MU 值得买入；尽管存在周期性估值担忧，但内存短缺将持续至 2028 年，支撑创纪录的利润和高利润率。

One of the biggest stories in AI business building here in 2026 is the memory shortage, and companies like Micron and SK Hynix are taking advantage of this imbalance in supply and demand.

So there was more good news for Micron stock investors , as the management team stated that 2027 and 2028 would likely be worse than 2026 in terms of supply and demand for customers.

This is good news for Micron, but not good news for customers. So I wanted to share these details with you from the management team, what they mean for investors, and let you know my opinion on Micron stock after the company announced these impressive quarterly financial results .

Do I still think it's a buying opportunity? Do I think it's time to start making profits? What is my estimate of the fair value of the stock ?

You can see the statement here from the Micron management team . For 2027 and 2028, they expect NAND shipments to grow by about 20%, and for the sector to continue to suffer from supply constraints during both years.

Similarly, for 2027 and 2028 , they expect DRAM memory to grow by about 20%, and for the sector to continue to suffer from supply constraints during those two years .

Therefore, there is likely to be another shortage in 2028 of memory and storage, products that Micron sells almost exclusively to the data center market. This is great news because we, as investors, already knew that the 2026 production had been completely sold out.

We were getting indications that 2027 would also be completely sold out . And now we hear that 2028 will most likely be sold out completely as well.

The shortage is likely to continue until 2029. Wow. This is the range that Micron can see based on its conversations with its customers and demand forecasts for several years into the future.

Even with all the additional manufacturing capacity being added, and with strong demand trends including new orders from customers, we do not have a clear view of when the balance between supply and demand will return. So, this is great news for Micron.

In response, they are of course adding more manufacturing capacity. They are planning to increase their capital expenditures in 2027 by much more than previously anticipated. A large part of that will be allocated to accelerating the availability of spaces for 2028 and beyond.

And I get some questions about, you know , why companies like Micron, SK Hynix and others aren't adding more production, right? Why don't they keep their production at the same level so that there is no excess supply , and thus they can continue to impose high selling prices and achieve record levels of profit margins?

When companies forecast their future , say they look three years ahead and anticipate a certain level of market demand, they try to determine whether they should add production lines to sell more products because demand is high, or maintain their production as is to sell products at higher prices.

When they consider this decision, they do not think about it independently as they focus only on themselves and their clients. But they also think about their competitors and what those competitors are likely to do.

So, if Micron comes out in its quarterly reports and says we will not add any more production capacity because we are concerned that this is a boom- bust cycle, and we do not want to add because we do not want to bear the consequences of this overproduction, then we will not add any more.

If that's the signal they're sending to the market, what do you think their competitors will do? Competitors who see this strong demand environment , with demand expected to increase by about 50% between now and 2030, when they see that their competitor will not add any manufacturing capacity, will feel more comfortable adding a lot of manufacturing capacity.

Therefore , manufacturing capacity is likely to be added to the market anyway. So , if Micron doesn't do it, its competitors will, Micron will lose market share, its competitors will gain a larger share, and ultimately it will be bad news for Micron.

So, this is an exercise in game theory. This is an exercise in assessing what your competitors will do based on what your competitors think you will do. If you send out signals like Micron does, saying that we will add more manufacturing capabilities than previously anticipated, what Micron hopes for is that its competitors will see that and say, "Oh, Micron is adding this much , so we shouldn't add so much." We should add a little less .

This is what Macron hopes to achieve through these estimates and statements he makes . Of course, you need to delve deeper than that when you think about these kinds of decisions, and when you think about this kind of give and take and signals between competitors.

It's not just about what Micron has done in the last quarter or two.

So its competitors are looking at the signals that Micron has sent out over many years, and how accurate those signals are , aren't they? If Micron continues to say it will add new manufacturing capabilities, but does not actually add them, its competitors will view Micron as a company that over- camouflages.

Her rivals evaluate Macron's statements and their accuracy over the past decade or more to determine their decisions and reactions to those decisions, don't they?

So, there are a lot of strategic options here that go beyond just looking at the short-term cyclical demand of the business, and I agree with what Micron is doing here. Taking everything into account when we think about strategically facing your competitors and maintaining a balance of market share and added supply to the industry compared to what is estimated to be demand.

So, despite all the debate about whether Micron is a cyclical company or not, the assessment leaves no room for doubt that it is a cyclical company. Micron, its revenues are skyrocketing.

Its profits are better than any company I've ever seen , aren't they?

Two consecutive quarters with an operating margin of over 80 percent, with expectations of this continuing into the next quarter, and it is selling at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 5.8.

That's about one-fifth the average price of the S&P 500 index.

The stock market is convinced that Micron is a cyclical company. Right now, isn't that right ? Perhaps in the future it may be revalued higher, but for now there is no doubt that the market is treating Micron as a cyclical business, where earnings per share and returns will decline as usual during the cycle.

Right now, we are in times of prosperity. There will be a recession, and earnings per share will decrease . This is what the market is convinced of when it looks at its valuation.

I also value the companies I follow using the discounted cash flow model, and for Micron, I value the business at $1,403. The current market price is $1097. Therefore, its value appears to be less than its true value, regardless of how the performance of this work is measured.

Therefore, after evaluating the company’s quarterly earnings results, reviewing the conference call, and reading the full transcript, I would reaffirm my “buy” rating with a high level of confidence and conviction in Micron stock.