$SPY · T3 Live · 2026-11-03
SPY 目前不是买入时机：在红狗反转卖出后它下跌 79 美分，大选结果出炉前可能无法收复 750，而跌破 749 后直到 200 日均线都缺乏支撑。它距高点仅回落 4%，未达到他所等待的 5-7% 回调；200 日均线大致是他愿意投入资金的位置。
逐段跳播
看看 SPY 的图表。这里会发生什么？我们有过 74960，涨到高点，回测它，然后在周五从那个低点反弹了一点。然后昨天发生了什么？红狗反转卖出。我不知道跟你说过多少次了，站上去并守住上方，你就能持有。
站上去但失败，没能守住上方，就做空或者离场。昨天我们整个下午都在卖出。那现在呢？SPY 跌了 79 美分。
So look at the chart of the spies. What's going to happen here? you know, we had 74960, went up to the highs, retested it, gave a little bit of a bounce off that low on um, you know, on Friday.
And then yesterday, what happened? A red dog reversal sell. I don't know how many times I've told you, get above and stay above. You could be in it. Get above and fail. Fail to stay above.
Get short or get out. And [snorts] yesterday we sold all afternoon. So now what? Spies are down 79 cents.
我不知道它能不能在大选结果出来之前突破 750。这个我们控制不了。你能控制的是自己承担多少风险。你能控制自己主动在做什么。长期当然不一样。所以目前，我们在 75128。这里是 750。
这里是 75036。这里是 749。如果这里被跌破，那么在 200 日线之前，这里没有太多支撑。所以，小心点，我的朋友们。
And um I don't know if it's going to be able to break the 750 prior to the election results. We can't control that. You can control how much risk you have on. You can control, you know, what you're doing actively.
Then obviously long term's different. So for now, we're at 75128. This is uh 750. This is 75036. This is 749. If this were to break, there's not a lot of not a lot going on here until the 200 day. So, just be careful, my doggies.
SPY 比高点低了 4%。很多人会问，红狗，你什么时候把“血溅街头”账户里的钱投进去？现在还没投。血溅街头只有在比高点低 5%、6%、7% 时才会动用，那是第一档。然后之后每再低 4%、5%，谁知道呢，这里它动用过两次。
再往回看，这里它动用过三次，效果很棒。但目前，SPY 还不算血溅街头。有些股票是血溅街头，有些标的已经被打得稀烂，但你猜怎么着，它们全都在 821 日线下方，但 SPY 不算血溅街头。
血溅街头大概连 200 日线都还不算，那只是回调走势，但那大概就是我会投入的位置。
And the spies are 4% off the high. So many people like red dog when are you putting the blood in the street account to work. It's still not put it to work. The blood in the street only goes to work when we're five, six, 7% off highs.
That's the tier one. And then only four, five% uh lower thereafter, which who knows, you know, here it went put to work twice, you know. Then if you look back um you know here it went to work three different times and it was awesome.
But for now you know the spies are not in blood in the street. There's stocks that are blood in the street. There's names that have been you know obliterated but guess what they're all below the 821 day but the spies are not blood in the street.
You know blood in the street would probably be even the 200 day is not really blood in the street. It's just you know a correction move but that's probably where I would put it to work.
这个频道对 $SPY 的历次判断
T3 Live 在这只股票上共 11 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。