由于西半球市场饱和，以及在内容消费习惯变化中面临结构性劣势，Netflix 的增长故事已经结束。

Okay, I want to talk about Netflix, the company we'll be discussing in a few moments. How many NFL games will Netflix be streaming in 2030? Part of the context here is that there are some exit clauses in the NFL contract near the end of this contract.

So, Lou, in 2030 and 2031, will they have more or less than 12 games a year?

I'll just try to be that person here. I think the answer might be " more," but I would say " less" because I'm not sure how much value all this will bring. Once again, they are conducting an experiment.

I'm not sure if they will ultimately say that this is the content or level of spending required to keep current subscribers satisfied. So, I wouldn't be surprised if they continued with live sports and other things , but they said, "You know what?"

"The NFL is not worth the cost, especially since everyone is already a member with us."

The problem with 12 games is if you think about what they're doing now, there are Monday night games. And there are Thursday night matches that are somewhat of a reason to watch.

Of course, as you know, the big competitor has Thursday night games on Amazon Prime. But the content or matches they have are very special events during holidays and the like, and I think that gives them an almost guaranteed audience.

When you start getting double-digit numbers, you'll run out of reasons for people to watch other than cheering on their team, won't you ? I believe this is one of the challenges in reaching this number.

Therefore, and for this reason, and since we are talking about a period of only four or five years, I choose "the least". I think they will stay closer to their current level.

This will be very interesting to follow , because I think the NFL believes it will get a huge raise if it cancels some of these deals, and I don't know who will pay for it. There is another context here, and I think I talked about it on the show , which is that Netflix and the Christmas game you were talking about, Jason, was a Vikings game, my favorite team.

I was having lunch while the match was being broadcast. Netflix is a digital streaming company . I thought I would watch the match after I finished eating, but on Netflix of all places, the match simply disappeared.

Yes, it felt like we had gone back in time . It's as if we've gone back in time; if you miss the match directly, you've missed the opportunity. It's crazy to me that they're spending hundreds of millions , even billions, on this live streaming and you don't even get the benefits of digital streaming.

Yes, and going back to your point about what will happen with sports leagues, and to reiterate what I said earlier, Netflix is brilliant at experimenting. They are ready to try things.

I truly believe there is value in live sports to keep people on the platform. But most people are already on the platform. Therefore, additional returns are limited at the moment.

I mean the advertisements and perhaps a few who only watch sports, but what about them? They try wrestling , tennis, boxing, football, they try everything. I would be surprised if , given their needs, they decided that the most expensive sports rights in the world are the most efficient use of capital compared to others.

So, okay, I mentioned football. I think, you know, if you want to expand into markets where you haven't yet matured, then perhaps the most popular sport in the world in other markets is your path to success.

Yes, it will be interesting; I am fascinated to see how the relationship between the broadcasting world and sports will evolve.

Okay, I wanted us to switch to Netflix, guys. One of the more interesting comments from their co-CEO was that they are not growing as fast as he wants them to.

Netflix's stock has gone through two years of volatility, but they are still growing at a rate of 16%. That's a very strong number, but Lou, how should we, as investors, interpret that?

This is probably a stock that many smart investors still hold. But yes, how will Netflix grow from here? I mean, they could try, I don't know, ordering DVDs by mail, maybe?

Yes, but look, I mean, even look at what they tried to do. It seems that every time I log in, I am told that I can play games there.

Much of what they are doing now is making sure we stay connected to them, rather than trying to expand their subscriber base. This is what happens to mature companies. Learn, Netflix has grown up.

Its growth has slowed because, at least in the Western Hemisphere, most people who want it already own it.

I don't know if there is a good answer other than that, as an investor, when I hear the CEO say that, I think: Well, maybe I need to adjust my expectations accordingly.

Think about Netflix's journey since its inception. She revolutionized video rentals, Blockbuster, and then revolutionized herself through live streaming. Then it revolutionized the industry when the company decided to start funding and producing its own content, most of it, instead of relying solely on third parties.

Then, years after hearing the founder say we would never have ads, it changed its own business model and added an advertising category.

And she has tried, you know, she is experimenting, she is a pioneer in experimentation as you said earlier on the show, they have tried things like games and other small things, but I think what we forget is that the industry in general is very mature.

There are some opportunities in other countries as the internet becomes more widespread, live streaming becomes more successful, and people have additional income. But the other part of it is that the way we consume content and spend our time consuming it has changed in ways that make Netflix structurally ill-equipped to deal with it.

Think about the type of content that is shown on YouTube. This doesn't work on Netflix in the first place, that a random person sets up a camera and starts a channel.

The original rule-breaker, Netflix remains the biggest stock in his portfolio, but he made it clear that it is no longer a rule-breaker. She has become a rule-maker. She is a dominant and powerful player in her industry, and in some ways I mean that's incredible, isn't it?

In terms of generating cash, it makes them more susceptible to disruption in ways that could erode their advantages.

They just need to buy all of Disney's studio and streaming assets, create one huge streaming company, license all the theme park intellectual property rights and do that.

I mean, this isn't going to happen, but that's it, it's over. The growth story has ended. That's fine. It's still a great company, but unless it's going to get into creative destruction, I don't think there's a path to growth it wants.

I don't think there will ever be just one app. Because if you think about Apple, Amazon and other companies involved in streaming, it serves a different purpose in their business, perhaps as part of attracting customers or as a retention factor, but it is not the core business that should be the main source of profit.

My only objection here is in the world of streaming, can there be one application that controls everyone? As you know, I have young children. They can enjoy the Disney app as they please.

They cannot freely access Netflix or YouTube, and I think that's important for consumers.