由于估值（交易价181美元，对比DCF的253美元）以及强劲的利润率和ROIC，QCOM比MRVL更值得买入，尽管其面临短期AI逆风和增长放缓；数据中心收入预计在2027年中至后期实现。
逐段跳播
Marvell 和 Qualcomm 都是采用无资产商业模式的半导体公司。Marvell 已经在从 AI 支出热潮中受益，而 Qualcomm 则有望从这一领域实现显著的收入增长。
Marvell and Qualcomm are semiconductor companies that adopt an asset-less business model . Marvell is already benefiting from the AI spending boom , while Qualcomm is poised to achieve significant revenue growth from this sector.
基于以上情况，在当前市场价格下，这两只半导体股票哪一只更值得买入？这正是我想在本视频中回答的问题，我会在包括评级在内的几个重要维度上对它们进行比较，以判断今天我认为哪一只最值得买入。
Based on the above, which of these two semiconductor stocks is a better buy option at current market prices? This is the question I want to answer in this video by comparing them across several important categories, including rating, to determine which one I see as the best buy today.
回顾过去十年，你可以看到两者都实现了显著增长。Qualcomm 是规模最大的公司，在过去十二个月创造了440亿美元的收入。这一数字相比10年前的大约250亿美元有所增长。就增长而言这不错，但还不足以在这段时期内让收入翻倍。
Looking at the past decade, you can see that both have achieved significant growth . Qualcomm is the largest company, having generated $44 billion in revenue over the past twelve months.
This figure represents an increase from about $25 billion 10 years ago. This is good in terms of growth, but it is not enough to even double revenues during that period.
然而，Qualcomm 尚未利用人工智能日益提升的效能。事实上，Qualcomm 正承受着负面副作用。智能手机目前是 Qualcomm 收入和利润的主要来源。这一领域正受到冲击，因为零部件价格上涨正在对消费者购买产生负面影响。
However, Qualcomm has yet to take advantage of the increasing effectiveness of artificial intelligence. In fact, Qualcomm suffers from negative side effects. Smartphones are currently the primary category for Qualcomm's revenue and profits.
This sector is suffering because rising component prices are negatively impacting consumer purchases.
与此同时，Qualcomm 已与 Meta Platforms 签署协议，并正在与其他公司（包括 Amazon）谈判，以开发用于数据中心的半导体技术。这些收入不太可能在2026年内的任何时候实现，但很可能在2027年中后期开始。
这可能为 Qualcomm 带来显著增长。可以合理假设他们能在这个领域取得成功，因为 Qualcomm 已成功从核心的智能手机领域扩展到汽车和个人电脑领域。
Meanwhile, Qualcomm has signed agreements with Meta Platforms and is in negotiations with other companies, including Amazon, to develop semiconductor technology for data centers.
These revenues are unlikely to be realized any time in 2026, but are likely to begin in mid- to late 2027. This could lead to significant growth for Qualcomm. It is reasonable to assume they can achieve success in this category because Qualcomm has successfully expanded from its core smartphone category into the automotive and personal computer sectors.
Qualcomm 在绝对数值上再次以23.5%领先，但就增长和扩张而言，Marvell 是最优秀的公司。这与我们在看收入时发现的情况类似。
Qualcomm again leads in absolute terms at 23.5%, but Marvell is the best company in terms of growth and expansion. This was similar to what we found when looking at revenues as well.
相比之下，Qualcomm 的营业利润率从30%下降到23.5%。投入资本回报率衡量管理团队配置资源以开发新产品和服务的效率，这些产品和服务为公司创造利润和现金流。在这一指标上，Qualcomm 再次位居榜首，达到22.9%，相比其2017年录得的12%有明显加速。
In contrast, Qualcomm's operating margins fell from 30% to 23.5%. Return on invested capital measures how efficiently the management team allocates resources to develop new products and services that generate profits and cash flow for the company.
In this metric, Qualcomm once again holds the top spot with 22.9 %, a notable acceleration from the 12% it recorded in 2017.
按预期市盈率计算，Marvell 股价为42.5，几乎比 Qualcomm 贵三倍，后者为14。正如我提到的，主要原因在于人工智能带来的收益。Marvell 已经在利用这一增长机会并证明了自己的成功，而 Qualcomm 却只是在承受 AI 热潮的负面影响。
Based on a forward price-to-earnings ratio , Marvell shares are trading at 42.5, which is almost three times more expensive than Qualcomm, which is trading at 14. As I mentioned, the main reason for this is the gains generated by artificial intelligence.
Marvell is already taking advantage of this growth opportunity and proving its success, while Qualcomm is only suffering from the downsides of the AI boom.
但到了2027年，随着 Qualcomm 开始从数据中心客户那里获得收入并在此基础上扩张，这一局面很可能会转向对 Qualcomm 有利。
But in 2027, this story is likely to turn in Qualcomm's favor as it begins to generate revenue from data center customers and expand from there.
我还计算了 Qualcomm 的现金流折现，得出该业务每股价值253美元。相比当前181美元的市场价格，Qualcomm 股票似乎被低估了。无论我是用预期市盈率还是现金流折现估值，Qualcomm 股票似乎都被低估了。
I also calculated Qualcomm's discounted cash flow, valuing the business at $253 per share . Compared to the current market price of $181, Qualcomm stock appears to be undervalued.
Regardless of whether I use a forward price-to-earnings ratio or a discounted cash flow valuation, Qualcomm stock appears to be undervalued.
对我来说，在现阶段进行这一比较并回答这个问题似乎相对容易。Qualcomm 展现出更好的利润率和更高的投入资本回报率，但同时增长较慢，并受到人工智能的负面影响。
For me, the comparison and answering this comparison seems relatively easy at this stage . Qualcomm is showing better profit margins and better returns on invested capital, while suffering from slower growth and the negative side effects of artificial intelligence.
所以，如果我今天必须决定这两家公司哪一家更值得买入，那会是 Qualcomm。的确，我持有 Qualcomm 的股票，而且我不有兴趣在任何接近这些市场价格的价位上持有 Marvell 的股票。
So, if I had to decide today which of these two companies is better to buy , it would be Qualcomm. Indeed, I own Qualcomm shares and I am not interested in owning Marvell shares at any price close to these market prices.
这个频道对 $QCOM 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 6 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。