ASML 本周业绩应当会超预期，但股价未必上涨，存在获利了结的风险。当前股价约 1800 美元、市盈率 40 倍，已计入 2028 年盈利，未来几个月内大概率不会突破 2000 美元；在经历 4-5 个月的震荡后，有望创下新高，但这取决于下游 AI 的透明度。

Now it's time to delve into our featured technical segment. ASML is our technical focus today. ASML stock has certainly been profitable since the beginning of the year so far. For example, the stock rose by 64%, and the CEO spoke about an AI chip boom that could extend beyond 2028 .

So, what are your thoughts on a company like this?

Okay, Nicole, we're expecting $12.50 per share in this earnings report coming out later this week, and we have a mid-range earnings surprise of 4%. Therefore, this figure would be $13 per share if we get a surprise similar to the past four quarters.

But we saw a much bigger surprise in the second quarter, which was 12%. Therefore, the upside potential here lies in earnings that could exceed $13 and even $14 per share. What we need to see next is how consistent the stock's performance is.

Yes, the stock is currently trading at approximately $1800 with a price-to-earnings ratio of 40.

So, the point here is that they will definitely have a strong quarter. They will certainly exceed expectations. But if the strength of these results is not enough to move the stock, we may see significant profit-taking.

Therefore, I am somewhat neutral regarding the outcome of this earnings report, but the implied volatility in the options market is 6 %. That is, the stock may move up or down by 6%.

This could be very influential on what will happen to ASML stock on Wednesday.

One of the pages of the report you sent us talked about the company's pricing and that ASML was overrated. This is the current situation. What do you think of the current price level?

It is at $1759. It is down by 1.1%. I know we're waiting for Wednesday's earnings, but why do you think the stock is overvalued?

Yes, Nicole, they are achieving an annual increase of approximately 30% in their installed units across the many different groups they supply . They have a price-to-earnings ratio of 40.

So, if you consider a price-to-earnings ratio of 40 to be an indicator of market growth relative to your trading volume, you are actually achieving 30% growth, which puts you about 10 points higher than that.

I think if you look at the chart, the Zacks indicator shows that the $1,800 price per share reflects the 2028 earnings forecast. So, this means that the market is pricing the stock based on a forward outlook that is two years ahead of us .

If you look at other stock charts, we may find that we are talking about the year 2029. The idea is that they believe that all these contracts made up to 2028 or even 2029 will be guaranteed for them.

This is a very restrictive consensus, Nicole. This is the source of concern. They have no room for error, and the extremely high expectations have already become part of the stock price.

When I look at the big picture, I see that much of what we look forward to depends on the expansion of artificial intelligence. If this expansion is slow, it could be a problem because ASML's long-term numbers depend on it; they manufacture the machines needed to produce advanced processors.

Or, are you worried about this part? Is the news that they have a future vision good, or is the heavy reliance on expansion plans bad news? Yes, to understand the nature of their work simply.

They use very high levels of nanometer beams and direct them onto silicon wafers to etch the wafers' electrical circuitry. And now you can put millions and millions, even trillions of circuits onto these chips.

Therefore, they are at a very late stage in the infrastructure supply chain . In fact, they are probably at the very end of the entire production line . But as you pointed out , AI work is consumer- and business-oriented, there are no profits at the moment , there is a lot of round-the-clock funding, delays in power connections, opposition from local and state governments to AI data centers , as well as strict safety regulations affecting companies operating in this field.

So, when you are at the front of the supply chain and you receive all this work, you expose yourself to facing all those problems that may appear later, and they are many and significant, and they will ultimately come towards you.

So, this is the problem; For a long time, it was about the tools of this market, which always meant ASML. They have a monopoly in the final stages, and that is why there is such a very optimistic outlook; People don't realize the shaky foundations of the bond market, and the high-risk bond market, Nicole, screams that these players in the next stages are under tremendous pressure .

When we consider the prices here at 1758, and since you certainly have more reasons to buy than to sell, it seems you are more inclined to be on the optimistic side. What kind of upside potential can we expect for this stock when you are concerned about the possibility that it is overpriced?

Well, as you know, we reached a world record high at 2000, and now we are at 1800 or 1750, as you pointed out. Therefore, I don't think we can break through the 2000 level in the next few months, because it will be extremely difficult to overcome all the negative news flows .

But, before that , and in the following stages , I wouldn't be surprised if there were fluctuations in performance for 4 to 5 months, after which the stock might hit a new record high.

But it really depends on transparency in companies that have nothing to do with their actual deliveries to chipmakers, such as SK Hynix, Samsung , Intel, and groups like TSMC and Taiwan Semiconductor.

These groups are not the ones to worry about ; they are customers, but they are not the source of concern. The groups to be concerned about are those that are in much later stages.

Companies like Anthropic, ChatGPT, Oracle, and all those names. So, it will be really interesting to see how the market reacts, and how the CEO's comments on Wednesday address all this turmoil in the more distant stages to come.