$NFLX

NFLX 本季度业绩表现不一:每股收益超出预期,营收符合预期,但自由现金流以及第四季度和全年指引不及预期;裁员对利润率构成压力,销售增长连续第四个季度放缓。若电话会议中提及,可能的国际涨价和广告业务扩张或能带来收入,但需求疲软。

《EARNINGS PANEL: SPCX, NFLX & UAL》
Schwab Network发布 2026-10-20 · 12 段内容
08:14/ —打开原视频

逐段跳播

12 段内容
8:1411:13

不过,我们也收到了来自Netflix的消息。我想先快速谈谈SpaceX,让大家了解情况。它们现在处于有利位置。但Netflix的情况并非如此,它们现在下跌了3.3%。

But, we also have news coming from Netflix. I would like to speak to SpaceX quickly to let you know the situation. They are now in a positive position. However, that is not the case with Netflix. They are now down 3.3 percent.

每股收益为87美分,比预期高出约5美分。营收为128.7亿,与市场一致预期完全相符。第三季度自由现金流为28.8亿,未能超过32.2亿美元的预期。

EPS is at 87 cents. This is about 5 cents better than expected. Revenue came in at 12.87 billion. This is exactly in line with the consensus forecast. Free cash flow for the third quarter came in at 2.88 billion.

It failed to surpass the estimate of $3.22 billion.

就指引而言,它们对第四季度3134.4亿的营收预测未达预期,市场预期超过135亿。这表明其销售增长预计将连续第四个季度放缓。

In terms of their guidance, their revenue forecast for the fourth quarter of 313.44 billion did not meet expectations. More than 13.5 billion was expected. Which indicates a forecast of slowing sales growth for the fourth consecutive quarter.

每股收益(EPS)预测也未达标。它们预测为67美分,而预期是73美分。

EPS ( earnings per share) forecasts were also not met. They predicted 67 cents. The estimate was 73 cents.

营业利润预计为35亿美元,未达到37.2亿美元的预期。营业利润率预计为26%,而预期超过27.5%,其中包含因裁员带来的约120个基点的影响。

Operating income is forecast at $3.5 billion, which missed the estimate of $3.72 billion. The operating margin is forecast at 26%. The estimate was more than 27.5 percent, which includes an impact of about 120 basis points due to staff layoffs.

Netflix还将财年营收预测从先前510亿至514亿美元的区间下调至511亿美元,并将财年自由现金流预测从125亿美元下调至约120亿美元。这两项预测均低于市场一致预期。

Netflix also lowered its fiscal year revenue forecast to $ 51.1 billion from a previous range of $51 to $51.4 billion, and it lowered its fiscal year free cash flow forecast to about $12 billion from $12.5 billion.

Both of these forecasts were lower than the consensus forecast.

因此,我们看到股价下跌了约3%。Kevin,你对Netflix的初步看法是什么?它们不再披露订阅用户数,所以我们现在看指标的方式略有不同。

And as a result, we are seeing the share price drop by about 3%. Kevin, what are your initial impressions of Netflix? They no longer disclose subscriber numbers, so we look at the metrics a little differently now.

我认为这都是它们的计算方式,也许它们就是想这样呈现,这也是我们看到股价从低位有所回升的原因。利润率预测自然低于市场预期,原因是员工人数,但这件事也有积极的一面,而且可能是它们已经酝酿了一段时间的,那就是它们将提高广告投放力度,并扩展到一些它们已有业务的国家。

I think that's all their calculations and maybe that's how they're trying to portray it, and that's why we're seeing some uptick in share prices from this low. The margin forecast is naturally lower than market expectations.

The reason for this is staff numbers, but there is also a positive side to this, and something that they have probably been sitting on for a little while , is that they are going to increase their advertising levels and expand them into some countries where they already have some presence.

所以,它们随时可以提价。目前,就用户规模而言,国际市场相当大,但它们尚未采取措施对这一客户群体提价。通常,价格影响来自美国和加拿大。所以,如果你开始在财报电话会上听到这类讨论,那将是它们相对较快地从业务中创造收入的直接途径。

So, they can raise prices at any time. Right now , the international market is quite large in terms of their user base, but they have not yet taken steps to increase prices for that customer group.

Typically, the price impact comes from the United States and Canada. So, if you start hearing this kind of conversation on conference calls , it will be an immediate way through which they can generate revenue from their business relatively quickly.

我们过去已经看到过这种情况。它们只需在国际业务上这么做,而我们看到,当它们对这些客户实施这类提价时,在美国或北美部分的客户留存率仍然相对较高。即使在这里提价后,它们仍留住了约92%的客户。

And we have seen this in the past. They just have to do it in terms of international business , and we've seen that when they implement these kinds of price increases on those customers , the customer retention rate is still relatively high in the United States or North American part.

Even after raising rates here, they have retained about 92% of their customers.

它们需要更多地使用这一策略。不幸的是,需求并不大,所以它们选择了控制成本的路线。它们将在国际业务上多做一些尝试,看看市场在财报电话会后是否真的认可这家公司的价值,因为这次电话会无疑会是件大事。

They need to use this strategy a little more. Unfortunately, there is not much demand , so they are choosing the cost route. They're going to stretch some tires in terms of international business , and let's see if the market really values this company after the conference call, because the conference call is undoubtedly going to be a big deal.

但是,当它们开始谈论对客户提价时,这对它们来说将是一件整体积极的事。目前,由于财报喜忧参半,Netflix股价已下跌3.5%。它们的营收符合预期,每股收益也超出了预期。

But, when they start talking about increasing rates for their customers, it will be an overall positive thing for them. And right now, Netflix's share price has fallen by 3.5% due to a mixed report.

Their revenue was expected. They have also exceeded expectations in terms of their EPS.

观察点

管理层是否在财报电话会议上讨论国际市场价格上涨
讨论了涨价
即将到来的财报电话会议财报电话会议
支撑营收端的积极因素

这个频道对 $NFLX 的历次判断

Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 11 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

跨洋听风