$NVDA · Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. · 2026-11-06
NVDA 市盈率仅 14 倍，看似便宜，但现在买入半导体是一场赌博，因为周期从不持久：一旦需求下滑，利润率、营收和销售额都会下降。即便两年后赚到 1000 亿，10 倍市盈率对应 1 万亿，20 倍对应 2 万亿——较当前仍下跌 50%。押注 NVDA 股票并非目标。
逐段跳播
Nvidia 目前的市盈率只有14倍，纳斯达克100指数也只有20倍。这比过去五年任何时候都更便宜。
Nvidia is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of only 14, and the Nasdaq 100 at only 20. This is cheaper than ever in the past five years.
回到 Nvidia，是的，它确实下跌了，但如果你看长期图表，情况就大不相同了。华尔街总是预期这种趋势会无限延续下去，直到它发生转变。增长、增长、营收增长、利润增长，所有分析师都极度乐观。
但是，我们必须理解半导体周期。当你去看那些出问题的时期，情况会变得非常糟糕，因为价格在下跌，积压的订单被取消，销售额在下滑，然后局面看起来就很糟。当然，在繁荣时期，一切看起来都很棒，但历史上从来没有哪个周期能永远持续下去。
Returning to Nvidia, yes, it has declined, but if you look at the long-term chart, the story is quite different. Wall Street always expects this trend to continue indefinitely until it changes.
Growth, growth, revenue growth, profit growth, and all the analysts are extremely optimistic. However, we must understand the semiconductor cycle. When you look at the times when things go wrong, they get really ugly because prices are falling, backlogs of orders are being canceled, sales are declining, and then the situation looks terrible.
Of course, in periods of prosperity, everything seems amazing, but never in history has the cycle lasted forever.
所以这只是一场赌博。所以，现在所有买入半导体的人都是在赌博。你可能会赚到不错的利润。过去几年里所有参与赌博、每次下跌都买入的人都做得非常好，因为 Nvidia 一直在上涨。
So it's just a gamble. So, everyone who buys semiconductors now is gambling. You may make good profits. All those who gambled over the past few years and bought on every dip did very well because Nvidia continued to rise.
Nvidia 的营收和净利润走势是同步的，但我们还需要看利润率。从尚可的平均利润率，我们现在处于一个利润率极高得离谱的过度时期。如果 AI 的故事停下来，需求下降，利润率就会下降，营收就会下降，所有推动公司上涨的因素最终都会走向下滑。
Nvidia has tracked revenue and net income, but we also need to look at margins. From acceptable average margins, we are now in an excessive period of insanely high margins. If the AI story comes to a halt, and demand falls, margins will fall, revenues will fall, and everything that has propelled the company upward will eventually come to a decline.
是的，Nvidia 可能仍然会盈利，但我们假设两年后它能赚到1000亿，相比2020年的43亿或2022年的90亿，这已经很了不起了。变化真快。如果它们实现了1000亿，按10倍市盈率计算，也就是半导体可能出现的估值，市值将是一万亿。
按20倍计算，就是两万亿。这仍比现在的水平下跌50%。
Yes, Nvidia may still be profitable, but let's assume that two years from now it will make 100 billion, which is great compared to the 4.3 billion it made in 2020 or 9 billion in 2022.
How quickly things change. If they achieve 100 billion, the market capitalization at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10, which is what could happen to semiconductors, would be one trillion.
At a ratio of 20, it becomes 2 trillion. This is still a 50% decrease from where we are now.
目标是做得好，而不是押注 Nvidia 股票。
the goal is to be good, not to bet on Nvidia stock.
这个频道对 $NVDA 的历次判断
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。