SMH 已完全转为负面：在从2025年4月的165近乎翻两番至671之后，它在78.6%阻力位处失败，出现看跌吞没形态且周线动能下滑；跌破78.6%应会带动日线走低，11月初可能下跌，且跌至2027年1月的概率很大。反弹很可能在下移的卖出区失败；12月的反弹将是大幅下跌前做空的机会。
逐段跳播
我们会看一下 SMH 指数，把它作为所有半导体股票的代理指标。
We will take a look at the SMH index and use it as a proxy for all semiconductor stocks.
那么，我们先从看 SMH 开始。这是给那些观看视频但不熟悉我们工作的观众做的周期分析。
So, we'll start by taking a look at SMH. This is a periodic analysis for those who watch the clip and are not familiar with our work.
我们来看这里的周线图，以便更好地理解这一点。当我移到这里，你可以看到这个主要底部。这很惊人，因为这里的底部大约在165，那是在2025年4月。所以，我们看的是大约一年半的时间。
该股随后涨到671。价格几乎翻了四倍，这很可能是我52年职业生涯中在半导体板块见过的最大百分比涨幅。
Let's look at the weekly chart here, to understand this a little better. As I move here, you can see this main bottom. This is amazing because the bottom here was around 165, and that was back in April 2025.
So, we're looking at about a year and a half. The stock then rose to 671. The price has almost quadrupled, and this is probably the largest percentage gain I have seen in the semiconductor sector during my 52-year career.
这是一个现实生活中的例子，说明一种商品可以变得多么疯狂，而在这个案例中，半导体股票正是如此。记住，周期是从一个低点移动到另一个低点，而且它们之间存在差异。如果你学习过《周期分析研讨会》——我们目前正在为此提供特别优惠——你可以访问 asklim.com，在首页右上角看到这个优惠。
其中一个原则叫做“不一致原则”。简单来说，就是底部之间存在一个时间范围。有时它完全准确，就像你在这里看到的那样。你在这里看到，而另一个则晚了，正如你所见。它实际上可能在这里，因为那里留下了一个小尾巴。
因此，这些垂直线中的每一条都大致向你显示那个低点可能在哪里。它可能在那里，也可能在这里。哪一个可以被视为底部？这其实并不重要，但一旦这里的“反转探测器”——抱歉，我是说“健康栏”——向上转折，它就确认了低点，然后我们就知道我们正处于一个强劲的上涨动能期，直到趋势反转并进入调整期。
This is a real-life example of how a commodity can go absolutely crazy, and in this case, semiconductor stocks did just that. Now remember that cycles move from one low level to another, and there is variation in them.
If you have studied the Course Analysis Workshop, which we are currently offering a special deal on, you can visit asklim.com and see this offer at the top right of the homepage.
One of the principles is called the inconsistency principle. What this simply means is that there is a time range between the bottoms . And sometimes it is absolutely accurate, just as you can see here .
You see that here, and this other one was late, as you can see. It may actually have been here because that left a small tail there. Therefore, each of these vertical lines shows you approximately where that low level could have been .
It could have been there, or it could have been here. Which one can be considered the bottom? It doesn't really matter, but once the "reversal detector"—sorry , I mean the " health bar"—turns upwards here, it confirms the low level, and then we know we are in a strong period of upward momentum until the trend reverses and goes through a corrective period.
现在，这对半导体股票来说很重要。这是一个非常强劲的转折。这意味着这个峰值出现在周期的极右侧。你可以看到那个吞没形态。日本蜡烛图常常能识别周期中的高点和低点。我们在周期分析研讨会中其实也有一个关于此的视频。
所以，在这里你可以看到向下方向发生了吞没。出现了一个上涨吞没。这里的向上移动告诉我们这是一个上升趋势。由于这个强劲的上涨，它本应达到一个新的峰值，但它没有。如你所见，它停在了78.6%的阻力位。
它下跌了，然后现在已跌至78.6%这个水平。这是一个非常负面的事件。再加上“反转探测器”上动能的下降，这告诉你的是，半导体股票很有可能下跌到这个时间框架，即2027年1月。
Now, this is what's important for semiconductor stocks. This is a very strong transition . What this means is that this peak came on the far right side of the cycle. And you can see that swallowing pattern.
Japanese candlesticks often identify the high and low levels in cycles. We actually have a video about that in our cycle analysis workshop as well. So, here you can see an engulfing occurring in the downward direction.
An uptrend engulfment occurred. The upward shift here tells us that it is an upward trend. Because of this strong upward move , it suggests that it should have reached a new peak, but it did not .
As you can see, it stopped here at the resistance level at 78.6%. It dropped and then has now fallen to this level of 78.6%. This is a very negative event. Add to that the decline in momentum here on the “Reversal Detector”, and what that tells you is that semiconductor stocks have a very strong probability that they will move down to this time frame , which is January 2027.
所以，这向你展示了当前形势的变化，这意味着如果半导体股票出现上涨，很可能会失败。这就是位于这里的阻力区。我们称之为卖出区，而且它在下降，因为这个趋势在下降。那么，如果我们在某个时候出现上涨或反弹——我认为这可能会在12月发生——那么我们就会有做空半导体股票的机会。这就是我们将如何利用和看待它。
So, this shows you a change in the current situation here, which means that if there is a rise in semiconductor stocks, it is likely to fail. This is the resistance zone located right here.
We will call it the selling zone, and it is in decline because this trend is in decline. Then if we get a rise or a recovery here at some point, which I think might happen in December, then we will have an opportunity to short sell semiconductor stocks. That's how we'll use that and look at it .
记住，让我在这里把两边并排看一下。这里我向你展示，周线动能已经转向下行。我告诉你，当这种情况发生并跌破78.6%水平时，它将对日线图产生负面影响。你在日线图上可以看到的就是所发生的情况；你可以看到这个周期的底部在这里，它几乎按计划到来。
这个周期来晚了。而当存在所有这些抛售压力时，它有时会下跌。我看到了上涨，但随后它移到了左侧。换句话说，这个周期很早就见顶，然后跌至最低点。这再次是极其负面的。这表明这里的价格很可能在11月初的某个时候跌至更低的水平。
然后看这里的下一个周期，它把我们带到11月底。记住我们说过这里的这次下跌很可能在1月到来。嗯，那可能是在12月底。这意味着你在这里会得到某种反弹。接下来会发生的是，它将在12月见顶，然后再次大幅下跌。
所以在这里你看到正在变化的细条，它在这里已经转为负值。他把它变成了红色。在这里你可以看到细条指标（PO）给出负面信号，告诉你动能不佳。在这里你可以看到，在上涨持续的同时——我会为你放大这个来看——期权偏向指标在这里告诉你，让你的持仓偏向多头。
有趣的是，你在那里得到了这个岛形反转，而我在反转手电筒上的向下移动，然后这个变成了红色，接着这里的期权偏向指标转向并说，让我们把期权持仓偏向空头。用我们所有信息的一种真正惊人的方式。
如你所见，半导体股票的图景确实已经完全转为负面。
Remember, let me just look at both sides side by side here. Here I show you that the weekly momentum has turned downward. I'm telling you that when that happens and it falls below the 78.6% level, it will negatively affect the daily chart.
What you can see here on the daily chart is what happened; you can see the bottom of this cycle here, where it came almost on schedule . This course came late. And when there is all this selling pressure, it sometimes drops.
I got the rise, but then it moved to the left side. In other words, this cycle peaked very early and then fell to its lowest point . This is extremely negative again. This suggests that the price here is likely to fall to a lower level sometime in early November.
Then look here at the next cycle, which takes us to the end of November. Remember that we said this drop here is likely to come in January. Well, that might be in late December.
What that means is that you'll get some sort of bounce here. What will happen next is that it will peak and then drop sharply again in December. So here you see the thin strip that is changing, which has turned negative here.
He made this red. Here you can see the thin bar indicator (PO) giving a negative signal, telling you that the momentum is bad. Here you can see that while the rise was continuing , and I will zoom in on this for you to see , the Options Bias indicator was telling you here to keep your positions biased to the long side.
Interestingly, you got this island reversal there, and my downward shift on the reversal flashlight here, then this turned red, and then the options bias indicator here turns and says let's bias our options positions to the short side.
A truly amazing way to use all our information. As you can see, the picture has really turned completely negative for semiconductor stocks .
这个频道对 $SMH 的历次判断
Steve Miller 在这只股票上共 5 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。