SPY 估值过高，缺乏安全边际；当前价格意味着回报不佳且风险偏高。
逐段跳播
标普500指数被用作通用的投资基准。但它的内在价值是多少？
The S&P 500 index is used as a general investment benchmark. But what is its intrinsic value?
我们在寻找低风险、高回报的投资，从这个角度看，我们要处理的就是标普500指数。不过，回到接近历史高点的标普500指数，让我们深入探讨一下它的内在价值。
We are looking for low-risk, high-return investments, and from this perspective, we will be dealing with the S&P 500 index. However, returning to the S&P 500 index, which is close to its record highs, let's delve into its intrinsic value.
如果我们看标普500的盈利，会发现过去几年里它们增长了50%。那是296，我们姑且称之为指数中每个数值对应的美元或点数。
If we look at the earnings of the S&P 500, we will find that they have increased by 50% over the past few years. That's 296, let's call it dollars or points for each value in the index.
从历史上看这个比率，我们并没有处在互联网泡沫那样的极端水平，但已经处于历史偏高的一侧。
Looking at this ratio historically, we are not at the extreme levels of the dot-com bubble, but we are on the higher side of history.
这是一个例外情况，当时在全球金融危机期间盈利极低，但我们姑且说这是过去100年的平均市盈率。从盈利增长来看，历史上它穿越衰退和其他各种情况，年增长率在6%到7%之间。
This is an exceptional case when earnings were extremely low during the global financial crisis, but let's say this is the average price-to-earnings ratio over the past 100 years.
Looking at earnings growth, it has historically ranged between 6% and 7% annually through recessions and other conditions.
过去几年里它要高得多，但我们不要把它当作未来可持续的趋势。
Over the past few years, it has been much higher, but let's not consider it a sustainable trend for the future.
投资回报率，3.8%。然而股息率处于1.06的历史低位。所以，如果我们进入标普500指数，你可以点击这里，就会进入内在价值模型，它会将我们的内在价值与股价进行比较。
Return on investment, 3.8%. However, the dividend yield is at a historic low of 1.06. So, if we go to the S&P 500 index, you can click here, and you will be taken to the intrinsic value model, which will compare our intrinsic value to the stock price.
标普500指数的每股收益是296。股息支付率是30。现在我们需要估算未来的增长率。我们说过会使用10%的折现率，以及一个应当是标普500长期平均水平的市盈率。
The earnings per share of the S&P 500 index are 296. The dividend payout ratio is 30. Now we need to estimate future growth rates. We said we would use a 10% discount rate, and a price-to-earnings ratio that should be the long-term average of the S&P 500.
在这种情况下，未来增长率为7%，股息支付率为14%，这是直接进入你账户的钱，内在价值是4341，与当前股价相差甚远。
In this case, with future growth of 7%, and a dividend payout ratio of 14%, which is money coming directly into your account, the intrinsic value is 4,341, which is a long way off the current share price.
因此，在这些假设下，3%到4%之间就是标普500指数的预期回报。让我们回到10%，因为人们期望从股票中获得10%。如果利润增长更快，得益于AI带来的9%生产率提升，而市盈率保持在现在的水平，那么10年后市盈率将是25。就是这样。这就是标普500指数现在的定价。
Therefore, between 3% and 4% is the expected return for the S&P 500 index under these assumptions. Let's go back to 10% because from stocks one expects 10%. If profits grow faster, thanks to AI productivity of 9%, and the price-to-earnings ratio is where it is now, after 10 years the price-to-earnings ratio will be 25.
That's it. This is what the S&P 500 index is priced at right now.
高增长率，没有衰退，没有别的。市盈率处于区间的上端。然后我们有安全边际的计算。假设由于衰退，或者谁知道呢，由于AI泡沫破裂，增长率只有5%。我们回到15这个历史平均值作为最终的乘数，而在危机时期它还可能进一步下降。
按照价值投资情景，当前价值是3300点，比当前股价下跌60%。
High growth rate, no recession, and nothing else. The price-to-earnings ratio at the upper end of the spectrum. And then we have the safety margin calculation. Let's say the growth rate due to the recession or, who knows, the bursting of the AI bubble, is only 5%.
We return to the historical average of 15 as the final multiplier, which can decrease further in times of crisis. The current value, according to the value investment scenario, is 3300 points, which is a 60% decrease from the current share price.
等到了那个时候，我会说：“各位，买入标普500指数。”在那之前，这些估值告诉我们的是内在价值。我们正处在过度乐观的时期，因此现在买入很贵。
When we get here, I will say: "People, buy the S&P 500 index." Until then, the evaluations tell us the intrinsic value. We live in times of excessive optimism, and therefore they are expensive to buy now.
这里是标普500指数。在7000点，预期回报约为4%，我稍微改了一下这个框。回到标普500指数，它没有任何安全边际。其中40%如今是人工智能，而人工智能显然处于泡沫之中。也许并非如此，但“也许”这个词不该成为你退休财务所依赖的基础。
Here is the S&P 500 index. At 7000 points, the expected return is about 4%, and I've slightly changed the box. Returning to the S&P 500 index, there is no safety margin. 40% of it is now artificial intelligence, which is clearly in a bubble.
Maybe not, but the word "maybe" is not something you should base your financial retirement on.
从CAPE（周期调整市盈率）复读者的角度看，我们正处于第99百分位，是历史上最昂贵的市场，这意味着未来可能回报不佳。
From a CAPE (Cape) repeater's perspective, we are at the 99th percentile, the most expensive market in history, which implies the potential for poor returns in the future.
它只是一直表现良好、负面，以及一切把它往上推的东西。这是不可持续的，而一切不可持续的东西都必然停止。因此，我认为标普500指数是有风险的。
It's just something that worked well, negative, and everything that pushes it upwards. It is unsustainable, and everything that is unsustainable must stop. Therefore, I consider the S&P 500 index to be risky.
这个频道对 $SPY 的历次判断
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。