$SMH · StockCharts TV · 2026-11-04
SMH 形成巨大的双顶，在长期强劲表现之后，正测试其200日移动均线，为一段时间以来首次，同时逼近超卖；这一格局看起来极为不祥。下方存在未回补缺口且支撑薄弱，最终可能被测试；若逼近超卖未能激发惯常的强劲需求，则存在风险。
逐段跳播
当然，另一个原因是科技板块已经开始下跌，而正如我们所知，它主导了标普500指数的大部分价格走势。当然，处于最前沿的是半导体交易所交易基金（SMH）。坦率地说，这是一个双顶，而且是一个巨大的顶部。
我们可以在这里看到，当时有较小的看跌形态被激活，或者边缘性的看跌跌破未能向下超越这一区域。现在SMH指数已回到同一水平，其形态极其不祥。它现在正测试其200日移动均线，这是很长一段时间以来的第一次，并再次接近超卖区域，这是我们很久没见过的。
这通常不会发生，尤其是在SMH指数中，它很长一段时间表现良好。所以，不用说，这一水平下方有一个开放区域，一个支撑薄弱的缺口，最终可能会被测试，当然，它类似于一个真空，如果它打开，可能会拖累很多东西，对吧？
这已不再令人惊讶，但我们必须牢记这些风险，尤其是如果接近超卖区域并不能激发我们在SMH指数下跌时通常看到的强劲需求。
Another reason for this, of course, is that the technology sector has begun to decline, and as we know, it dictates most of the price movement of the S&P 500 index. At the forefront of this, of course, is the Semiconductor Exchange-Traded Fund ( SMH).
And frankly, it's a double peak, and a huge peak at that. We can look here at the time when there are smaller bearish patterns that have been activated, or marginal bearish breaks that have not been able to go beyond this area downwards .
Now that the SMH index has returned to that same level, its appearance is extremely ominous. It is now testing its 200-day moving average for the first time in a while, and is again approaching oversold territory, something we haven't seen in a long time.
This does not usually happen, especially in the SMH index, which has performed well for a very long time . So, it goes without saying that there is an open area below this level, a gap with weak support that may eventually be tested, and of course, it resembles a void, and if it opens up, it may drag a lot with it, right?
This is no longer surprising, but we must keep these risks in mind, especially if approaching the oversold zone does not stimulate the strong demand we usually see when the SMH index declines.
这个频道对 $SMH 的历次判断
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