QCOM 目前被低估，远期市盈率仅 14 倍，凭借数据中心扩张机遇，未来 12-18 个月内有望上涨逾 40%，达到 253 美元以上的合理价值。
逐段跳播
Qualcomm 是我最近为我的投资组合买入的股票之一，我想做一期视频来谈谈我为什么做出这笔投资。当然，这只股票我全年都评为买入机会，我当时非常看好它。
Qualcomm is one of the stocks I recently bought for my portfolio, and I wanted to make a video to discuss why I made this investment. Of course, this is a stock I rated as a buying opportunity all year, and I was very optimistic about it.
它一度出现在我的最佳买入股票名单上，但股价上涨得太多太快，所以我说这是获利了结的好时机，尽管我仍然把它视为买入机会，但也许程度还不足以让它进入最佳名单。
At one point, it was on my list of best stocks to buy, but the stock price rose so much and so quickly that I said it was a good time to take profits, although I still see it as a buying opportunity , but perhaps not to the extent that it would put it on the list of best.
所以，你可以看到 Qualcomm 股价这种剧烈波动的走势。今年开局很差。股价跌到了每股125美元。这大致就是我将它列入我的最佳买入机会名单的时候，随后股价涨到了250美元。
So, you can observe this volatile price movement of Qualcomm stock. The year started poorly. The price dropped to $125 per share. This was roughly the time when I put it on my list of top buy opportunities, and the stock subsequently rose to $250.
股价在那段短时间内几乎翻倍，也就是那时我把它从最佳买入股票名单中移除。此后，股价又跌到了150美元。这无疑是剧烈波动的一年。
The price almost doubled in that short period, and that's when I removed it from my list of best stocks to buy. Since then, the stock price has fallen to $150. It has undoubtedly been a volatile year.
更准确地说，你可以看到我的计算，在我将 Qualcomm 列为2026年最佳买入股票之一的这段期间，其股价上涨了97%。
To be more precise , you can see my calculations where Qualcomm's stock rose by 97% during the period in which I ranked it as one of the best stocks to buy in 2026.
Qualcomm 的业务在疫情期间蓬勃发展。智能手机行业是其销售和利润的主要类别。智能手机行业的发展对 Qualcomm 有利。人们越来越倾向于购买更昂贵的智能手机，这些手机当然包含更多组件，这对 Qualcomm 来说是好消息。这一趋势一直在延续。
Qualcomm's business has flourished during the pandemic. The smartphone industry is its primary category for sales and profits. Developments in the smartphone industry have been positive for Qualcomm.
People are increasingly inclined to buy more expensive smartphones, which of course contain more components, and that's good news for Qualcomm. This trend has continued.
然而，近期出现了一些对智能手机行业来说属于坏消息的动态。内存价格在上涨，存储单元价格也在上涨。数据中心对内存和存储的需求非常高。价格跳涨了三位数的百分点。因此，智能手机制造商也被迫提高这些设备的价格。这给智能手机销售带来了挑战。这是短期问题。
However, there have been recent developments that represent bad news for the smartphone industry. Memory prices are rising , and storage unit prices are rising . There has been a very high demand for memory and storage in data centers.
Prices jumped by triple percentage points. Consequently, smartphone manufacturers were also forced to raise the prices of those units. This has led to challenges in smartphone sales. This is a short-term matter.
从长期来看，人们倾向于购买更强大的智能手机。集成更多技术的智能手机，以及性能更高的手机。人们已经表现出愿意为这些高端智能手机付费。从长期来看，这对 Qualcomm 是好消息。
In the long run, people tend to buy more powerful smartphones. Smartphones with more integrated technologies, and phones with higher capabilities. People have shown a willingness to pay for those premium smartphones.
In the long run, this is good news for Qualcomm.
Qualcomm 还扩展到其核心业务之外，涉足汽车和个人电脑领域。他们这样做取得了相对的成功，自进入这些类别以来，市场份额增长得非常快。
Qualcomm has also expanded beyond its core business to include the automotive and personal computer sectors. They have done so with relative success, gaining market share very quickly since entering those categories.
在我看来，汽车领域可能是下一个催化剂。自动驾驶汽车技术需要车辆中配备多得多的组件。这同样对 Qualcomm 是利好，因为这意味着对组件的更大需求。Qualcomm 会就那些进入汽车领域的组件收取授权费和专利使用费。
The automotive sector, in my view , could be the next catalyst. Self-driving car technology requires far more components in vehicles. Again, this is a positive thing for Qualcomm, because it means greater demand for components.
Qualcomm receives licensing fees and royalties for those components that go into those automotive sectors.
自动驾驶汽车所需的组件远多于如今道路上的汽车。这将是一个重要的驱动因素。我不知道这会在两年后、四年后还是六年后发生。但这个领域肯定在扩张。如今在美国，我们已经开始看到成百上千辆自动驾驶汽车上路。
在中国和东南亚更是如此，这些地区的政府官僚作风较少，允许这项技术更快推进。我认为在美国会需要更长时间，但我相信自动驾驶汽车技术会普及。即使它们不是完全自动驾驶汽车，而是为驾驶员提供更多辅助的车辆，比如车道保持辅助、高级巡航控制、紧急制动和泊车辅助，所有这些都需要更多技术。Qualcomm 将从中受益。
Self- driving cars require far more components than the cars on the roads today. That will be an important driver. I don't know if that will happen in two years, four years , or six years from now .
But this sector is definitely expanding. We are beginning to see hundreds and thousands of self- driving vehicles on the roads today in the United States . But even more so in China and Southeast Asia, where governments in those regions are less bureaucratic and allow this technology to move forward more quickly .
I think it will take a little longer in the United States, but I believe self- driving car technology will become widespread. Even if they are not fully autonomous vehicles, but rather vehicles that provide increased support for drivers such as lane keeping assist, advanced cruise control, emergency braking, and parking assistance, all of which require more technology. Qualcomm will benefit from this.
但最让我兴奋的是 Qualcomm 在数据中心领域的关系和新的客户协议。他们与 Meta Platforms 签署了协议。Amazon 也在考虑此事，并寻求签署协议。
But what excites me most is Qualcomm's relationships and new customer agreements in the field of data centers. They signed an agreement with Meta Platforms. Amazon is also considering the matter and looking to sign an agreement.
鉴于 Qualcomm 在已经扩展进入的类别中取得的成功，我相对乐观地认为 Qualcomm 能在这个领域获得可观的市场份额，因为在这个领域拿到任何份额对 Qualcomm 来说都意义重大。
Given Qualcomm’s success in the categories it has already expanded into, I am relatively optimistic that Qualcomm can gain a substantial market share in this sector, because any share in this area would be of great importance to Qualcomm.
数据中心行业规模如此巨大，可能对 Qualcomm 产生巨大影响，该公司过去十二个月实现了440亿美元的收入。把这个数字放在背景中看，仅数据中心行业最大的五家云计算公司今年就将支出超过8500亿美元。
明年，我的估算显示支出可能超过一万亿美元。因此，如果 Qualcomm 能够在这个领域仅拿下1%的市场份额，就能为 Qualcomm 的年收入增加100亿美元。所以，这是件大事，我预计它会是件大事，而且鉴于 Qualcomm 此前扩展进入新行业的成功，这就是为什么我相信它会在这一领域取得相对的成功。
The data center industry is so huge that it could have a massive impact on Qualcomm, which generated $44 billion in revenue over the past twelve months. To put that figure in context, the five largest cloud computing companies in the data center industry alone will spend more than $850 billion this year.
Next year, my estimates indicate that spending could exceed one trillion dollars. Therefore, if Qualcomm were able to capture just 1% of the market share in that sector, it could add $10 billion to Qualcomm's annual revenue.
So, this is a big deal, and I expect it to be, and given Qualcomm’s success in previous expansions into new industries, that’s why I’m confident it will achieve relative success in this area.
利润率一直波动，但总体良好。过去十二个月的营业利润率约为23.5%。它曾达到34%，如果他们确实见证了来自 AI 数据中心市场的这波激增，那么他们的营业利润率超过30%我也不会感到意外。
Profit margins have been volatile, but generally good. Approximately 23.5 percent operating margin over the past twelve months. It has reached 34 %, and if they have indeed witnessed that surge from the AI data center market , I wouldn't be surprised to see their operating margins exceed 30%.
记住，他们采用的是轻资产业务模式，也就是说他们把制造外包出去。如果 Qualcomm 确实签下数十亿美元的协议，这将使其单位经济效益有利可图。这些协议很可能带来良好的利润率。
Remember that they operate on an asset-light business model, which means they outsource manufacturing. This would allow for profitable unit economics for Qualcomm if it does indeed enter into multibillion dollar agreements.
These agreements are likely to come with good profit margins.
由于智能手机行业的这些障碍，Qualcomm 的股价目前接近数年来的最低水平。该股的前瞻市盈率仅为14倍。它是采用轻资产业务模式的半导体公司中最便宜的之一。
Because of these obstacles in the smartphone industry, Qualcomm's stock is trading near its lowest levels in several years. The stock is trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of only 14.
It is one of the cheapest semiconductor companies operating on an asset-light business model.
因此，相比那些更便宜的半导体公司之一，它理应获得相对出色的评级。如果你把 Qualcomm 与 Marvell 或 Broadcom 这样的公司相比，你会发现它的估值远低于这些其他公司。
Therefore, it deserves a relatively excellent rating compared to one of the cheaper semiconductor companies. If you compare Qualcomm to companies like Marvell or Broadcom, you will find that it trades at much lower valuations compared to those other companies.
按预期市盈率衡量，这只股票看起来便宜，而在我看来，用我的现金流折现模型衡量，它同样显得便宜。我计算出的合理价值超过253美元，以当前181美元的市场价格计算，未来12到18个月还有超过40%的上涨空间。
The stock looks cheap when measured on a forward price-to-earnings basis, and to me, it also looks cheap using my discounted cash flow model. I calculated a fair value of over $253, which leaves up more than 40% over the next 12 to 18 months at the current market price of $181.
我认为，从更长期来看，比如24到48个月，上涨空间甚至更大，因为我不指望他们能很快从那些AI交易中开始产生任何有意义的收入。大概率要到2027年下半年才开始增长，并在2028年年中继续增长，但不会早于2028年下半年；然后，从2029年开始，我预计Qualcomm才会真正开始从AI这一类别中产生实实在在的收入。
因此，我认为Qualcomm在近期和中期都有显著的上行潜力。
I think the upside is even greater when looking at the longer term, such as 24 to 48 months, because I do n't expect them to start generating any meaningful revenue from those AI deals.
Not before they probably start to increase in the second half of 2027 and continue to do so in the middle of 2028, but not before the second half of 2028; And then, starting in 2029, I expect Qualcomm to really start generating tangible revenue from the AI category .
Therefore, I see significant upside potential here in the near and medium term for Qualcomm.
这些就是促使我为自己的投资组合买入Qualcomm股票的原因，如果未来6到12个月价格仍维持在目前水平附近，我很可能会加仓，以期在人工智能领域获得未来的市场份额。
These are the reasons that led me to buy Qualcomm shares for my portfolio, and if prices remain around their current levels for the next 6 to 12 months , I am likely to add to my financial position in anticipation of gaining future market share in the field of artificial intelligence.
观察点
这个频道对 $QCOM 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 6 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。