$GOOGL · Stock Market Mentor · 2026-10-30
说话者认为 GOOGL 的黄金时期已过，且在任何值得持有的领域都不领先；利润低于预期，自由现金流因支出沉重而下降 91 亿，预期为 35 亿。最小阻力方向向下，他预计会进一步下跌，但不会跌到 140 美元，且对缺口回补没有看法；若股价开始上涨，他会放弃看空观点。
逐段跳播
但关键在于：你必须关注 Alphabet、Meta、Amazon 和 Intel。Alphabet 经历了20年来最糟糕的一天。
But here's the thing: you have to look at Alphabet , Meta, Amazon, and Intel. Alphabet had its worst day in 20 years.
我跟你说，我今天跟一个人聊过，他说：“天哪，Google。”嘿，朋友，你不觉得这是个很好的买入机会吗？我告诉他们：“不，我不这么认为。”
And I'll tell you this, I talked to someone today who was saying, "Man, Google." Hey buddy, don't you think this is a good buying opportunity? I told them, "No, I don't think so."
他们的回应是：“是的，但这只是，是的，SEO 做得不好。”就好像没人用 Google 搜索一样。“而且哦，他们还有很多其他东西，他们有张量处理单元（TPU），他们有这个那个。”
Their response was, "Yes, but this is just, yes, bad SEO." It's as if no one uses Google for searching. "And oh, you know , they have lots of other things, they have Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), they have this and that."
所以，他们公布了亮眼的利润，还有这个那个。但他们真的做到了吗？事实上，他们的利润低于预期。
So, they announced great profits and this and that. Um, but did they really do that? In fact, their profits came in lower than expected.
哦，他们还有很多其他有利因素。但各位，Google 曾经真的被用在口语里。你好，在 Google 上搜一下就行了。现在，我觉得它看起来像颗星星或者类似的东西。我一开始也不知道他们是从哪儿弄来 Google 这个名字的。
你问我这个真是太傻了，不过也没人问过我。重点是，我已经想不起来上次点击广告页面上的蓝色超链接是什么时候了，而现在的情况就是这样。
Oh, they have a lot of other things working in their favor. But guys, Google was once actually used in speech. Hello, just search for it on Google. Now, I think it looks like a star or something like that .
I don't know where they got the name Google from in the first place. It's very silly of you to ask me, but nobody has asked me. The point is , I can't remember the last time I clicked on a blue hyperlink on an advertising page, which is what it's like now.
我认为这家公司最好的日子已经过去了。是的，他们确实在做所有这些其他事情。他们正处于竞争之中，但参与竞争和引领竞争是两回事，而他们并没有引领，至少在我愿意涉足的任何领域都没有。
I think the best days of this company are over. Yes, they do all of these other things. They are in the midst of competition, but being in competition is different from leading it , and they are not leading, at least not in any field I would want to be in.
昨天，我今天早些时候提到过，这只股票不适合买入。你可能会说：“哦，它只跌了1%。”是的，是的。那么，我认为它会进一步下跌吗？我不知道，但我期待下周能成为一个出于交易目的买入的好机会。
但我认为他会这么做吗？除非他们进入生物技术领域，找到治愈死亡的办法。他们不会这么做的，而且我认为这是一张周线图。我认为你最多能指望的就是，如果你……我不建议买入这只股票，我对此完全不感兴趣，但每个人的交易方式都略有不同。
如果你打算下周买入，别想着：“哦，它会补上缺口的。”真的吗？你想赌这个吗？你的赌注会下到多大？我认为它最终会补上缺口吗？我完全不知道。说真的，我不知道。别误会我，我还没对 Google 悲观到认为它会“跌到140美元”。
说真的，我不知道。我不知道，我也不会跟你说别的，而且我通常不喜欢对纯粹只是观点的事情发表意见。这里3月份的上一个低点大约就在当前股价水平。因此，从技术角度看，价格上涨是合理的。
涨到多高？我不知道。我想说的就这些，因为我当然不是在说“周一买入”。那可能对，也可能不对。另外，还要看周末会发生什么，如果真有什么事的话，因为你知道，伊朗非常想达成协议。国家。
这个我就不多说了。无论如何，我们可能会看到这波上涨，但它也可能先向下跳空。所以，你应该做的是盯住价格走势，但不要对这里出现大幅波动抱太大希望。
Yesterday I mentioned earlier today that this is not for purchase. Well, you might say, "Oh, it only dropped by 1%." Yes, yes. Now, do I think it will drop further? I don't know, but I'm looking forward to next week as a good opportunity to buy for trading purposes.
But do I think he will do this? Only if they enter the field of biotechnology and find a cure for death . They won't do that, and I think this is a weekly chart. I think the best you can hope for is if you...
I don't recommend buying this, and I'm not interested in it at all, but everyone trades a little differently. If you're going to buy it next week, don't think, "Oh, it'll fill the gap." truly ?
Do you want to bet on that? How far will your bets go? Do I think it will eventually bridge the gap ? I have no idea. Seriously, I don't know . Don't misunderstand me, I'm not so pessimistic about Google that I think it will "drop to $140".
Seriously, I don't know. I don't know, and I won't tell you otherwise, and I don't usually like to give opinions on things that are really just an opinion. The last low here from March is located approximately at the current stock level.
Therefore, from a technical point of view , it would make sense for the price to rise. how far? I don't know. Um, that's all I wanted to say about it because I'm certainly not saying "buy on Monday".
That may be true , and it may not be. Also, depending on what happens over the weekend, if anything happens, because you know, Iran is very keen to make a deal. Nations. I won't say any more about that.
In any case, we may witness this rise, but it may fall with a gap first. So, what you should do is monitor the price movement, but don't get your hopes up for a huge move here.
现在，如果你是长期投资者，那没问题，你想买就可以买，但我刚才还跟 Brent 聊了聊这个。顺便说一句，你还记得我当时根据它当时的走势说过“到秋天价格会到500”吗？结果证明那是个错误，事实上是个巨大的错误。
也许它会先到50，再到500。但我当时说，你几乎可以假定存在一个头肩形态。我看着这个，我说的是花园水管，看起来水正从水管末端流出来。这就是我看到的，这就是我看到的。我还想说这一点。
这证明，这向我们表明，波动率的下降可能以一轮下跌告终。并不是每一次波动率下降都会带来向上突破，而我喜欢这种形态的向上突破。因此，很容易相信“它们都会那样做”。不，你应该意识到，波动率下降意味着缺乏上下波动，但到了某个时候，这种缺乏波动会消失。
换句话说，会出现向上和向下的波动，而且并不总是向上。所以，这就是其中一种情况。如果你说：“哦，好吧，我是长期投资者，所以这是我买入的机会。”我不会那么做。我不会那么做；因为重要的不是你持有股票的时间长短。
重要的是你买入股票之后会发生什么。你可以在这里买入股票，然后它最终涨到这里，你会非常开心。但如果它到现在都还没做到呢？我的意思是，这是你们需要非常认真对待的事情之一。你应该看着这个说：“阻力最小的方向是向下。”
这东西从楼的一侧掉了下来，正在寻找地面，但还没找到。所以，别再误会我了，别说什么“哦，Dan 对 Google 非常悲观”。我不知道。我认为它会进一步下跌，但如果这只股票开始重新上涨，我也不会对它悲观。
我知道，我在交易上经验越多，对市场就越中立。我只是觉得，市场最终比我懂得多得多。
Now, if you are a long-term investor, that's fine, you can buy if you want, but I was just talking to Brent about this a little while ago. And by the way, do you remember when I said "the price will be 500 by the fall" based on how it was trading at the time?
Well, it turns out that this was a mistake, a huge mistake in fact. Um, maybe it will reach 50 before it reaches 500. But I was saying that you can almost assume there is a head and shoulders pattern.
I'm looking at this, and I'm talking about a garden hose, and it looks like water is flowing from the end of the hose. Um, that's what I see, that's what I see. And I also want to say this.
This proves, this shows us that the decline in volatility can end in a downturn. Not every dip in volatility leads to an upward breakout, and I like upward breakouts of this pattern.
Therefore, it's easy to believe that "they will all do that ". No, you should realize that the decline in volatility means the absence of upward and downward movement, but at some point this absence of movement will disappear.
In other words, there will be upward and downward movements, and not always in an upward direction . So, this is one of those cases. If you say, "Oh, well, I'm a long-term investor, so this is my chance to buy."
I will not do that. I will not do that; Because what matters is not the length of time you hold the stock. What matters is what happens after you buy the stock. You can buy the stock here, and then eventually it will rise to here and you will be really happy.
But what if he hasn't done that up to this point? I mean, this is one of those things you guys need to take very seriously. You should look at this and say: "The path of least resistance is downward."
This thing fell from the side of a building and is searching for the ground but has not found it yet. So, don't misunderstand me again, like saying, "Oh, Dan is very pessimistic about Google."
I don't know. I think it will fall further, but if the stock starts to rise again, I won't be pessimistic about it . I know, the more experience I have in trading, the more neutral I become towards the market.
I just feel that the market ultimately knows a lot more than I do.
但你可以看到，他们在这里失败了。他们的自由现金流减少了91亿，而预期是35亿。这意味着，如果他们的现金流是预期的三倍，他们就会在事情上花巨额资金。这是大量花在基本上没用的东西上的钱，好吗？
But you can see that they failed here. Their free cash flow decreased by 9.1 billion compared to the expected 3.5 billion. This means they spend huge amounts of money on things if their cash flow is three times what was expected.
This is a lot of spending on things that are basically useless, okay?
所以，我感觉这只是我在告诉你，我认为人工智能对你来说是好事。对我也一样。但所有这些傻瓜都在往里面投几十亿美元，指望着事情能顺利，但愿如此。我觉得看着这一切会很有趣，也就是说，如果你有点施虐倾向的话。
So, I feel like this is just me telling you that I think artificial intelligence is great for you. It's great for me . But all these fools are investing all these billions of dollars in it, hoping that things will go well, God willing.
I think watching this will be fun, that is, if you're a bit of a sadist.