$MSFT · Rich Habits · 2026-10-30
我是 MSFT 的买家,尽管 AI 资本开支巨大,仍预计其盈利很可能非常好;6 万名员工的自愿离职加上数千亿美元的 AI 支出,通过提高人均回报对股东有利,不过他表示,这是靠裁员来为 AI 提供资金,而非来自 AI 收入增长,因此资本开支究竟会转化为 AI 利润,还是会抵消未来利润,仍未有定论。
逐段跳播
微软正向其全部员工中的四分之一提供自愿离职方案,对吧?有意思的是,Robert,“裁员”这个词在公告里根本没有出现。所以,这份方案是在本周某一天发给 60,000 名员工的,使其成为微软历史上规模最大的自愿离职计划。
Microsoft is offering voluntary exit packages to a quarter of their entire workforce, isn't that right? Now, interestingly, Robert, the word " layoff" doesn't appear anywhere in the advertisement.
So , the offer was sent out one day this week to 60,000 employees, making it the largest voluntary exit program in Microsoft's history.
人事经理 Amy Coleman 在给员工的备忘录中称这对公司而言是全新领域,并表示:“我们将从这次经历中学习。”
Personnel manager Amy Coleman described it as new territory for the company in her memo to employees, saying, "We will learn from this experience."
微软将某些部门排除在外,并表示参与与否取决于业务优先级,但仅这个数量本身就令人难以置信,不是吗?六万人。这不仅仅是缩减规模。这也不只是裁掉中层管理人员。这是一个非常庞大的项目。
Microsoft excludes certain departments and says participation depends on business priorities, but the sheer volume alone is unbelievable, isn't it? Sixty thousand people. This is not just a downsizing.
This is not simply, you know, getting rid of middle management. I mean, this is a very large project.
Google、Verizon 和 Intel 近年来都实施过类似的自愿离职计划。
Google, Verizon and Intel have all implemented similar voluntary exit programs in recent years.
微软去年四月已经通过一个规模较小的自愿退休计划实施过这种做法。我记得当时向 8,600 名员工提供了遣散费,其中超过 30% 的人接受了。微软预计这次的接受率会更低。
Microsoft had already implemented this approach last April through a smaller voluntary retirement program. I believe that severance pay was offered to 8,600 employees, and more than 30% of them accepted it.
Microsoft expects a lower acceptance rate this time.
为了说明规模,截至六月底,微软雇用了 223,000 人,即便在这一轮新计划开始之前,这已经比 2025 年底减少了 5,000 人。
To put the scale in context, Microsoft employed 223,000 people as of the end of June, a decrease of 5,000 from the end of 2025 even before this new round began.
别只听我这句话。微软绝对是一家百万百万美元的公司,或者说十亿十亿美元的公司。
Don't take this statement from me. Microsoft is definitely a million-million-dollar company, or billions-billion-dollar company.
我认为这里的主要数字不是 60,000。事实上,微软选择在自愿缩减人员的同时,将人工智能方面的资本支出增加到数千亿美元。数千亿美元,这才是人们应该担心的数字。这 60,000 这个数字只是它的一个副作用,不是吗?
如果你持有这只股票,那绝对是一个积极信号。这正是微软的用意。更少的员工、更多的人工智能支出、更高的人均回报:这是评估一家公司的一种根本而有效的方式。但我认为,这也等于承认,现在人工智能方面的支出是靠减少员工人数来支撑的,而不是靠人工智能收入、现金流和利润的不断增长。
因此,我认为投资者应关注两个关键区别。所有这些资本支出会转化为人工智能带来的收入和利润,还是我们正在通过裁掉 60,000 名员工来抵消未来潜在的利润?
I think the main figure here is not 60,000 . In fact, Microsoft has chosen to voluntarily downsize while increasing its capital expenditure on artificial intelligence to hundreds of billions.
Hundreds of billions, that's the number people should be worried about. This figure of 60,000 is a side effect of that, isn't it? If you own the stock, that is definitely a positive sign .
That's exactly what Microsoft had in mind. Fewer employees, more spending on artificial intelligence, and higher return per employee: this is a fundamental and effective way to evaluate a company.
But I see this as an admission that spending on artificial intelligence is now being funded by reducing the number of employees, rather than by the increasing growth in AI revenues, cash flows, and profits.
Therefore, I believe there are two key differences that investors should pay attention to. Will all this capital expenditure turn into revenue and profits from artificial intelligence, or are we offsetting potential future profits by getting rid of 60,000 employees?
因为归根结底很简单:对于微软和 Meta 这样的巨头公司,我们能做些什么来提高人均回报,从而提升盈利能力?既然我们是这些资产的买家,比如 Meta、Google 和微软,那么即便资本支出巨大,这也很可能对盈利非常有利。
because the bottom line is simply: what can we do with these huge companies, like Microsoft and Meta, to raise the return per employee and thus increase profitability? Since we are buyers of these assets, such as Meta, Google and Microsoft , it is likely to be very good for earnings, even with massive capital expenditure .
然后,在今天工作日结束时,我们有 Google、微软和 Amazon 的财报。
Then, at the end of today's workday, we have earnings reports from Google, Microsoft, and Amazon.
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