CELH 的盈利潜力远超短期风险：在约 28 美元时，它可能涨破 35 美元，最坏情况跌至 25 美元，长期则可能价值超过 100 美元。在预期偏低的情况下（本季度营收增长 10%，随后为 6%、6%、8%），它必须让投资者相信其能持续实现两位数增长；下调指引是一种危险。
逐段跳播
我们会讨论 AMD 股票、Meta、Celsius、ELF、SoFi 和 Amazon 的潜在情景。
And we'll talk about the potential scenarios for AMD stock, Meta, Celsius, ELF, SoFi, and Amazon.
接下来是 Celsius。Celsius 的情况是这样的，好吧？如果你考虑 Celsius 的短期风险和收益，潜在的收益远远大于风险。
Next comes Celsius. This is the thing about Celsius, okay? If you think about short-term risk and profit in the case of Celsius, the potential for profit far outweighs the risk.
我认为，如果一切顺利，请记住 Celsius 还没有公布财报日期。他们很可能会在 11 月第一周或第二周发布财报。
I think if everything is going well, keep in mind that Celsius has not yet announced the date of their earnings report. They will likely release earnings reports in the first or second week of November.
Celsius 股价可能涨到 35 美元以上。现在是 28 美元，对吧？在我看来，最坏情况下 Celsius 股价可能跌到 25 美元。所以，我绝对认为 Celsius 潜在的收益远远大于风险。
Celsius shares could go above $35. Now it's $28 , right? In my opinion, Celsius' share price could drop to $25 in a worst-case scenario. So, I definitely see the potential for profit far outweighing the risk in Celsius.
目前，Celsius 对公开账户来说是一笔小额盈利投资，大约 13000 美元。这不算什么。我认为长期来看 Celsius 会是一只价值超过 100 美元的股票。我已经记录下这一点了。我们走着瞧，好吧？
Currently, Celsius is a small profitable investment for public accounts, around $13,000. It's nothing. I think Celsius will be a stock worth over $100 in the long term. I have already recorded this. We'll see, okay?
预期非常低，预计他们本季度营收增长 10%，下季度 6%，再下季度 6%，再下季度 8%。Celsius 只需要给投资者信心，让他们相信这是一个每季度都实现两位数或更高增长的故事。
如果他们能在电话会议上向投资者保证这是一个持续实现两位数营收增长的故事，你就不必担心这只股票，它会飞起来。我们看看这只股票是否会接近 35 美元或突破 35 美元水平，对吧？
Very low expectations, they are expected to report 10% revenue growth this quarter , 6% next quarter, 6% the next , and 8% the next. Celsius just needs to give investors the confidence that it is a story of double-digit or higher growth every quarter.
If they can assure investors on conference calls that this is a story of consistent double-digit revenue growth, you don't have to worry about the stock , it will fly. And we'll see if the stock gets close to $35 or crosses the $35 level , right?
现在，如果 Celsius 表示：“嘿，你知道，我们未来几个季度的营收可能会略低一些。”那我们就会陷入危险，对吧？
Now, if Celsius indicates, "Hey, you know, our revenue might be a little lower in future quarters." Then we will be in danger, right ?
但凭什么让你相信 Celsius 的营收会增加？第一，品牌分销更广。第二，国际扩张。目前，这个问题受到的重视非常少。我的私人群里很多成员住在美国以外。所以，我们私人群大约 60% 的成员是美国公民，大约 40% 的成员是国际成员，尤其是群里有很多欧洲成员。
因此，在国际上我们看到 Celsius 在扩张，尤其是在欧洲。我们在欧洲越来越多的商店里发现它。所以，这是值得记住的一点，我认为很多人在这里忘记了这一点。
But what makes you believe that Celsius' revenue will increase ? First, greater distribution of the brand. Second, international expansion. Currently, very little importance is being given to the issue.
And many of the members of my private group live outside the United States. So, about 60% of our private group members are US citizens and about 40% of the members are international, especially since there are many European members in the group.
And so, internationally we're seeing Celsius expanding, especially in Europe. And we are finding it in more and more stores in Europe. So, this is something to keep in mind, I think many people are forgetting that here.
近年来，国际扩张对 Monster 来说意义巨大。近年来这显然对 Red Bull 也意义巨大。这对 Celsius 来说也应该意义巨大。
International expansion has been huge for Monster in recent years. This has obviously been huge for Red Bull in recent years. And that should be huge for Celsius too.
另外，Alani 的增长极其高。我们说的是大约70%的销量增长。这是个高得离谱的数字，对吧？所以，尽管 Celsius 最近在美国的数据非常疲软，对吧？连 Nielsen 的数据都显示下滑，但不要因为这一点就以为 Celsius 没有别的增长途径。
而且更重要的是，Celsius 正在美国减少 SKU，精简产品线。所以，我认为很多人只是想当然地觉得：“哦，因为 Nielsen 的数据对 Celsius 品牌在美国的表现很糟糕，所以他们不可能增长。”
然后就会有人说：“那你看到 A Shoc 能源的增长了吗？”它正在成为整体业务中规模庞大且不断增长的一部分。你明白国际上正在发生什么吗？所以，就 Celsius 而言，这一点值得记住，因为这些数字很可能最终会被超越。
Additionally, Alani's growth is incredibly high. We are talking about a volume growth of about 70%. That's a sky-high number, right? So, although the recent numbers for Celsius in the United States were very weak, right?
Even Nielsen's data shows a decline, but do n't assume that just because of this, there is no other way for Celsius to grow. And what's more , Celsius is reducing their SKUs in the US and streamlining them.
So, I think a lot of people are just assuming, "Oh, because Nielsen's data is bad for the Celsius brand in the US, it's not possible for them to grow." And then it's like, "Well, have you seen the growth of A shock energy?"
And it's becoming a large and growing part of the overall business. Do you understand what is happening internationally? So , it's worth keeping that in mind in the case of Celsius, as these numbers are likely to eventually be surpassed.
关于像 Celsius 这样的公司，我还想说的一点是，在这种情况下，我不想陷入细枝末节而忽略重点。很多时候人们过于关注这些短期数字，纠结 Celsius 到底有没有达成目标，还是失败了？
听着，Celsius 是一个长期的、我是说10年的机会，对吧？所以，Celsius 的营收增长是7%还是15%，下一季度的预测是3%、0%、6%、9%、10%还是20%，又有什么关系呢？
我们不要太担心短期问题，因为这是一个会持续10年以上的机会。当你谈论打造一个饮料品牌时，你想到的是为子孙后代去打造它。他们正在努力建立一个会在未来10年、20年、30年都热爱 Celsius 的客户群，对吧？
他们正在努力为“A Shoc”产品建立一个会在未来10年、20年、30年都热爱这款产品的客户群，对吧？而不是未来10周、20周、30周。这一点很重要，要记住，因为有时候人们太忙于短期的事情，对吧？
And the other thing I would say with a company like Celsius is that this is a situation where I don't want to get bogged down in the minutiae and avoid the main point. Many times people get too concerned with these short-term numbers , wondering whether Celsius has achieved its goals or has it failed?
Listen, Celsius is a long-term, I mean 10-year opportunity, right? So, what does it matter if Celsius' revenue growth is 7% or 15%, and the forecast for the next quarter is 3%, 0%, 6%, 9%, 10% or 20% ?
Let's not worry too much about short-term issues, because this is an opportunity that will last more than 10 years. When you talk about building a drink brand , you think about building it for generations to come.
They're trying to build a customer base that will love Celsius for the next 10, 20, 30 years , right ? They're trying to build a customer base for the 'A Shoc' product that will love this product for the next 10, 20, 30 years , right?
Not for the next 10, 20, 30 weeks. This is important to remember because sometimes people get too busy with short-term things, right?
观察点
这个频道对 $CELH 的历次判断
Financial Education 在这只股票上共 14 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。