ASML 是芯片设备制造商，需求超过其 2027–2028 年的计划供给；但在 54 倍市盈率、57 倍自由现金流倍数且没有安全边际的情况下，其保守的 DCF 模型仅隐含未来十年约 2.6% 的年化回报；周期性需求和出口限制是风险，且四年 50% 的增长并不算突出。
逐段跳播
这里还有一个很有说服力的反方论据。出售芯片制造设备的公司ASML继续报告极高的需求。
Here is another expressive counter-argument. ASML, the company that sells chip-making machines , continues to report extremely high demand.
好，各位，第二支箭是ASML。再说一次，这家公司的市值是6400亿美元。它的机构价值是6630亿。所以，大约有230亿美元的债务，主要是这些。这算不了什么，因为它去年产生了113亿美元的自由现金流，过去五年平均每年83亿美元。
各位，资本回报率很棒，利润率在增长，但仍然相当稳定，并不波动。
Okay guys, the second arrow is ASML. So, again , the market value of this company is $640 billion . Its institutional value is 663 billion. So, there is approximately $23 billion in debt primarily.
This is nothing when you generated $11.3 billion last year, and $8.3 billion annually over the past five years in free cash flow. Guys, great returns on capital, growing profit margins, but they are still fairly stable and not volatile.
现在，我要说的是，57倍的市价自由现金流比率在这里似乎有点高。54倍的市盈率似乎也有点高。但各位，总体来看，从这里的每一项指标看，它仍然像是一家很棒的公司。我们社区的成员将其归类为买入机会。
Now, I will say this, the price-to-free cash flow ratio of 57 seems a little high here. The price-to-earnings ratio of 54 also seems a bit high. But guys, overall, it still looks like a great company by every measure here.
Members of our community classify it as a buying opportunity.
首先，是一种难以模仿的战略性做法。ASML的光刻系统在先进芯片的制造中不可或缺。如果芯片制造商继续推进工艺技术，他们可能需要更强大的工具，这支撑了ASML的定价能力和长期重要性。
Firstly, a strategic approach that is difficult to imitate. ASML's lithography systems are essential in the manufacture of advanced chips. If chip manufacturers continue to develop process technology, they may need more capable tools, which supports ASML’s pricing power and long-term importance.
其次，需求显然在增长。在2026年10月14日、也就是几天前发布的更新中，ASML表示申请记录的势头正在上升。而且其2027-2028年的计划供应将无法完全满足客户需求。这真的很棒。
Secondly, the demand is clearly increasing. In its update issued on October 14, 2026, which was just days ago, ASML said that the momentum of the application record is on the rise.
And that its planned supplies for 2027-2028 will not fully meet customer demand. That's really great.
第三，强劲的经济效益和良好的现金创造能力。Al-Arkan的数据显示，资本回报率约为38%，净利润率为30%。这里的结果不错。
Number three, strong economics and good cash generation. Al-Arkan's data shows a return on capital of approximately 38% and a net profit margin of 30%. Good results here.
在最坏的情况下，这一估值几乎没有给失望留下空间。“Al-Arkan”的数据显示，ASML的市盈率为40到54倍，自由现金流为57倍。需求和利润具有周期性。各位，这是最重要的一点。
芯片行业具有高度周期性。这意味着它会经历周期，上下起伏，上下起伏。这一点极其重要。这些公司处于“要么吃饱、要么挨饿”的境地。
In the worst-case scenario, the assessment leaves little room for disappointment. The data from “Al-Arkan” puts ASML at a price-to-earnings ratio of 40-54 times, and 57 times for free cash flow.
Demand and profits are cyclical. This is the most important thing, guys. The chip industry is highly cyclical. This means that it goes through cycles, up and down , up and down .
This is extremely important. It's a "bread or famine" situation in these companies.
第三，实施层面的地缘政治风险很大。出口限制可能会限制对部分客户的销售或服务，而复杂的监管和受限的供应链使扩大产能变得困难。
Third, the geopolitical risks of implementation are significant. Export restrictions may limit sales or services to some customers , while complex regulations and restricted supply chains make expanding production capacity difficult.
就像在Nvidia身上一样，我们有六个勾和两个叉。一切看起来都不错；事实上，它们的流通股数量处于与Nvidia相当的水平。
Just like in Nvidia , we have six checkmarks and two crossmarks . Everything looks good; in fact, their outstanding share count is at a level comparable to Nvidia's.
嘿，各位，看看这个。从每股43美元到未来四年的每股109美元。目前，股价在1600多美元的水平。如果你给公司2030年的盈利分配22倍的市盈率，你看到的是……这是什么？估值达到每股2400美元。
嗯，还不错。这家公司目前是1600美元。这算是在四年里增长50%？嗯，在人工智能的世界里，这并没有你想象的那么了不起。
Hey guys, look at this. From $43 per share to $109 per share in the next four years. Right now, the stock is currently at the level of $1600 and some change. If you assign a price-to-earnings ratio of 22 to the company's earnings in 2030, you are looking at...what is this?
Valued at $2400 per share. Well, not bad. This company is currently at $1600. That's 50% growth in what, 4 years? Well, it's not as big a deal as you might think in the world of artificial intelligence.
营收从490亿增长到900亿，四年内几乎翻倍。这大约是15%、也许16%的营收增长。营收增长，亲爱的，8、12和16个周期。我仍然认为12可能太高了，但我们暂时接受它。对于利润率和自由现金流利润率，我设定为23、26和29。
对于十年后的市盈率，我设定为17、20和23。各位，我不骗你们，这个数字可能偏低，因为它们的资本回报率非常高而且在改善。甚至直到十年后的数字，排除最后五年，仍然在两位数区间。所以，这可能是一个偏低的数字，但我目前对它满意。
Revenues are growing from 49 billion to 90 billion, almost doubling in 4 years. This is revenue growth of about 15%, maybe 16%. Revenue growth, 8, 12 and 16 cycles, my dear. I still think 12 might be too high, but we accept it for now.
For profit margin and free cash flow margin , I set 23, 26 and 29. For the price-to-earnings ratio 10 years from now, I set 17, 20 and 23 . Guys, I'm not going to lie to you, this number may be low because their returns on capital are very high and improving.
Even up to the number 10 years, excluding the last 5 years, it is still in the tens category. So, this may be a low number, but I am satisfied with it at the moment.
当然，以9.5%的回报率和没有安全边际，我按下了分析按钮。当前股价是1670。我给出的低价是550，高价是1585，平均价是940，这意味着如果我的平均假设成立，根据未来十年的贴现现金流模型，我看到的年回报率大约为2.6%。
这可不是那种会让我兴奋得从床上跳起来的数字。不过，你可能会觉得我的假设太低了。这很可能就是事实。我在增长假设上往往比大多数人更保守。
And of course, with a 9.5 percent return rate and no safety margin, I pressed the analyze button. The current share price is 1,670. I have a low price of 550, a high price of 1,585, and an average price of 940, which means that if my average assumptions are met, I am looking at an annual return of around 2.6% according to the discounted cash flow model for the next ten years.
It's not something that would make me jump out of bed with excitement . However, you might think my assumptions are too low . This may well be the case. I tend to be more conservative in my growth assumptions than most people.