SPY 短期看涨，支撑位不断上移；若突破双顶，目标可能指向约 7960，并有望上探 8000 附近。但等权重标普动能偏负，当前这波上涨很可能失败；预计在 10 月或 11 月初之后，SPY 将再度下跌，并在 12 月初出现一波急跌。
逐段跳播
你会注意到，这里SPY指数呈现出小幅上行趋势，而QQQ指数则呈现强劲上行趋势。当然，这两个指数本周都在创下历史新高。
you will notice here a slight upward trend in the SPY index, and a strong upward trend in the QQQ index. Both indices, of course, are setting new record highs this week.
所以，我们在这里看到的，短期内是一个看涨的SPY指标。
So, what we are seeing here, in the short term , is a bullish SPY indicator.
现在，我们来看看对比。这是标准普尔500指数。你可以看到，这里的动能正在放缓，但总体上一直是正面的。这表明，如果市场和标普500指数成功突破这一水平——看起来像是一个双顶——下一个目标将在7960附近。
所以，市场可能会尝试在8000点附近上攻。如你所见，支撑位正在上升。
Now, let's look at the contrast. This is the Standard & Poor's 500 index. You can see here that the momentum is slowing down, but it has been largely positive here. This suggests that if the market and the S&P 500 manage to break above this level, which looks like a double top, the next target would be around 7960.
So, the market might try to rally near the 8000 level . As you can see, support levels are rising.
现在，这里有个悖论：标准普尔500指数被少数股票严重拖累。我再次建议你回去看那个视频，就是我之前专门为“市场周”节目做的那部分，讲的是这些指标与标准普尔500指数当前状况之间的差异。
当把科技股排除后，情况如下所示，这里存在巨大差异。如你所见，这与罗素指数非常相似。等权重的标准普尔500指数正在经历负动能，并在这里反弹。然而，与我们在罗素指数中看到的一致，这轮下跌可能会持续到11月底或12月才会开始放缓。
这意味着当前这波上涨很可能会失败。我们把2013年至2015年的这个区域视为卖出区。所以，这轮反弹可能会在一定程度上延续，但总体而言，我们预计标普500指数在10月或11月初那波预期中的走势之后，会再次下跌。
这段时期一直延续到12月初，可能会经历一轮剧烈抛售。大选之后，关注市场走势将会很有意思。如你所见，罗素指数和RSP指数的形态几乎完全相同，而股市的基本面已经显著恶化。鉴于此，我们发现科技股——一个关键因素——正是支撑市场的东西。
标普500指数中排名前三或前十的股票表现极其出色。
Now, here's the paradox: The Standard & Poor's 500 index is heavily weighted down by a small number of stocks. I repeat my advice to you to go back to that video, the part I dedicated to the "Market Week" program previously, which talks about the difference between these indicators and the current situation of the Standard & Poor's 500 index.
When technology stocks are excluded, the situation appears as follows, and there is a huge difference here. This is very similar to the Russell index, as you can see. The equally weighted Standard & Poor's 500 index is experiencing negative momentum and is bouncing back here.
However, in line with what we see in the Russell index, this decline may continue until late November or December before it begins to slow down. This means that this current surge is likely to fail.
We have this area as a selling zone from 2013 to 2015. So, this rebound may continue to some extent, but overall, we expect the S &P 500, after that anticipated move in October or early November, to fall again.
This period, extending until the beginning of December, may witness a sharp sell-off . After the elections, it will be interesting to follow market developments. As you can see, the Russell and RSP indices are almost identical in their pattern, with the fundamentals of the stock market having deteriorated significantly.
Given this, we find that technology stocks, a crucial element, are what is supporting the market. The performance of the top three or ten stocks in the S&P 500 index is extremely exceptional.
这个频道对 $SPY 的历次判断
Steve Miller 在这只股票上共 10 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。