百事看起来被低估——每股价值178美元对124美元的市场价格，远期市盈率约为可口可乐的一半，市场情绪极度悲观。尽管百事面临结构性逆风、预期营收增长慢于可口可乐，他目前仍会选择百事而非可口可乐，并称两者都是买入机会。
逐段跳播
把Coca-Cola和Pepsi-Cola放在一起比较是件很有意思的事。它们向相同的客户群体、在世界相似的地区提供类似的产品。
Comparing Coca-Cola and Pepsi-Cola is an interesting matter. They offer similar products to the same customer groups and in similar regions of the world.
不过，Coca-Cola的股价正接近其52周最高水平，而Pepsi-Cola的股价则正接近其52周最低水平。我觉得这种情况非常有意思，所以我想做一次直接对比，和大家分享这两家公司之间的差异、它们估值出现巨大差距的原因，以及在当前市场价格下我认为哪一家更值得买入。
However, Coca-Cola shares are trading near their highest level in 52 weeks, while Pepsi-Cola shares are trading near their lowest level in 52 weeks. I found this situation really interesting, so I wanted to make a direct comparison and share with you the differences between these two companies, the reason for the large discrepancy in their valuations, and which one I see as a better buy today at current market prices.
自经济重启以来，两家公司都实现了强劲的收入增长，但Coca-Cola的增长更为显著。这对Pepsi-Cola来说并不算好，因为它在疫情期间的居家阶段受益于其蓬勃发展的零食业务，当时人们待在家里的时间更多。
Both have achieved strong revenue growth since economic reopening, but Coca-Cola's growth has been more pronounced. It wasn't great for Pepsi-Cola, as it benefited during the stay-at-home phases of the pandemic thanks to its booming snack sector, as people were spending more time at home.
他们频繁吃零食，也更经常喝Pepsi Cola饮料。总体而言，由于零食业务强劲，Pepsi-Cola的收入规模大于Coca-Cola，但收入增长方面Coca-Cola表现更好，
They ate snacks frequently and consumed Pepsi Cola drinks more often. Overall, Pepsi-Cola's revenue is larger than Coca-Cola's due to its strong snack business, but revenue growth has been better for Coca-Cola,
而且我预计，未来三年Coca-Cola的收入增长将继续好于Pepsi-Cola。你会注意到它们之间最大的差异之一在于盈利能力，而这正是Pepsi-Cola股票投资者最大的不满所在，他们敦促管理层采用与Coca-Cola类似的模式，因为Coca-Cola的盈利能力明显更好。
and I expect Coca-Cola's revenue growth to continue to be better than Pepsi-Cola's over the next three years. One of the biggest differences you will notice between them is in profitability, and this has been the biggest complaint of Pepsi-Cola stock investors who urge the management team to work with a model similar to Coca-Cola's, because Coca-Cola achieves significantly better profitability.
Coca-Cola的利润率接近32%，正逼近历史最高水平，且是Pepsi-Cola的两倍多。
With profit margins approaching 32%, Coca-Cola's margins are nearing record levels and are more than double those of Pepsi-Cola.
过去十年间，Coca-Cola的利润率从20%提升至32%，而Pepsi-Cola的利润率则从17%下降至15.5%。
Coca-Cola's profit margin has improved from 20% to 32%, while Pepsi-Cola's margins have declined from 17% to 15.5 % over the past decade.
这使Coca-Cola取得了出色的利润率表现，而且这并不局限于Coca-Cola跑赢Pepsi的那三个月或六个月。
This has resulted in outstanding profit margin performance for Coca-Cola, and it's not limited to the three or six months in which Coca-Cola outperformed Pepsi.
而是在过去整整十年间，你可以在图表中清楚地看到这一差距。在整个十年里，Coca-Cola在经营盈利能力上都跑赢了Pepsi-Cola。
Rather, it is over the past decade, and you can clearly see that difference in the graph. Over the course of the entire decade, Coca-Cola outperformed Pepsi-Cola in operating profitability.
以投入资本回报率来衡量时——这一指标考虑了公司投入的资本金额以及该投资的回报——它能提供更准确的业绩比较。不过近年来Coca-Cola以17.9%领先于Pepsi-Cola的14.5%。
When measured based on returns on invested capital, which takes into account the amount of capital a company invests and the return on that investment, it provides a more accurate performance comparison .
However, in recent years Coca-Cola has been ahead by 17.9% compared to 14.5% for Pepsi-Cola.
此外，自2020年以来，Coca-Cola的表现一直在改善，而Pepsi-Cola的表现则持续波动并下滑。
In addition , since 2020, Coca-Cola's performance has been improving while Pepsi-Cola's performance has been fluctuating and declining.
与此同时，你会发现，在考虑采购食品杂货时，或者在考虑在家吃什么时，咸味零食和含糖的Pepsi-Cola饮料处于劣势，因为你更有可能选择更健康的那一个，这代表了消费者的偏好。
At the same time, you find that salty snacks and sugary Pepsi-Cola drinks are at a disadvantage when thinking about grocery shopping or when thinking about what you consume while at home, as you are more likely to choose that healthier option, which represents consumer preference.
她表示，Coca-Cola和Pepsi-Cola之间有两个主要差异。其一是营业利润率。其二是以未来盈利价格衡量的估值。
She stated that there are two major differences between Coca-Cola and Pepsi-Cola. One of them is the operating profit margin . The other is valuation when measured based on the future price of earnings.
你可以看到这一差距在今年进一步扩大，因为Coca-Cola的估值已改善至24倍的远期市盈率，而Pepsi-Cola的交易估值则越来越便宜。
You can see that gap widening this year as Coca-Cola's valuation has improved to a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 24, while Pepsi-Cola is trading at a valuation that is cheaper and cheaper.
事实上，按盈利的期货口径衡量，Coca-Cola 目前的估值正处于其历史最低水平附近。它肯定接近2023年底以来的最低估值水平。它的远期市盈率仅为13.9，大约是 Coca-Cola 估值的一半。
In fact, Coca-Cola is trading near its cheapest valuation ever when measured on a futures basis for earnings. It is certainly close to its cheapest level since late 2023. It is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of just 13.9, which is roughly half the valuation of Coca-Cola.
我对 Pepsi-Cola 做了类似的计算，发现这家公司的价值是每股178美元，而当前市价仅为每股124美元。
I did a similar calculation for Pepsi-Cola and found that the value of this company is $178 per share, while the current market price is only $124 per share.
所以，无论我用什么方法衡量 Pepsi-Cola，考虑到它在近期和长期面临的结构性逆风，它似乎都被低估了。投资者对 Pepsi Cola 的情绪极其负面。
So, no matter how I measure Pepsi-Cola, it appears to be undervalued given its structural headwinds in the near and long term. Investor sentiment is extremely negative towards Pepsi Cola.
所以，如果我必须在这两家优秀的公司之间做选择，我暂时会选择 Pepsi-Cola。不过，我把这两家都归类为买入机会。我认为这两家公司的风险回报比都很有吸引力。
So, if I had to choose between these two outstanding companies, I would choose Pepsi-Cola for the time being. However, I classify both as buying opportunities. I think the risk-to-reward ratio is attractive in both companies.
这个频道对 $PEP 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 5 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。