ASML 仍是长期持有标的：市场预期很高（本季度营收增长 50% 至 55%、每股收益增长 89%），而 33 倍市盈率与 1.5% 股息率的高估值意味着一旦不及预期就有下行风险；但说话者仍将满仓持有至财报公布，并持有 10 年，预期其垄断地位将进一步扩大，装机基础将增长至 250 亿至 300 亿美元。

We have ASML. I own a lot of ASML, super important company in the semiconductor industry.

And why is AI so important? Well, AI is not just a buzzword. AI really means a lot of earnings growth in this market.

And the one that is expected to grow the most in both its earnings per share and in both its revenue is ASML. ASML is my fifth largest position. It's a $124,000 position with $92,000 in the green.

So, it's been an insane winner already. And ASML is still expected to grow substantially.

Now, this is also a company that's reporting earnings on Wednesday. So, let's go ahead and take a look at ASML before it reports its earnings this Wednesday. The top company by revenue growth this quarter is ASML.

It's expected to grow 50 to 55%. It depends on what analyst you're listening to. The the estimates range from upwards of 60% to like 45 with a mid-range of around 50 to 55%. That is incredible revenue growth.

Again, this is not earnings per share growth. This is revenue growth. That's a lot of year-over-year growth.

Now, if we look at ASML through the lens of earnings per share, which is even more important than revenue, usually we want the earnings of the company to grow. What do you know?

ASML again is at the top of the list. In this case, my more pure AI company, the one that only focuses in the semiconductor industry, both contrasting AI and physical hardware, is the one that's doing the best.

ASML is expected to grow its earnings per share by 89%. Somewhere in that range. Again, the analyst assessments vary, but most of them agree it's going to be substantial earnings per share growth.

When we look at the earnings per share on the chart, we see that it's not a particularly low year a year ago. So, this isn't like it's coming off of some super low baseline or anything irregular. No, this is just organic growth by ASML.

So, ASML like many of these AI companies has extraordinarily high expectations and they need to fulfill on this. They need to come in with these numbers otherwise the stock will be very hurt. So there is downside here.

When we look at the company itself, the valuation is relatively high. It's at a 33 Ford PE ratio, a 1.5% free cash yield. So ASML is no deal today. It's not a great value stock by any means, and it has extremely high expectations.

Now, normally when I have a stock that's a large position with a high valuation and extremely high expectations, I would approach this earnings with this stock with a lot of trepidation.

It would be something where I'm concerned or nervous about going into it because well, I don't want to lose my gains. With ASML, I have taken some money off the table. I sold some when it was close to $2,000 per share, but even with its current share price, I remain holding this position, and I'm going to hold it into earnings.

Now, I can't guarantee which way the market will react. The market has sold down ASML incorrectly in the past and they could do it again. But I believe with a high degree of confidence that this company is going to generate incredibly good returns and good business prospects over the next decade.

When I look at ASML, I'm not looking at this one just for this quarter. I do own it going for the next 10 years. And when I look at the 10 years for ASML, I believe it has a very bright future.

One of them is continued revenue growth. Now, revenue growth drives everything else. The margins, the the earnings, all of that is driven first by the revenue growth of the company.

And why does revenue growth continue to grow for ASML? Well, we're going into a world where everything needs a chip. Like virtually every device needs a chip. And in order to produce good quality chips that actually work for all different applications and to produce them at a cheap price with a high yield efficiently, you have to go through ASML's machines. 10 years in the future, I believe you'll still have to go through ASML's machines.

Now, there's a thought that over time moes erode. They get weaker. Like ASML will have Chinese competitors catch up or or different companies like Sony will compete with them somehow.

That does happen in some cases, but I actually believe it's going to be the opposite with ASML. I think the moat is actually going to get bigger and deeper and wider over the next 10 years.

When you look at what's going on, they are actually starting to sell more of their high NA EUV machines. These are like their supreme EUV machines, not their lower the the lower ones, which even the lower ones are so they're such a wide moat, nobody can copy those, but they're starting to sell their new generation ones that are so far ahead of competitors, they're just not even in sight.

There's no one else doing anything remotely close. They are literally over a decade ahead of the next competitor. And they are gaining distance. The distance is not closing in, it's getting wider between ASML and the next closest competitor.

There's also the thought that people want cheaper chips, but that means you have to go through ASML. And over time, the moat for ASML is not just expanding technologically. They're not just getting better at what they do at a faster clip than anyone else, but it also expands in lots of different ways.

For example, in their supplier relationships, in all their materials, in their logistics with their customer relationship, ASML has navigated this perfectly. Management has been restrained and disciplined in growing the relationship with their customers.

They they like them. They have agreements. Their customers up until a point were even invested in ASML. And now they have deep rooted relationships with all the fab makers. These are companies that have ASML machines embedded into their systems and operations.

And these are big expensive machines that would take an enormous amount of effort to uproot.

And then just going into the supplier relationships, all the exclusive agreements, literally thousands of different companies that ASML gets it supplies from, that would be very difficult for another company to replicate.

Not only would a competitor have to replicate ASML's technology, all their supplier relationships, they'd have to figure out all the chemistry, build all of it together, but even if they have a machine that's about as good, they need to convince all the customers of ASML to switch from ASML to them to save some money in the process.

Most of these companies don't want to save money. They want to save time and they want to increase yield. That's really what costs them the most. So they will go with the company they have trust with.

So you also have a logistics a distribution mode. You also have the fact that when they install machines you have to continually upgrade them service them and you have exclusive agreements doing that.

This is called the install base management sales. It it seems like uh management's a bit of a euphemism here but it's basically after machine is installed it's still incredibly complex.

You need experts to run it and service it and upgrade it to the new iterations, the new technology. All of that is very expensive. ASML has expertise and they're growing this part of their business dramatically.

I believe that in 10 years, this could be a 25 to30 billion business. Right now, it's just approaching 10. So, if you have install base management triple over the next 10 years, the earnings per share growth of this company is going to grow on a baseline.

The biggest thing I'd portray for investors here is when I'm looking at companies, I'm always trying to look at potential weaknesses. Competitors on the horizon, taking their market or stumblings from management team, and I just don't see any here.

ASML remains with top tier management, highly disciplined and long-term focused. I don't see any competitors that are doing anything that's remotely threatening to the company.

There's always chatter of it that maybe it will happen, but I don't see it here. And I believe that ASML is one of the true companies that has a full monopoly. A full-on monopoly.

Now, they're not going to abuse it because they're good stewards over it, but they are in a very unique position. So, this one I'm remaining fully invested in.

Companies like ASML and TSM are going to continue growing for the next 10 years.