$SMCI · Jose Najarro Stocks · 2026-11-01

We have companies like Airtest Technology, AMD, SuperMicro, iRent and Lumintum announcing their earnings . Each of these companies represents a different aspect of the artificial intelligence industry and the semiconductor supply chain.

Then we have AMD and SuperMicrosoft , which I am very excited about , and they will announce their earnings on Tuesday, November 3rd.

Okay, next we'll move on to Super Micro. Super Micro gave us initial updates on October 20th, didn't they? This has already caused some excitement for the stock .

Now, it's clear we already know what will happen in their last financial quarter. So, the big picture here will be the forecast for the entire year, because they usually provide forecasts for the whole year and forecasts for the next quarter as well .

The original forecast was around $15 billion in the middle of the range. Their latest update, and preliminary results, showed $19 billion in revenue. That's growth of approximately $4 billion .

They stated that artificial intelligence represents a tremendous growth story. What was also very exciting was that the gross profit margins saw a significant improvement, didn't they?

They were expecting around 10.6 at the midpoint. They actually recommended about 12 at the midpoint. So, slightly less than 200 basis points, an improvement of 150 to 200 basis points. That's a big deal, isn't it?

Because the market was punishing SuperMicro, as they were saying, "Look, you're in a very competitive market. You're struggling for pricing power. There's no way you're going to see an improvement in margins."

But now, you can see that, can't you? We would like more clarification on what is happening there.

Now, regarding the forecast for the whole of 2027, in the last quarter , right? At the end of the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026, they had between $65 billion and $72 billion.

We don't have a new figure yet, but with the quarterly figure updated this year, right? With expectations exceeded by $4 billion, we expect growth of at least $4 billion, right?

Or was much of that revenue simply brought forward ?

This is what the market will ask about. Are we about to change? Are these revenues you've generated just now due to huge demand? Or is it just something that was introduced and will continue to keep the revenues for the entire year of 2027 the same?

I think if it stays the same, the market will crash and he won't like that.

Good. Super Micro, in the past three months, has risen by about 18.8 %, which is really good for Super Micro investors . Since the recent profits, isn't that right? Since the latest earnings, the stock has risen by approximately 4.3% .

So, it's also a bit positive, is n't it? It's not as if the stock didn't move . In reaction to the recent earnings, the stock rose by 19%.

Imagine again if we already know that their performance was good, but imagine if they significantly raised those guidelines for the entire year . I think we're going to get another quarter of massive gains in the stock, at least on a daily basis.

Super Micro, a few points. A new finance director joined us in October. And most importantly, he's the Chief Financial Officer of Western Digital, isn't he? So, this is interesting.

He is not an unknown person. This is a company worth hundreds of billions of dollars . A financial manager with experience in the semiconductor industry.

One of the things about SuperMicro is that you didn't have a CFO, and with all this drama, if we had gotten a nobody, it would have been a bit suspicious. But to say now that you have someone who has experience in this market, someone who has the expertise, and someone who has some sort of reputation.

Even if we don't know them in the semiconductor industry, thanks to that resume , they have a certain kind of reputation. I think if they had seen something scary here, they wouldn't have accepted the job, would they?

The other thing is that the demand for artificial intelligence that we have seen is contributing to an improved margin based on the initial results . What's going on there? Obviously, the internal review, just more information there.

They continue to mention some weakness, but any updates in that market or in that sector will be crucial.

Finally, SuperMicro’s previous quarter, adjusted gross profit margin of 17.6% should not become a permanent assumption. The administration said most of the sequential improvement came from a positive mix including forward contracts, with other factors such as tariffs and inventory reserves helping.

The initial margin range for October is lower even after upward adjustment. At the Goldman Sachs conference in September, Mike described efforts to reduce working capital intensity through better terms and delivery timing.

Becoming self-financing for the company was a goal, not an achieved result.

The next call should link sales growth to accounts receivable, inventory, and operating cash flow, right? This is where we want to see that improvement. But at the moment, I don't think we should be considering sequential changes.

If you see any pessimistic talk emerging in this next quarter, it will say: "Look, margins are taking a big hit compared to what they were a quarter ago." That was expected. There were some tremendous favorable winds in the last quarter that helped those adjusted earnings.

Whether I invest in "Super Micro" or "Lite", it's the same. As long as you expect to deliver those growth stories, and we see those amazing numbers and good feedback, I'm very excited.

Now, what might change after these calls? For AMD and SuperMicrosoft, the Q4 and full-year guidance will be amazing, won't it? " AMD," tell us more about "Helios". Is it much bigger?

"Super Micro" comes out to tell us: "Look, the demand for artificial intelligence is insane." "We are raising our expectations for the entire year ."