Netflix因缺乏IP而处于较弱的竞争地位;鉴于额外收入潜力有限,其在直播体育赛事上不计后果地竞标并不合理。
逐段跳播
你有 Netflix、Disney,以及许多其他参与者。
You have Netflix, Disney, and a host of other players.
他们远远领先于 Disney,甚至领先于 Netflix。在我看来,他们拥有的体育内容库,Netflix 目前根本无法望其项背。
They are far ahead of Disney, and even Netflix. They have, in my opinion, a sports library that Netflix can't even come close to at the moment.
在你提到的这三家中,Netflix 似乎最有可能受到这笔交易的影响,但你提到了债务。
Of the three you mentioned, Netflix seems the most likely to be affected by this deal, but you mentioned debt.
可以说 Netflix 需要这些内容。
It could be argued that Netflix needs this content.
看看 Netflix。Netflix 为美国橄榄球联盟支付巨额资金,这合理吗?我不知道他们从长远来看是否会考虑这一点。
look at Netflix. Does it make sense for Netflix to pay huge sums of money for the American football league? I don't know if they will think about that in the long run.
我认为是的,他们需要直播体育内容,但 Netflix 是每个人都有的服务。所以,他们从中获得的额外收入并不多。我的意思是,他们可能会获得广告收入,但同样,这不足以证明不计后果地竞标是合理的。
I think so, yes, they need live sports, but Netflix is the service everyone has anyway. So, they don't get much additional revenue from it. I mean, they might get advertising revenue, but again, it's not enough to justify reckless bidding.
谁能做到这一点?是 Disney 吗?是 Netflix 吗?Netflix 负担得起。Disney 负担得起。这只是一个能否通过监管程序以及这一过程可能是什么样子的问题。
Who can do that? Is it Disney? Is it Netflix? Netflix can afford that. Disney can afford that. It's simply a matter of being able to get through the regulatory process and what that might look like.
如果最终围绕 NBC 出现某种竞购战,而 Netflix 没有参与,我会真的感到意外。我认为 Netflix 是处于较弱地位的那一个。我知道大家都在提合同终止费。这很了不起。现金流不错,但他们过去和现在都在寻求知识产权。
他们迫切需要它,我不知道这 28 亿美元或不管是多少现金,相比我认为他们现在都在追逐的内容库和廉价内容,能给他们带来多少。
I would be genuinely surprised if Netflix did not participate if there ended up being some kind of bidding war over NBC. I think Netflix is the one emerging in a weaker position.
I know everyone is referring to contract termination fees. This is amazing. Cash flow is good, but they were and still are looking for intellectual property rights. They desperately need it, and I don't know how much this $2.8 billion or whatever cash it is will give them compared to the libraries and cheap content that I think they are all after right now.
Netflix 在这个领域仍然有点像是一个“妖怪”。
Netflix is still somewhat of a "bogeyman" in this field.
我认为 Netflix 和 Peacock 会达成某种聚合协议,在不走到合并那一步的情况下合作。我认为这完全合理,比如把内容给他们,甚至关掉 Peacock 流媒体服务,直接说:“你知道吗,Netflix,我们把所有内容都卖给你。”
或者找到一种收入分成的方式,把 Peacock 的内容加到 Netflix 上,作为某种低于合并的安排,让他们合作并协调各自的努力。
I think Netflix and Peacock will reach some kind of aggregation agreement where they work together without going as far as merging. I think this makes perfect sense, like giving them, or even shutting down the Peacock streaming service and simply saying: "You know what, Netflix, we'll sell you all our content."
Or find a way to share revenue and add Peacock's content to Netflix as something less than a merger, where they work together and coordinate their efforts.
我仍然相信,而这只是我坚定持有的一个观点,在这里取得优势的关键一步是让 Disney 把它的制片厂和流媒体业务,以及所有与体验业务无关的部分,与 Netflix 合并,同时 Disney 保留股份、保留知识产权并继续开发它,但这样做是为了让 Disney 摆脱那块他们无法做成功的低利润率业务,尽管他们尝试了各种办法来改变现实,却一直在这块业务上苦苦挣扎。
I still believe, and this is just an opinion I hold very strongly, that the crucial step to gain an advantage here is for Disney to take its studio and streaming business, and everything that is not related to experiences, and merge it with Netflix while Disney retains a stake, maintains the intellectual property and continues to develop it, but in order for Disney to get out of the low-margin business that they are unable to make successful, and in which they have struggled despite all their attempts to change the reality.
把它们变成行得通的那部分,也就是实验性的那部分。让 Netflix 来管理这些知识产权,而 Disney 保留,我不知道,也许通过“反向莫里斯信托”或类似的方式,他们可以轻松保留 25% 的股份。那才是制胜的王牌。
Turn them into the part that works, which is the experimental part. Let Netflix manage that intellectual property while Disney retains, I don't know, perhaps through a "reverse Morris trust" or something similar, they can easily retain a 25% stake. That 's the winning card.
如果它与 Netflix 合并,Netflix 根本没有家长控制工具,也没有那种品质,对吧?没错。我的意思是,我不这么认为,而且 Netflix 要是说“是的,我们要关掉这个面向儿童的品牌”,那简直是疯了。
Well, if it were merged with Netflix, Netflix simply doesn't have the parental control tools, or the quality, right? correct. I mean, I don't think so, and it would be crazy for Netflix to say "Yes, we're going to shut down this kid-oriented brand ."
我认为对 Netflix 来说,关键在于知识产权、所有的制作,以及现成的内容。
I think for Netflix, it's about intellectual property, all the production , and the ready-made content.
这个频道对 $NFLX 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上共 4 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。