actually a minority of their total revenue.
我能想到的最好的直观展示方式，其实就是把 SpaceX 的收入叠加在 Amazon 的收入之上，这样你就能通过对比看到它会处在什么位置。所以如果 Amazon 要收购 SpaceX，假设他们以某种方式买下这家公司，尽管他们做不到，因为估值太高了，但如果他们能，这就是 SpaceX 会给 Amazon 增加多少收入。
那块炭灰色的细条，就是 Amazon 如果收购 SpaceX 在技术上会获得的收入。我还是更愿意把我的钱投给 Amazon。
The best way that I could visualize this is actually just stacking SpaceX's revenue on top of Amazon's so that you can see just by comparison where it would fit. So if Amazon was to acquire SpaceX, let's say they were to buy the company somehow, even though they they couldn't because valuation's so high, but if they could, this is how much revenue SpaceX would add to Amazon.
That charcoal sliver there, that's what Amazon would technically gain in revenue if they acquired SpaceX. I still prefer my dollar going towards Amazon.
这个频道对 $AMZN 的历次判断
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