$SMH · StockCharts TV 观点轨迹

《Tech Is Breaking Down. So What’s Keeping the S&P 500 Afloat?》

AI 摘要 · SMH 形成巨大的双顶，在长期强劲表现之后，正测试其200日移动均线，为一段时间以来首次，同时逼近超卖；这一格局看起来极为不祥。下方存在未回补缺口且支撑薄弱，最终可能被测试；若逼近超卖未能激发惯常的强劲需求，则存在风险。

当然，另一个原因是科技板块已经开始下跌，而正如我们所知，它主导了标普500指数的大部分价格走势。当然，处于最前沿的是半导体交易所交易基金（SMH）。坦率地说，这是一个双顶，而且是一个巨大的顶部。

我们可以在这里看到，当时有较小的看跌形态被激活，或者边缘性的看跌跌破未能向下超越这一区域。现在SMH指数已回到同一水平，其形态极其不祥。它现在正测试其200日移动均线，这是很长一段时间以来的第一次，并再次接近超卖区域，这是我们很久没见过的。

这通常不会发生，尤其是在SMH指数中，它很长一段时间表现良好。所以，不用说，这一水平下方有一个开放区域，一个支撑薄弱的缺口，最终可能会被测试，当然，它类似于一个真空，如果它打开，可能会拖累很多东西，对吧？

这已不再令人惊讶，但我们必须牢记这些风险，尤其是如果接近超卖区域并不能激发我们在SMH指数下跌时通常看到的强劲需求。

Another reason for this, of course, is that the technology sector has begun to decline, and as we know, it dictates most of the price movement of the S&P 500 index. At the forefront of this, of course, is the Semiconductor Exchange-Traded Fund ( SMH).

And frankly, it's a double peak, and a huge peak at that. We can look here at the time when there are smaller bearish patterns that have been activated, or marginal bearish breaks that have not been able to go beyond this area downwards .

Now that the SMH index has returned to that same level, its appearance is extremely ominous. It is now testing its 200-day moving average for the first time in a while, and is again approaching oversold territory, something we haven't seen in a long time.

This does not usually happen, especially in the SMH index, which has performed well for a very long time . So, it goes without saying that there is an open area below this level, a gap with weak support that may eventually be tested, and of course, it resembles a void, and if it opens up, it may drag a lot with it, right?

This is no longer surprising, but we must keep these risks in mind, especially if approaching the oversold zone does not stimulate the strong demand we usually see when the SMH index declines.

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《How to Spot Real Breakouts Using the 200-Day Moving Average》

AI 摘要 · SMH 处于均线之间的悬空状态：低于50日均线但高于200日均线，因此长期趋势仍然尚可，而短期疲弱已使其跌破50日均线。未来一两周内，站上575将偏多，跌破515则构成看空破位，下一支撑约在480；在515至575之间他视为中性，并会在突破后关注动能的跟进情况。

SMH 是半导体 ETF。如果你这周一直在看盘，肯定已经注意到，AI 板块出现了一波相当不错的反弹。而 SMH 这个半导体 ETF，是捕捉这种短期投资者情绪的好方式。有意思的是，10月到本周这段时间，对 SMH 来说其实是相当负面的一周。

SMH 在10月初大约在640，目前大约在560，上周尾段一度跌到520。上周尾段我们测试520这个位置时，也刚好略高于200日移动均线。半导体 ETF 虽然短期一直在回调，但始终位于这条长期趋势基准线——200日移动均线——之上。

我想在这张图上指出，200日移动均线正好与 SMH 从3月低点到6月高点的50%回撤位吻合。可以看到38.2%的位置大约在550，50%的位置大约在516，这基本上就是 SMH 在7月底触底的位置。

所以当我们回到这个位置和200日移动均线时，这里有共振支撑，这很重要。我会说，在这样的图上，如果跌破520，那就跌破了；而515就真的会跌破200日线、跌破50%回撤位，下一个目标很可能——类似我们在 Meta 图上谈到的——看61.8%的位置，大约在480。那将是下一个潜在支撑区域。

Um, SMH is the semiconductor ETF. As I'm sure you've noticed if you've been watching the markets this week, we've had a pretty good bounce in the AI trade. And the SMH, the semiconductor ETF, is a great way to to sort of uh, you know, recognize that uh, that short-term investor sentiment.

What's interesting is uh, in the month of October going into this week, it's been a pretty negative week for uh, the SMH. The SMH was up around 640 at the beginning of October.

It's currently sitting around 560 after going down to as far as 520 uh at the end of last week. Now, at the end of the last week, as we tested that 520 level, we were also just slightly above the 200 day moving average.

Now, the semiconductor ETF, even though it's been pulling back in the short term, has still been above this long-term trend barometer, the 200 day moving average. And I just wanted to note on this chart, the 200 day moving average lines up really well with a 50% retracement of the March low to the June high on the SMH.

We can see that the 38.2% level right around 550. The 50% level right around 516. That's pretty much where the SMH bottomed out uh here at the end of July. So um important as we come back to that level and the 200 day moving average, we have this confluence support.

I would say on a chart like this we break below 520 that would clear and 515 really would break below the 200 day would break below the 50% level probably next objective similar to what we talked about on the uh on the chart of meta we look at the 61.8% 8% level, which is right around 480.

But that would be the next uh potential area of support.

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StockCharts TV 对 $SMH 的判断变化