ASML 的业绩强劲——营收超过 110 亿欧元，利润高于预期，利润率接近 60%——其 EUV 垄断地位在 2027-2028 年已售罄，需求强劲延续至 2030 年。但它具有周期性，目前市盈率为 53 倍，而两年前仅为一半，因此现在是持有而非买入的时机；AI 终端客户营收是一项风险。
逐段跳播
我们回来后，将谈论 ASML 的利润。我们几分钟后回来。欢迎回到节目。ASML 今天开盘前公布了财报，Rachel。业绩看起来非常好，我认为这并不令人意外，因为他们销售的设备需要数年才能制造出来，而且他们有大量的等待名单。
When we return, we will talk about ASML's profits. We'll be back in a few moments. Welcome back to the program. ASML announced its earnings before the market opened today, Rachel.
The results looked very good, and I don't think that's surprising because they sell equipment that takes years to manufacture, and they have a huge waiting list.
是的，这完全正确。如果你不熟悉 ASML，它是一家荷兰科技巨头。他们垄断了极紫外光（EUV）光刻机的制造。这些是极其复杂的系统，重达数吨。它把微小的电路图案印到硅晶圆上。因此，ASML 是半导体行业的守门人。
没有它，并非所有先进芯片，以及 Nvidia 的 AI 处理器，都无法制造出来。
Yes, that's absolutely true. I mean, if you're not familiar with ASML, it's a Dutch tech giant. They have a monopoly on the manufacture of extreme ultraviolet or EUV lithography machines.
These are extremely complex systems that weigh several tons. It prints microscopic circuit patterns onto silicon wafers. Therefore, ASML serves as the gatekeeper of the semiconductor industry.
Not all advanced chips, and Nvidia's AI processors, could be manufactured without it.
以上就是对这家公司的简要概述。ASML 的收入超过110亿欧元，利润远高于预期，毛利率接近60%。CEO 已经警告说，他们2027年和2028年的计划产能已经完全售罄。他们将无法完全满足客户需求。
本质上，你拥有的是全球最重要芯片制造设备的唯一供应商。他们说，直到这个十年结束，他们都无法足够快地制造机器来跟上市场。
So, that was a brief overview of the company. ASML generated revenues exceeding 11 billion euros, with profits significantly higher than expected, and a gross profit margin approaching 60%.
The CEO has already warned that their planned production capacity for 2027 and 2028 has already been completely sold out. They will not be able to fully meet customer demand. Essentially, you own the sole supplier of the world’s most important chip-making equipment.
They say they cannot build machines fast enough to keep up with the market until the end of the decade.
所以我认为，我们在这里持续看到的最大结论是，核心 AI 基础设施的建设不会在短期内放缓。相反，我认为存在一个疑问：这家公司在未来两年内数学上能够实现的收入规模，是否存在一个人为的上限。
因此，供应链一侧存在制约。但长期来看，这对整个行业是好事，当然对 ASML 也是好事。
So I think the biggest conclusion we continue to see here is that the building of the core AI infrastructure is not going to slow down anytime soon. On the contrary, I think there is a question about whether there is an artificial ceiling for the amount of revenue that this company can mathematically achieve over the next two years.
Therefore, there are constraints on the supply chain side. But in the long run, this is great for the industry and certainly great for ASML.
如果这样的话，会有大量收入、大量利润。这是一个瓶颈，而就在我们录制这段内容时，该股上涨了0.1%。也许这是真的。你看，Rachel 是这么说的，但这大概是世界上最难通过季度业绩来预测任何东西的公司，对吧？
我们谈论的这些先进机器，从下单到交付需要18个月。它需要安装和调试。你需要两架巨大的飞机来运输和安装它。因此，在这里很难做出根本性的改变。需求旺盛持续到2028年并延续到2030年，印证了这一趋势的有效性。
我认为这不会让任何人感到意外，这也是我认为该股没有波动的原因。
If, a lot of revenue, a lot of profits. This is a bottleneck, and the stock is up 0.1% as we record this. And perhaps this is true. I mean, look, Rachel said so, but this is probably the hardest company in the world to look at its quarterly results and predict anything, okay?
The advanced machines we are talking about take 18 months from order to delivery. It needs to be installed and prepared. You need two huge planes to transport and install it. Therefore, it is difficult to make a radical change here.
High demand until 2028 and continuing into 2030 confirms the validity of the trend. I don't think this will surprise anyone, and that's why I think the stock isn't moving.
但你看，这里有一些不错的评论。他们不能向中国出售高端设备，但可以出售不那么先进、更普通的设备，而且他们正从中国看到旺盛的需求和收入。这是好事，因为这代表着额外的增长。这不是我们关注的重点。
此外，他们将在未来几年把产能扩大30%，并且他们看到了足够的长期需求，可以把其中一部分现金投入进去，甚至可能投入更多。
But look, there were some good comments here. They cannot sell high-end devices to China, but they can sell less advanced and more common devices, and they are seeing high demand and revenue from China.
This is good because it represents an additional increase. That's not what we were focusing on, you know. Also, they are expanding their production capacity by 30% over the next few years, and they see sufficient long-term demand to invest some of this cash, and perhaps even more.
我想提醒你，你应该尽早提交申请，而且大多数申请都是可以取消的。所以，我不知道该怎么看待2030年的需求预测，但他们能做出预测是件好事。
I would like to warn you that you should submit your applications early, and most of them are cancelable. So, I don't know what to think of the demand forecast for 2030, but it's good that they are forecasting it.
简而言之，ASML 股票是一只周期性股票。有买入的时候，也有持有的时候。它目前的市盈率为53倍。两年前你本可以以这个价格的一半买入。现在是持有该股的时候，而这正是该股目前的表现。
In short, ASML stock is a cyclical stock. There are times to buy, and there are times to hold. It is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 53 times. Um, you could have bought it for half this price two years ago.
This is the time to hold the stock, and this is what the stock is doing right now.
是的，市场今天在问的问题——就在我们录制这段内容时，许多云初创公司跌幅达到两位数——是：未来 AI 肯定会有巨大需求，但谁是它们产生收入的最终客户？比如，Anthropic 和 OpenAI 这样的公司是谁？
已经有一些报道表明，它们可能没有实现我们几个月前还预期的收入增长。因此，这最终会影响到 ASML 和半导体制造公司。所以，未来几个季度有很多值得关注的地方。
Yes, the question the market is asking today, with many cloud startups dropping by double digits as we record, is: there will certainly be huge demand for AI in the future, but who is the end customer from whom they will generate revenue?
I mean, who are companies like Anthropic and OpenAI? There have been some reports suggesting that they may not be achieving the revenue growth we were expecting just a few months ago.
Therefore, this ultimately affects ASML and semiconductor manufacturing companies. So, there's a lot to watch over the next few quarters for them.
这个频道对 $ASML 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。