$META · The Compound · 2026-10-27
在 Meta 最高 600 亿美元的新 C 类股票按市价发行结束之前，它不是可以加仓的股票，因为上涨驱动的抛售可能压制涨幅；此前公司已从大规模回购转向 950 亿美元融资，说话者是在解释而非认可这笔算力押注。
逐段跳播
这两家公司是 Alphabet，通过 Google Gemini，以及现在的 Meta，通过其 Muse Agent 平台。
These two companies are Alphabet through Google Gemini, and now Meta through its Muse Agent platform.
如果 Jacey 成功兑现，像 Meta 那样对资本支出指引设定上限，并证明 AWS 收入超过支出，股价可能达到275美元。
If Jacey succeeds in delivering, keeps a cap on capital expenditure guidance as Meta did, and proves that AWS revenues outperform spending, the stock price could reach $275.
Meta 特别委员会主席 Richard Kemerly 表示，其他知名公司近期的大规模增资已经造成了一个日益困难的融资环境，而这是针对 Meta 而言。他们正寻求通过股票筹集950亿美元。
不用说，这是上市公司有史以来规模最大的融资活动之一，如果不是最大的话。我认为他们以前从未做过这样的事。所以他们认为出售股票更便宜，这既有趣又有些令人不安，因为这可能意味着该集团其余部分的处境。
Richard Kemerly, chairman of the special committee at Meta, said that recent large capital increases at other prominent companies have created an increasingly difficult environment for raising capital , and this is with regard to Meta.
They are looking to raise $95 billion from shares . Needless to say, it is one of the largest fundraising campaigns ever for a publicly traded company , if not the largest. I don't think they've ever done anything like this before.
So they believe that selling shares is cheaper, which is both interesting and somewhat frightening in terms of what this might mean for the rest of the group.
这次 IPO 正在发生的情况，连同 Meta 的 IPO——它紧随今年早些时候 Google 的 IPO——是公开市场投资者被要求为人工智能的建设买单，而这越来越令信贷市场担忧。
价格不仅关乎股票本身，还关乎这些股票将不可避免地代表公司中不断减少的股份这一事实。
What is happening with this IPO, along with Meta's IPO which followed Google's earlier IPO this year, is that public market investors are being asked to pay for the construction of artificial intelligence that is increasingly worrying the credit market.
The price is not just about the shares themselves , but the fact that those shares will inevitably represent a constantly decreasing stake in the company.
看看……看看，把“Meta”股票的波动率放出来。这太疯狂了。这是2026年。所以，我认为这只股票自年初以来下跌了6%左右。但最初它上涨了22%，然后下跌30%，然后上涨31%，下跌20%，上涨26%，下跌21%，在 Metamucil 热潮期间从最低点上涨了44%，然后全部回吐。
它下跌了20%。这段旅程令人恐惧，极其恶心，而这一切换来的却是自年初以来的负回报。
Look at...look at, put the volatility of "Meta" stocks. This is crazy. This is 2026. So, I think the stock is down 6% since the beginning of the year or something like that. But initially it rose by 22%, then fell by 30%, then rose by 31%, fell by 20%, rose by 26%, fell by 21%, and gained 44% from its lowest levels during the Metamucil boom, then lost all of that.
It has decreased by 20%. This trip has been terrifying and extremely disgusting, all for a negative return since the beginning of the year.
但如果把利润和这张图放在一起看，就显得不合逻辑。利润的走势是渐进的，而这张图看起来就像有人忘了吃双相情感障碍的药。我们……我们基本上都是在猜。好。关于 Meta 增加资本这件事，不知道你有没有看法。
我觉得分析一下会很有意思。所以，他们将发行 A 类普通股，也就是普通股。他们把发行规模提高到了 250 亿。所以，在 1000 亿里，就算 950 亿吧，其中 250 亿就是普通股，直接按每股 625 的价格发行。
他们把这个价格定下来了。需求非常旺盛。所以这方面没有问题。股价，我是说股价……市场上交易的股价立刻跌到了 625，这当然发生了。但如果你想通过股票融资，这就是你要付出的代价。优先股，现金股息 6.5%。
它们将在 2029 年前转换为普通股。嗯，他们在这批可转换优先股上花了 125 亿。发行价是每股 50 美元。因此，它本质上相当于 A 类普通股的 1/20 股。
But, if you plot this with the profits, it looks illogical. The profits are moving in a gradual pattern, and this is like someone who has lost their bipolar disorder medication .
We all...we all largely guess . Okay . Regarding the increase in Meta's capital, I don't know if you have an opinion on this. I thought it would be interesting to analyze it. So, they will issue Class A ordinary shares, which are just ordinary shares.
They have increased the size of the offering to 25 billion. So, out of 100 billion, let's say, or 95 billion, 25 billion would be just ordinary shares directly at a price of 625 per share.
They put it down. They had a huge demand. So, there is no problem there. The stock, I mean the stock... the stock that is traded on the market immediately dropped to 625, which of course happened .
But this is the price you pay if you want to raise capital through stocks. Preferred shares, with cash dividends of 6.5 percent. They will convert to common stock by 2029. Um, they spent 12.5 billion on those convertible preferred shares .
It was issued at a price of $50 per share . Therefore, it essentially becomes a 1/20 share in Series A common stock.
然后他们实施了一个市场抛售计划，交易者很讨厌这个，因为它变成了一种悬而未决的负担。嗯，他们有一个最高 600 亿的市场抛售计划，这意味着他们可以随时发行上周新创建的 C 类股票。
所以如果你是股东，正在考虑这件事，那么任何时候有好消息出来、股价上涨，他们就立刻卖出。他们向你大量倾泻更多股票，把涨势毁掉。所以，如果你打算从现在到年底持有“七巨头”中的某一只股票，你不会想持有一只挂着 600 亿待售、等着任何上涨的股票。
他们只向投资者抛出其中一小部分。他们知道什么？这是一个压在这只股票上的负面负担。嗯，他们不在乎，因为扎克伯格四十多岁，想的是未来两百年，或者他认为自己能活多久。我不知道他在为什么训练。
所以他不担心这个。但如果你是股票市场投资者，追求收益，想跑赢基准指数之类的东西，那么在这一切结束之前，你不会想增加对那只股票的敞口。这是一家从大量回购自家股票变成停止回购的公司。
而现在它在大量卖出股票。这是对这个故事的另一种解读。
Then they implemented a market selling program, which traders hate because it becomes a pending burden. Um, they have a market sale program of up to 60 billion, which means they can offer shares of this new Class C that they created last week whenever they want.
So if you're a shareholder and you're thinking about it, any time good news comes out and the stock goes up, they sell immediately. They flood you with more stocks and destroy the price rise.
So if you intend to own one of the "Great Seven" stocks between now and the end of the year, you don't want to own a stock that has $60 billion on the market waiting for any upward move.
They are only throwing a small portion of it at investors. What do they know? It is a negative burden that hangs over this stock. Well, they don't care because Zuckerberg is in his forties and is thinking about the next two hundred years, or however long he thinks he will live.
I don't know what he's training for. So he is not worried about that. But if you are a stock market investor looking for gains , trying to outperform a benchmark index or something similar, you don't want to increase your exposure to that stock until that's over.
This is a company that went from repurchasing huge quantities of its own shares to stopping. And now she is selling huge quantities of shares. It's a different take on the story.
我就是在看 Meta，是的，你知道吗？他们回购了大量自家股票。嗯。我是说，他们在做他们该做的事。你可能不喜欢，我也没说你应该喜欢，但这是资源配置。这就像……你看，他们认为自己身处一场生死攸关的竞赛。
我不认为这关乎能否获得通用人工智能之类的东西。这单纯就是要么拥有算力，要么得为算力付钱。他们不想被迫付钱。他们想拥有它。好，我们不说这是不是正确的押注，但我是在解释什么叫押注，而如果他们是这么想的，他们就会去做。
I'm just looking at Meta, yes, you know? They have repurchased a lot of their shares. Hmm. I mean, they are doing what they are supposed to do. You may not like it , and I'm not saying you should , but resource allocation.
This is like...look, they think they're in an existential race. I don't think it's about access to artificial general intelligence or anything like that . It's simply a matter of either having the computing power or having to pay for it.
They don't want to have to pay for it. They want to own it. Okay, let's not say it will be the right bet, but I'm explaining what a bet is, and if that's how they think, they'll do it .
这个频道对 $META 的历次判断
The Compound 在这只股票上共 5 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。