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$MSFT

Rich Habits on $MSFT (Oct 30, 2026)

AI summary · Rich Habits

The speaker is a buyer of MSFT and expects earnings likely very good despite massive AI capex; voluntary exits for 60,000 staff plus hundreds of billions in AI spending are positive for shareholders via higher return per employee, though he says this funds AI by cutting staff rather than from AI revenue growth, leaving open whether capex becomes AI profit or offsets future profits.

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Rich HabitsPublished Oct 30 · 10 passages

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9:2023:04

Microsoft is offering voluntary exit packages to a quarter of their entire workforce, isn't that right? Now, interestingly, Robert, the word " layoff" doesn't appear anywhere in the advertisement.

So , the offer was sent out one day this week to 60,000 employees, making it the largest voluntary exit program in Microsoft's history.

Personnel manager Amy Coleman described it as new territory for the company in her memo to employees, saying, "We will learn from this experience."

Microsoft excludes certain departments and says participation depends on business priorities, but the sheer volume alone is unbelievable, isn't it? Sixty thousand people. This is not just a downsizing.

This is not simply, you know, getting rid of middle management. I mean, this is a very large project.

Google, Verizon and Intel have all implemented similar voluntary exit programs in recent years.

Microsoft had already implemented this approach last April through a smaller voluntary retirement program. I believe that severance pay was offered to 8,600 employees, and more than 30% of them accepted it.

Microsoft expects a lower acceptance rate this time.

To put the scale in context, Microsoft employed 223,000 people as of the end of June, a decrease of 5,000 from the end of 2025 even before this new round began.

Don't take this statement from me. Microsoft is definitely a million-million-dollar company, or billions-billion-dollar company.

I think the main figure here is not 60,000 . In fact, Microsoft has chosen to voluntarily downsize while increasing its capital expenditure on artificial intelligence to hundreds of billions.

Hundreds of billions, that's the number people should be worried about. This figure of 60,000 is a side effect of that, isn't it? If you own the stock, that is definitely a positive sign .

That's exactly what Microsoft had in mind. Fewer employees, more spending on artificial intelligence, and higher return per employee: this is a fundamental and effective way to evaluate a company.

But I see this as an admission that spending on artificial intelligence is now being funded by reducing the number of employees, rather than by the increasing growth in AI revenues, cash flows, and profits.

Therefore, I believe there are two key differences that investors should pay attention to. Will all this capital expenditure turn into revenue and profits from artificial intelligence, or are we offsetting potential future profits by getting rid of 60,000 employees?

because the bottom line is simply: what can we do with these huge companies, like Microsoft and Meta, to raise the return per employee and thus increase profitability? Since we are buyers of these assets, such as Meta, Google and Microsoft , it is likely to be very good for earnings, even with massive capital expenditure .

Then, at the end of today's workday, we have earnings reports from Google, Microsoft, and Amazon.

Watchpoints

whether Microsoft's AI capital expenditure converts into AI revenue and profit

What this channel has said about $MSFT

Rich Habits has 5 calls on this stock; only the adjacent ones are shown.

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