Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 对 $PEP 的判断变化

《Think AI is a Bubble Waiting to Burst? 3 Relatively Safe Stocks You Can Buy》

百事（PEP）在140美元被低估，对比177美元的公允价值；尽管面临宏观不利因素和注重健康的消费者带来的近期销售/利润压力，预计12-18个月内有27%的上涨空间。

百事可乐是另一只被低估的股票，它与人工智能无关。我计算出的百事可乐公平价值为 177 美元，鉴于当前市场价格为 140 美元，我计算出百事可乐在未来 12 到 18 个月内有 27% 的上涨空间。

PepsiCo is another undervalued stock that is not linked to artificial intelligence. The fair value I calculated for PepsiCo is $177, and given the current market price of $140, I calculated a 27% upside for Pepsi over the next 12 to 18 months.

对于一家销售和利润稳定的相对安全的公司来说，这是一个罕见的低估值。当然，最乐观的因素之一，也是让我对百事可乐最乐观的事情，是它自身的经验。这是一项难以管理的业务。你必须与分销商合作，必须与供应商合作，必须处理制造，必须非常擅长营销，并且必须在全球范围内大规模地将所有这些整合在一起。

这是一件困难的事情。百事可乐几十年来一直成功管理这一点，并几十年来通过持续改进展示了这方面的技能。这种独有的知识和经验是我对百事可乐股票乐观的主要原因之一，也是为什么很少能以低价找到这只股票的原因之一。

This is a rare low valuation for a relatively safe company with stable sales and profits. Of course, one of the most optimistic factors, and the thing that makes me most optimistic about PepsiCo, is its own experience.

This is a business that is difficult to manage. You have to work with distributors, you have to work with suppliers, you have to deal with manufacturing, you have to be very good at marketing, and you have to bring all of that together on a large scale around the world.

This is a difficult thing to do. PepsiCo has been successful in managing this for decades and has demonstrated skill in this regard for decades with continuous improvements. That exclusive knowledge and experience is one of the main reasons for my optimism about PepsiCo stock and one of the reasons why it is rare to find this stock at a low price.

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