ASML 是买入标的，也是组合持仓：EUV 垄断地位加上十余年的领先优势，支撑其需求延续至 2029-2030 年，同时装机基础带来的经常性服务收入持续增长。其市盈率已从 47-49 倍降至 25-26 倍；假设 2028 年每股收益为 74.53，给予 30 倍市盈率，则意味着约 10% 的年化回报。

The first stock on the list this month was none other than ASML, a stock I already own in my investment portfolio. I added it in 2025 and it was one of the biggest winners over the past year, with my position in it rising by about 150%.

Now, if you are not familiar with ASML, who are they and what exactly do they do? Okay, let's simplify things a lot. The AI semiconductor supply chain runs through a company that monopolizes some of its most important manufacturing equipment.

Extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines . ASML builds these lithographic machines that use light to print tiny circuit patterns onto silicon wafers.

We could talk about this all day, but here's how it actually works. ASML operates in the field of manufacturing lithographic printing machines (EUV). They are the only resource.

They have no competitors. They have a monopoly and sell these machines to chip manufacturers.

What you need to understand is that developing this technology required decades of engineering and a network of specialized suppliers, creating a huge barrier to potential competitors.

Over the past few years, this monopoly and this competitive advantage have been questioned a few times, but the reality we continue to see is that ASML is more than a decade ahead of its competitors , even China.

We see that this is still the case, as its CEO recently stated in the latest earnings report that some customers are expressing a desire to place orders for 2029 and even 2030. So, there is a great demand for their products.

This is why analysts' revenue forecasts continued to rise steadily over the past year. Whether you're looking at revenue projections for 2026 or even going all the way to 2030, now, when we take a closer look at their total net sales from their latest earnings report, you can see that by the third quarter of 2026, they have already roughly equalled what they achieved in 2025.

We can see the logic around 11 billion euros. Memory, 10.3.

But we have the least discussed part of the business, which is the management of the installed database. And here lies what is truly interesting. This part of the business is already generating more sales in just three quarters of 2026 than it did in all of 2025.

Why is this the case? Okay, you need to understand this part of the business. You need to understand this business sector. The established base management is essentially the part of the business that has recurring revenue characteristics, and that is again why we see it already being higher than it was in 2025.

Why is this considered a recurring revenue segment ? Well, every additional EUV device sold expands the fleet in which customers rely on ASML for service, maintenance and updates throughout its operational life.

Therefore, these devices need continuous servicing. Therefore, the more they sold, the more their installed base management sales consistently increased. It is recurring revenue.

You can see that clearly when you look at this business sector over the past five years . So, this is a high-quality stock. This is why this company is trading at a price premium.

At least for the past five years , this has been the case most of the time.

We can see periods over the past five years where this stock has traded at a price-to-earnings ratio of over 40. Now, we can see a lot of volatility, a lot of instability in the stock price.

We have seen some rapid rises and some rapid falls.

What we can say is that in the summer of 2026, in early July, the stock was trading at around 47 to 49 times earnings. We have now dropped to between 25 and 26 times the profits only.

So, the valuation multiple has fallen significantly in just the last few months.

But here's what's really interesting. Take a look at the expected growth in ASML's profits. We can see that the expected earnings growth over the next few years is substantial for ASML.

What we saw in their latest earnings report is that they need to expand their capacity because demand is very high. As we mentioned earlier, there are customers looking to secure orders until 2030.

So, let's assume that by 2028, we'll use that as just an example, i.e., a few years from now, earnings per share will reach 74.53. What will that do for them? 74.5, and we will also assume that the 12-month extended earnings multiple will see a significant decline.

From 42, close to 43, down to 30. You are still looking at cumulative returns of around 10% each year.

Furthermore, Wall Street is currently giving them a target price of $2,289 per share, which represents an increase of approximately 38%. So, the company is not just a monopoly, the sole provider of EUV lithography technology, but it now has increasing demand until 2030.

This is a stock I am happy to have in my investment portfolio.