$NBIS

说话者更看好 Nebius 并愿意继续持有:需求超过供给,暂缓投放的产能可获得短期溢价,预计到 2027 年将有数吉瓦的 Vera Rubin GPU 产能,其 Yandex 团队、Nvidia 的支持以及利润率较低的 Microsoft/Meta 交易帮助其实现规模扩张。他认为约 400 亿至 450 亿美元的估值按过去营收衡量偏贵,并指出融资、执行和时间线风险,同时将欧洲 AI 支出视为顺风。

看涨他说的是几年内
《This AI Infrastructure Boom Could Be Just Getting Started!》
The Motley Fool发布 2026-10-25 · 11 段内容
06:37/ —打开原视频

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11 段内容
6:3719:27

SpaceX 是否已经变得如此之大,以至于它可能会抢占一部分新兴云公司或规模较小的 AI 玩家(例如 Nebius、Korwef、Iron、Cipher 等)的份额?

Has SpaceX become so big that it might capture a share of emerging cloud companies or smaller AI players such as Nebius, Korwef, Iron, Cipher, etc.?

他们拥有与 Korwef 和 OpenAI,或 Nebius 和 Anthropic 同样全面的愿景。

They possess the same comprehensive vision as Korwef and OpenAI or Nebius and Anthropic.

但目前,如果你听听 Nebius 的说法,她也认为价格不会下降。需求仍然远远超过他们能够供应的量。当然,他们确实提供拍卖机制,所以你能看到市场上的情况,这有助于他们更好地为服务定价。

他们刻意不把全部产能卖出去。他们已经反复说过,我们完全可以按当前价格卖掉全部产能。但我们不想那样做,因为我们知道可以针对短期合同收取额外费用,这反过来又帮助他们增长得快得多。

But at the moment , if you listen to what Nebius says, she also believes that prices will not go down. There is still much more demand than they can supply. They do, of course, offer an auction system, so you can see what's happening in the market, and that helps them price their services better.

They deliberately do not sell their full capacity. They have said time and time again, we can sell our entire capacity at current prices. But we don't want that because we know we can charge extra fees for short-term contracts, which in turn helps them to grow much faster.

今天在柏林周三举行的 GTC 大会上,首席营收官表示,他们预计到 2027 年将有吉瓦级的 Vera Rubin GPU 产能投入运营。那是一年后将发挥作用的数百亿美元,再加上他们今天已有的一切。

Today at the GTC conference in Berlin on Wednesday, the Chief Revenue Officer stated that they expect to have gigawatts of Vera Rubin GPU capacity operational by 2027. That's tens of billions of dollars that will come into play a year from now, in addition to everything they have today.

我要提一个我早就知道的名字,就是“Nebeus”。哦,天哪。我知道这很令人震惊。Nebius 现在是一家市值约 400 亿至 450 亿美元的公司。从纸面上看,它显得很贵,因为过去十二个月产生的收入并不能真正反映公司未来的表现,但正如我所说,拥有一支非常优秀的、以工程为基础的团队非常重要。

他们做这项工作已经很多年了。他们前身是 Yandex,曾被称为“俄罗斯的谷歌”,现在他们转型成了这类公司,所以他们有经验。当然,他们也有必要的人才和技术知识。他们与 Nvidia 关系非常密切。

Nvidia 投资了那家公司。我得说,他们确实与 Microsoft 和 Meta 达成了一些不错的交易,这些交易利润率较低,但正如我们所说,这些交易让他们能够快得多地推进,并以比许多其他公司更好的条件筹集资金,这就是为什么他们现在能够利用这些他们可以收取的高价。

I'll mention the name I've known for a long time, which is "Nebeus". Oh, my God. It's shocking, I know. Nebius is now a company with a market capitalization of approximately $40 to $45 billion .

On paper, it looks expensive because the revenue they've generated over the past twelve months doesn't really reflect what the company will do , but as I said, it's very important to have a very good team, an engineering-based team.

They have been doing this work for many years. They were formerly Yandex, which used to be called "Russia's Google," and now they have transformed into this type of company, so they have the experience.

They have the necessary talents and technical knowledge, of course. They are very well associated with Nvidia. Nvidia has invested in that company. They did strike some good deals, I would say, with Microsoft and Meta, deals with low profit margins, but those deals allowed them, as we said, to move much faster, and raise capital at better rates than many other companies, and that is why they are now taking advantage of these high prices that they can charge.

当然,执行力再次是关键。当我们谈论这种大规模扩张时,有大量支出和大量资金需要筹集,而且你必须遵守时间表。你必须遵守向客户承诺的交付时间,但到目前为止一切进展顺利。到目前为止,他们做的正是他们应该做的事。

他们的总部也设在欧洲,所以我认为,如果欧洲开始加大 AI 基础设施支出,他们的位置很有利;他们完全有资格从中受益。当然,他们在美国、中东和世界其他地区也增长得很好。但没错,我在这里仍然会选择 Nephews。

Of course, execution is key again. When we talk about this massive expansion, there is a lot of spending and a lot of money that needs to be raised, and you have to stick to the timeline.

You have to adhere to the delivery time specified for your customers, but things are going well so far. Up to this point, they are doing exactly what they are supposed to do . They are also headquartered in Europe, so I think they are well-positioned if Europe starts spending more on AI infrastructure; they are perfectly qualified to benefit from that.

They are, of course, growing very well in the United States, in the Middle East, and in other parts of the world. But yes, I would still choose Nephews here.

我知道 SpaceX,我是说 SpaceX 制造火箭然后把它们回收。所以,他们当然知道如何建造东西,这是一个巨大的优势,尤其是在建造这些数据中心方面。因此,我会坚持我选择 Nepheus。

I know that SpaceX, I mean SpaceX builds rockets and then takes them back. So , of course they know how to build things, which is a huge advantage, especially in building these data centers.

Therefore, I will stick to my choice of Nepheus.

是的,是的。我的意思是,我不持有这家公司的股票,但我很欣赏它。正如我提到的,他们没有给你任何一个看空他们的理由。很好。我相信 SemiAnalysis 也把他们列入了白金类别。

所以,这确实凸显了他们的软件解决方案、他们的构建能力以及他们的易用性。

Yes, yes. I mean, I don't own shares in this company, but I admire it . As I mentioned, they didn't give you a single reason to bet against them. Good. I believe that SemiAnalysis also placed them in the Platinum category.

So, this really highlights their software solutions, their ability to build, and their ease of use.

如果有一件事,Neo,你希望在他们的财报结果中得到澄清。那么,有一件事,也许不是解释,而只是你希望了解更多或在财报公告期间听到的内容,对 Nepheus 来说会是什么?

If there's one thing, Neo, you'd like clarification on in their earnings results. So, one thing, perhaps not an explanation, but just something you'd like to know more about or hear during the earnings announcement, what would that be for Nepheus?

我认为,如果我们能获得更多关于进展情况的细节,融资问题在解决之前始终会是一个大问题。他们已经给了我们一些关于他们如何处理这个问题的暗示,我认为这很好。也许如果我们获得更多细节,也许是一些较大交易的利润率细节,可能会有帮助。

但归根结底,如果我看到基础业务越来越好,我并不真的需要去仔细审视并说:“哦,那是那笔交易的利润率,那是……”不,如果业务的整体状况在持续改善,那对我来说就完全合适。但没错,如果你要说我们预计将获得吉瓦级产能,或者每年增加吉瓦级产能,那么也许你应该准确告诉市场这将如何实现。30% 的业务交易、50% 的预付款,等等。

I think if we could get more details on how things are going, the issue of funding will always remain a big question until it is resolved. They have already given us some hints about how they are handling it, which I think is good.

Perhaps if we get more details, perhaps details of the profit margins for some of the larger deals might help. But ultimately, if I see that the underlying business is getting better and better , I don't really need to scrutinize and say, "Oh, that's the profit margin for that deal, and that's..."

No, if the overall profile of the business is consistently improving , that suits me perfectly . But yes, if you are going to say that we expect to get gigawatts of capacity, or add gigawatts of capacity every year, then perhaps you should tell the market exactly how that will happen. 30% of business transactions, 50% of advance payments, and so on.

通常,当你听到任何新的产能建设时,你会发现名单上总是提到两个名字:Coreweave 和 Nebius。

Typically, when you hear about any new production, you will find that two names are always mentioned in the list: Coreweave and Nebius.

观察点

Nebius 财报中的融资细节和整体业务状况
融资计划得到明确,且整体业务状况持续改善
下一份财报季度财报
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