ASML 业绩强劲：今年第三次上调 2026 年指引，毛利率接近 57%、高于指引，管理层表示 2027–2028 年产能无法满足需求，并讨论了 2029–2030 年的订单。尽管因预期过高而遭遇抛售，AI 需求逻辑依然完好，说话者持乐观态度。

Let's focus on ASML's one-day chart after the company announced its latest quarterly results. We have seen good performance from listed stocks in Europe. American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) are trading slightly lower now.

It's not as bad as we see in the rest of the sector, with this slight decline here, but it is clearly under pressure from the sell-offs we are seeing today in the semiconductor sector in general.

Well, I would say there is a lot to admire, and I know we have seen some fluctuations in price performance today, but it is actually a little higher now, and we are seeing objectively strong numbers.

I mean, this was a clear win, with revenues being strong at 13.6 billion, which, when converted to US dollars, amounts to approximately 13.45 billion.

Some reports indicated that sales were slightly below expectations , but that depends on which analyst or consensus you rely on. So, with all that said, the number remained really strong.

The artificial intelligence story surrounding it has only grown stronger . I think one of the most crucial points was their statement that their planned production capacity for 2027 and 2028 will not be able to fully meet their customers' demand, indicating that AI infrastructure development is still relatively limited by supply.

However, this only indicates how strong the demand for artificial intelligence is.

They said their customers continue to raise their expectations for equipment, and are already discussing some orders for 2029 and 2030. Thus, the guidance was raised again. They now expect an increase in their 2026 revenue guidance, marking the third increase in their annual forecast this year alone.

The management of their installed base has also seen a tremendous rise driven by productivity upgrades, truly demonstrating that customers are not only spending on new tools , but also getting greater output from existing factories.

Therefore, we currently expect strong guidance for the fourth quarter. We have seen gross profit margins of around 57%.

Now, perhaps the only concern was that we were hoping for better results, given the amount of enthusiasm associated with this stock before the report was released.

It seems that despite the strength of the overall theme and conclusions, "good" is not good enough. Once again, they are raising their expectations, as their gross profit margins came in higher than the guidance, and their revenue reached approximately 5.8 billion.

Also, the market is reacting to a quarter that may not have been exceptional, but the most important commentary seems to have been not about the quarter itself, but about everything currently related to their advanced lithography tools, which are exceeding their planned supply through 2028 with some of these long-term targets that really show the nature of how this field has evolved. It's no longer so cyclical.

Some of these long-term goals and longer timeframes really do seem to show that they believe the demand is there and will last for a long time. Therefore, I think the most optimistic reading is all about AI infrastructure, and the negative reaction seems to be more related to some high expectations.

But again, I would say that it's not necessarily negative as we're a little higher here, adding to gains of around 60.7% for the year, Sam.

I mean, this is a leading company in the global chip industry . It is indeed seen as a benchmark. I mean, she has a clear vision. Demand is strong. Production capacity is fully sold out this year and into next year.

She just wonders how much more they have to say.

You know, I think that stabilizing at the breakeven point in this environment with the flow of news this morning is quite positive for ASML. When you analyze the matter and what Jenny was just talking about , it's basic economics, supply and demand.

They don't have enough supply to meet the demand, do they ? People might look at that and say, " Man, you should increase production." But what happens in this scenario in the underlying economy, right? This is usually a good thing.

I am very optimistic here. I will invest for the next few weeks. I will buy a call spread for October 30 at a price of 1775-1800, and I am looking to pay around $5.