Agree to our Terms of Service, Privacy Notice and YouTube Terms of Service to continue.

$META

The Compound on $META (Oct 27, 2026)

AI summary · The Compound

Meta is not a stock to add until its up-to-$60 billion at-the-market sale of new Class C shares is over, since rally-driven selling can cap gains; this follows a shift from large buybacks to a $95 billion capital raise, and the speaker explains rather than endorses the compute bet.

BearishHe framed it in months
“Josh’s “Dirty Dozen” Stock Charts | WAYT?”
The CompoundPublished Oct 27 · 8 passages

Jump to any passage

8 passages
15:5839:10

These two companies are Alphabet through Google Gemini, and now Meta through its Muse Agent platform.

If Jacey succeeds in delivering, keeps a cap on capital expenditure guidance as Meta did, and proves that AWS revenues outperform spending, the stock price could reach $275.

Richard Kemerly, chairman of the special committee at Meta, said that recent large capital increases at other prominent companies have created an increasingly difficult environment for raising capital , and this is with regard to Meta.

They are looking to raise $95 billion from shares . Needless to say, it is one of the largest fundraising campaigns ever for a publicly traded company , if not the largest. I don't think they've ever done anything like this before.

So they believe that selling shares is cheaper, which is both interesting and somewhat frightening in terms of what this might mean for the rest of the group.

What is happening with this IPO, along with Meta's IPO which followed Google's earlier IPO this year, is that public market investors are being asked to pay for the construction of artificial intelligence that is increasingly worrying the credit market.

The price is not just about the shares themselves , but the fact that those shares will inevitably represent a constantly decreasing stake in the company.

Look at...look at, put the volatility of "Meta" stocks. This is crazy. This is 2026. So, I think the stock is down 6% since the beginning of the year or something like that. But initially it rose by 22%, then fell by 30%, then rose by 31%, fell by 20%, rose by 26%, fell by 21%, and gained 44% from its lowest levels during the Metamucil boom, then lost all of that.

It has decreased by 20%. This trip has been terrifying and extremely disgusting, all for a negative return since the beginning of the year.

But, if you plot this with the profits, it looks illogical. The profits are moving in a gradual pattern, and this is like someone who has lost their bipolar disorder medication .

We all...we all largely guess . Okay . Regarding the increase in Meta's capital, I don't know if you have an opinion on this. I thought it would be interesting to analyze it. So, they will issue Class A ordinary shares, which are just ordinary shares.

They have increased the size of the offering to 25 billion. So, out of 100 billion, let's say, or 95 billion, 25 billion would be just ordinary shares directly at a price of 625 per share.

They put it down. They had a huge demand. So, there is no problem there. The stock, I mean the stock... the stock that is traded on the market immediately dropped to 625, which of course happened .

But this is the price you pay if you want to raise capital through stocks. Preferred shares, with cash dividends of 6.5 percent. They will convert to common stock by 2029. Um, they spent 12.5 billion on those convertible preferred shares .

It was issued at a price of $50 per share . Therefore, it essentially becomes a 1/20 share in Series A common stock.

Then they implemented a market selling program, which traders hate because it becomes a pending burden. Um, they have a market sale program of up to 60 billion, which means they can offer shares of this new Class C that they created last week whenever they want.

So if you're a shareholder and you're thinking about it, any time good news comes out and the stock goes up, they sell immediately. They flood you with more stocks and destroy the price rise.

So if you intend to own one of the "Great Seven" stocks between now and the end of the year, you don't want to own a stock that has $60 billion on the market waiting for any upward move.

They are only throwing a small portion of it at investors. What do they know? It is a negative burden that hangs over this stock. Well, they don't care because Zuckerberg is in his forties and is thinking about the next two hundred years, or however long he thinks he will live.

I don't know what he's training for. So he is not worried about that. But if you are a stock market investor looking for gains , trying to outperform a benchmark index or something similar, you don't want to increase your exposure to that stock until that's over.

This is a company that went from repurchasing huge quantities of its own shares to stopping. And now she is selling huge quantities of shares. It's a different take on the story.

I'm just looking at Meta, yes, you know? They have repurchased a lot of their shares. Hmm. I mean, they are doing what they are supposed to do. You may not like it , and I'm not saying you should , but resource allocation.

This is like...look, they think they're in an existential race. I don't think it's about access to artificial general intelligence or anything like that . It's simply a matter of either having the computing power or having to pay for it.

They don't want to have to pay for it. They want to own it. Okay, let's not say it will be the right bet, but I'm explaining what a bet is, and if that's how they think, they'll do it .

What this channel has said about $META

The Compound has 5 calls on this stock; only the adjacent ones are shown.

TickerSays