$ORCL · Drawbridge Finance · 2026-11-09
ORCL正缓慢下行，位于约143的成交密集区下方，200日移动均线构成阻力；只有在当前水平反弹或获得支撑，才可能形成双底。不过，市盈率14、盈利能力A+、空头持仓1.57%，以及合理价值154（高出24%），让说话者希望对ORCL持一些潜在的看多态度。
逐段跳播
我通常喜欢从图表开始看。200 日移动平均线处于下行趋势。筹码密集区大约在 143。股票目前的交易价格是 124。最近刚派发了股息。我们即将迎来财报。上一次财报是超预期，但之后我们看到股价下跌。
有意思的是，它是在下行方向触及的。所以在这种情况下，200 日移动平均线实际上起到了阻力的作用，而不是支撑。所以 Oracle 在最近一段时间里一直在缓慢地走下行趋势。
I usually like to start with the chart. We're the 200 day moving average is on a downtrend. Point of control is around 143. Stocks trading at 124. Uh paid a dividend recently. We have earnings upcoming.
Last earnings was a beat and we saw the stock drop down after that. Interesting that it touched on the downside. So 200 day moving average is actually uh working as resistance, not support in this case.
And so Oracle [snorts] has been slowly kind of downtrending for the last little while.
我通常不交易 Oracle。这可能是因为它一直位于 200 日移动平均线上方。当我看这些股票时，因为我是做区间交易的，我不喜欢那种上下乱窜的股票。我觉得这类标的会变得更具方向性。
我更喜欢的是像 Nvidia 这样、实际上在一段时间内处于横盘区间的股票。也许 Oracle 这里实际上正在发生这种情况。我们可以看到，从今年 2 月、甚至早在 1 月以来的这段时间里，除了 4 月股价上涨的那一段之外，它实际上大部分时间都在横盘交易。
这就是为什么我们在这里看到这么大的筹码密集区。而我们目前位于其下方。所以，这会是第一步。我会看这张图，然后说：“好，这就是我们目前所处的位置。”我可能会在这里画一些价位线。我们正在下探到一个潜在的双底，前提是我们在下方这个位置看到反弹或获得支撑。
Now, I don't trade Oracle typically. And that might be because um it's been above its 200 day moving average. Now, when I look at these stocks, like because I'm a range trader, I don't love stocks that are going like up and down.
I feel like these types of plays become more directional in nature. And what I would prefer is stocks like Nvidia and things that are actually in a in a sideways range for a while.
And maybe that's actually happening here with Oracle. We can see that there's been a a time frame uh back from February of this year, even back as far as January, where this aside from this time frame in April where the stock ran up, it actually has been trading mostly sideways.
And that's why we see that large point of control here. Uh and we're currently below that. So, this would be step one. I would look at this chart and I would say, "Okay, here that's where we are."
I might draw some levels on here. Um, we're getting down to a potential double bottom if we if we see a bounce or support off of this level down here.
所以，我可以标出一条，让我在这里画一条水平线。这样，白色的线就画出来了。那就是筹码密集区。然后是下行的 200 日移动平均线。所以，我接下来会做的是做一些分析。我，我偷个懒。所以我要给你们看看我的偷懒办法。
我到这里来，去 Seeking Alpha。我偷懒的办法就是付费。其实也不算偷懒，你自己也能算。但这是我做的事情之一。所以这里的估值计算值。这是怎么回事？我按错键了。估值，这里说得更清楚一点。
好。我在干什么？估值 B。好了。另外看看今年下跌 51%。这个位置相当低。市盈率。我们之前谈过这个。14。当我们只付 14 倍市盈率时，这只股票是在打折。那么，低市盈率就一定意味着是很好的买入机会吗？
不一定。我们必须看的一件事是它是否盈利。嗯，这只股票的盈利能力是 A+。我们的空头持仓也只有 1.57%。所以对我来说，仅从 Seeking Alpha 上看基本面，我们有一个低估值。
我们有一个低市盈率，意味着我们付的钱不多。我们的空头持仓非常少。而且我们有很高的盈利能力。对我来说，这感觉像是一只我愿意对其抱有一些看涨预期的股票。现在，我们来做交叉验证。我们用另一个服务。
我们用 investing.com，来看公允价值。公允价值是 154，比现价高 24%。所以对我来说，当我看到这类东西时，我看到两个不同的付费服务之间存在相关性。
So, I can mark in a Let me just mark a horizontal line there. So, the white one gets drawn in. That's point of control. And then 200 day moving average coming down. So, what I would look for is next I would do some analysis.
And I and I cheat. So I'm going to show you my cheats. I'm going to go over here. I'm going to go to seeking Alpha. I I cheat by paying for it. It's not really a cheat. You can you can do the math yourself.
But this is one of the things that uh that I do. So valuation calculated value here. Um what is going on? I'm in the wrong key. Val be a little more clear here. Okay. What what am I doing?
Valuation B. There we go. Uh, also looking at this minus 51% this year. This is this is way down there. Price to earnings ratio. We talked about this earlier. 14. The stock is on sale when we see a price to earnings when we're paying $14.
Now, is it always that a low price to earnings ratio means that it's a great buy? Not necessarily. One of the things we have to look at is whether or not it's profitable. Well, this has got an A+ profitability.
We also have a short interest of only 1.57%. So to me, looking basic just on Seeking Alpha alone, we have a low valuation. We have a low price to earnings ratio, which means we're not paying very much.
We have very little short interest. Uh and we have high high probab profitability. This to me feels like a stock that I would want to have some potential bullishness on. Now, let's do a cross check.
We're going to use a different service. We're going to use investing.com and we're going to look at for fair market value. Now, fair market value is 154, which is 24% above. So, to me, when I look at this type of thing, I see a a a correlation between two different paid services.