Roadster 发布会是为 Tesla 与 SpaceX 合并造势，而非近期产品：在经历九年延期后，说话者怀疑 2028 年的量产目标，预计 2029 年前不会交付。Tesla 股价稳定使合并可能性不大；Tesla 大幅上涨或下跌则会打开收购路径。

Nine fracking years, baby. Holy moly. I had one child when the Tesla Roadster was first revealed. And we still don't have the Tesla Roadster.

we're going to talk about the Roadster that's 9 years late. It finally shows up tonight in the Waco area of Texas... this car was first revealed in 2017.

Tesla earnings literally land on quote Back to the Future day. Uh Tesla earnings are on October 21st and Marty flies to October 21st, 2015 in Back to the Future. So, they literally picked Back to the Future Day to have their earnings call uh and earnings reveal.

The information reported that the answer is no. That this is like a demo of the merger between Tesla and SpaceX. There was also some rumor mill this morning that we might end up getting uh some kind of merger talk. Maybe, maybe not.

But there is a lot of talk that hey maybe Tesla and SpaceX will merge sooner rather than later. I don't know if that's true. the money raised that Broadcom, Oracle and Tesla have been trying to do has left the market in a lurch where you know companies are probably getting liquidated uh because of all this insanity that's going on.

So, uh, I think it's kind of kind of interesting that, you know, who knows, maybe we can actually get something before we, um, we cook up, uh, you know, a higher price for one of the stocks and we actually get a merger sooner rather than later to enable better fundraising. I don't know if that's true.

the car is expected to have three motors, all-wheel drive, supposedly four seats plus a removable glass roof. You know, these were some of the original leaked specs, but that was promised for delivery in 2020. Obviously, that didn't end up happening.

originally this was pitched in 20 well 2008 as the original Roadster was 0 to 60 in 3.9 seconds. We know the Model S Plaid with rolloff subtracted is at 1.9. The Cybertruck Beast is at 2.5.

We expect that this will be near instantaneous based on what Elon has said on shows like you know Joe Rogan.

there's this belief that this could be a cold gas thruster car with maybe 10 of these thrusters, ultra high-pressure air stored in some kind of uh COPV tank, and that this will only have two seats because the air tanks are replacing the back seat.

So, you can kind of get that boost. And there's a claim that they can actually with like 2 and 1/2 G's boost this or launch this uh in under a second to 0 to 60.

a lot of delays every single year. You know, we heard hopefully next month, March of this year. Uh, and last year we heard most epic demo ever by the end of 2025. And so, you know, it keeps getting delayed, but whatever.

Again, the expectation is nobody is going to be inside. The internal name for the cold gas thruster pack is the A71. The car is expected to be too loud for humans to be close to it.

And so this is why you have to be hundreds of meters back because they want to reduce the risk that the crowd ends up having hearing damage from this.

in April, a prototype shown to Musk was apparently quote not ready. And you know I've personally argued that a lot of this talk about a flying car is really just a marketing pitch for SpaceX and Tesla combining.

That is literally what I said on August 14th. You can fact check the video. I don't think you're going to be able to buy a $250,000 rocket boosted car that flies. Call me crazy, but that's the argument that I made.

I think that this is more of a prequel to look what our companies can do if these companies merge and how powerful we could be together, right? Uh and so I think this is brand branding and marketing.

We've seen an electric car fan patent. We have seen a four uh sort of ducted fan that would basically suck the car.

We're 20 years from when Elon first introduced the Roadster to the world. And it was really a a proof of concept that proved EVs were viable product. Fun to drive, could go the distance.

They were real cars. And look at how far we've come in those 20 years.

Yeah. I mean, to be honest, the Roadster is the reason I came to Tesla. And I came here and we had a master plan to build an EV that proved that we could do everything that Fran just said and then make a cheaper EV.

We that people could afford with Model S. And then we built Model 3 and Model Y.

we still have our black Model S. It's great. SpaceX together. We put Elon's into orbit. And you can see there. And you know, Starman is still out there somewhere.

But if it doesn't work, we're at a safe distance. The future is autonomous, Elon, right? But this is not an autonomous car. It is the last.

Well, it it is technically autonomous for this demo to make sure we don't kill anyone. Correct. So just in case. Uh but uh this will actually be long-term the only uh manually driven car that Tesla makes.

And so if you're going to have only one manually driven car, let's uh let's take it to the limits and way past the limits.

Elon Elon had this crazy idea. Um, I don't know where it came from. It' be great to to hear, but but we said Oh man, look at those jets. I'm a jet pilot. I like jets. Beam me up, Scotty. That's not a jet.

Oh man. Oh, it looks good. It looks good, dude. It looks Batmobile good. OH, THE LIGHT BAR. OH, holy smokes. It's good. Oh, I like it.

OH MY GOD, I WANT IT. OH, look at the jets on the back. Holy smokes. I buy I want to buy one right now. Pause the show. Damn, that looks good. Oh my god, the LEDs on the ramp, the G.

No, pitch, altitude, down force. Wait, what? What? What? What the hell, bro? It's upside down. What is this [ __ ] What the What the hell? What? Dude, what is happening?

Like, I agree. I'm like, this got to be AI. What? So, it's like suck. Is this the big suck? Are they going to do this over and over? What the Oh my god. Holy [ __ ] It worked. That was sick. Holy [ __ ] dude. Oh my god. What? Oh my god.

Well, it worked. Cars are real. Yeah. Well, uh, you know, a friend of mine, Peter Thiel, once said that the future promised us flying cars, but instead we got 140 characters. Well, not anymore.

Exactly, bro. What? That's not the last thing you'll see, by the way. To do that, we have a suction a fan suction system on the bottom of the car that can pull up to 2 G's uh in order to make the car go upside down.

And then we borrowed some technology from SpaceX to do the rest.

I mean, this car really sucks. Okay. This This car could suck the chrome off a trailer hitch. It could suck a tennis ball through a hose pipe. So, and it could stick upside down.

Now, you might say like, "How often do you want to stick upside down in a car?" Maybe not that often, but it actually has this the an actual benefit on the track or just driving where the the downforce of the car means you can corner incredibly well. like you can corner like it it looks like you're breaking physics because the car sticks to the ground so hard.

Uh so acceleration cornering it's it's going to crush every track record that has ever existed.

yeah, I think uh the last time we put Roadster uh with SpaceX, we had Starman in it. And uh maybe we should check. Did we Did we put anyone in the car phones? Yeah, I think Starman's going to make an appearance.

I think he went for a little ride. Anybody know? No. Come on. The part that doesn't work is him coming out. Oh, there he is. Hey, buddy.

He's being koi. That's cool. That's a good looking car. Uh just to be clear, that is not a real human. Yeah, I am blown away. The car has uh obviously attitude control thrusters and and main thrusters in the rear.

So, it can basically fly like a rocket. Um and uh it it could do rolls, it could do like crazy gymnastics, uh whatever you want really.

Um, now I should, you know, say that this is not, uh, necessarily a safety optimized car. Okay. Uh, but it is, uh, it it takes the the fun meter to 11 out of 10. Uh-huh. But speaking of fun meter, Yeah. You want to try one?

Let's try something else. Yeah. I mean, that was just a little flight. Let's do a longer flight. Oh my god. All right. See what we got set up.

Oh, no. All right, let's see it. There's Oh, there's the whole lineup. The semi-truck, the other vehicles. Here's the roadster. Oh, no. No. Oh my Oh no. Oh, that was sick.

So, this thing has so many boosters under it that it can not only suck to be upside down, but it can look at this. I mean, I've seen a lot of things. I've never seen that before.

Wow. Tony Hawk would be proud. We call that the kick flip.

That's over the Cyber Cab, the Cybertruck, the semi-truck, the Model Y, and the Model 3. I noticed they did not put the Model X and the Model uh S in there, which are obviously discontinued cars.

And Elon now saying this will be the only manually driven car that Tesla makes in the future.

And I don't think they mean gear shift. I think they mean with a steering wheel. This is insane. They will be such a car that a that someone can own. So it's it's going to be pretty pretty wild that you can have a rocket car.

Yeah. I love it. We had the rockets we borrowed from SpaceX technology. You talked about the carbon overlay pressure vessels. I just want to tell everyone cuz I'm a spec guy.

There's two of them in the car. They are a total of 600 lers. There's about 250 kilos of air. And uh we have 10 nozzles to do all that work. And the it's it's using an advanced uh ultra high pressure uh air tank.

So the car can recharge its air tank. So it's not like you, you know, need special propellant or anything like that. It literally is just going to puff itself up and uh and and and be able to do this these maneuvers whenever you'd like.

Wow. So, should we bring it out? We since we knew the car was going to fly, since we knew Roadster was going to fly, we looked for some inspiration about flying. And we thought we would lean into the most badass stuff out there, SR71, cars that transform. And that led us to the new Roadster.

Oh, it's beautiful. This is a really nice preview, honestly. It's just not going to be for sale for a while, but gorgeous spiky. I'm just going to mute the music a little bit. So, you got people in this one.

Roadster shirts, the fist bomb, beautiful doors, man. Oh, but they don't close themselves, man. See that? I missed that about the X, man.

So, now you get an up close look at the new Roadster. Thank you, Andy and Lamar. Those guys are kicking ass on our engineering team making this all happen.

You can see the car very clean. It's a nice clean aesthetic. Like we I said, we leaned into a little bit of some of the aerospace aesthetics. Um, it's a two-seater. I'll open it up.

Where is it? Uh, as you can see, two guys got out of it. Yeah. Yeah. We leaned into lightweight as well. So, the the seats are molded into the chassis. It's a steer by wire system.

So, we have a steer bywire yolk, steer by wire brake, steer by wire throttle.

And as we get to the to the rear of the car, this is where a lot of the action, you guys can't see it, but on online in the diffuser area is where the thrusters are, the fans are, and this is kind of the business end of of the car.

But the car can transform because we wanted to make a pretty car, but also a car that could deliver amazing downforce. What?

So, we'll turn the fans on for you. Sorry, it's a little loud here. Um, but as Elon said, this car is meant to be the best driver's car. And to do that, we wanted to break the laws of physics.

We put the fan sucker system on there to give us traction to be able to corner at greater than 2gs and accelerate um with all the traction that goes beyond the tires which is typically 1.26gs 2gs of s.

We have two modes. We have a high downforce mode and what's the car is in now is a is a low drag mode and the fan system also has two modes. It can suck the car down at low speed to give us traction when we need it.

And at high speed, we'll open up the front and rear parts of the suction system to create even more flow underneath the car.

Wow. Yeah. So, if the the the rear wig has a variable pitch, so it can adjust the downforce dynamically. Uh, and it will do it automatically based on on what it calculates you need when you're going around a track.

But Elon, how fast did you want to go to 0 to 60? I can't remember.

Well, you got to break one second. Obviously, I tested this the other day. Can we put it up, guys? Can we put the test up? Like this. This goes fast. Oh my god. Wow. It just launches.

We wanted Wow. That's kind of cool. That is a fun car. 1 second, right? You said 1 second. Well, well, I said less than 1 second. He did say less than 1 second. He said break one second.

Hey guys, we have a car out there, right? Don't we have a car out there? Can you put it on the max seat? Let's try and be 1 second.

Come on, baby. Oh, wow. Do we have a time? What was the time, guys? We didn't have a whole lot of room out on the pad, so we had to cut it short. But do we have a live time? Nobody ran the stopwatch. Oh, come on.

Well, while we're getting the live time, uh, you know, I will say this, Elon, somebody's getting fired. You can see the the thrust is exiting the back of the four thrusters, faster than speed of sound.

So, you see the mock diamonds. It It actually creates over 80 kons of thrust.

Yeah. I mean, there's there are cars and then there's one car that has mock diamonds. I think we broke the system. We didn't do it.17 seconds. Yeah. Okay. That's uh Yeah..1 seconds. I think we'd destroy the human if we did that.

Uh ah there you go. There you go. 08 seconds. There we go. Nice work. I feel like they just made it up. We'll do and and we we anticipate being able to do better than that. Uh I I mean I like the Newton's formula F= ma as a= F m.

So as you increase force and decrease mass you get more acceleration. So uh the production car will actually do better than that.

So we'll just we'll just ride the limit of don't detach the retina of the human in the car. So yeah. Well, it is the world's quickest cars production car 0 to 60. It'll do a half a mile in the time that other cars can do a quarter mile.

Um, and I think that's really what we wanted to say today. What else we got? Anything else?

No, I mean top speed. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Tough speed, of course. Yeah. Yeah. Um, somebody had to shout it out. Uh, yeah. Yeah. Depends on your street, but uh it'll be a viable car.

And uh yeah, so uh we're going to have actually a follow on uh demo uh that's uh or two or two or four uh multiples. So I thought like I don't know if this is possible or not, but um some people may know about Evil Convvil's attempt to jump the Snake River Canyon.

Oh yeah. Let's give it another shot. Oh wow. Woo. And we thought this was crazy. Yeah, man. That's going to look nuts.

We're going to have to go pretty fast to do that. Like really fast. We're going to need a running start. Yeah, you want to run a start. Yeah. Um but yeah, the car can go over 230 uh miles hour.

Hopefully uh we can get even faster. Definitely much faster than that. Yeah. How fast?

Well, I think you got to go at least uh you got to crack hway to the speed of sound, I think. Okay. Okay. That' be like Mach.5, maybe a little higher. All right. Challenge on. Challenge accepted.

Service. Yeah. Where we were going, you don't need tires.

383. So, today marks the day that uh we build the first world's best flying car. And the last best driver's car, when do you want to get it to customers?

Yeah, good question. Uh, we we we entered production uh in 2028. Actually, actually for real.

Anything left in your bag? Should we get I think we might have one more uh little thing. Should we do it going? Yeah. Yeah, sure. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. Let's do the last thing.

vehicles that are for sale. Very, very impressive. 10 booster or suction rockets depending on your configuration. I mean, this is phenomenal. What a cool demo. Production starting in 2028.

I mean, that could be like the last day of 2028, but it's still a time frame. It's basically enter production 2 years from now. Now, obviously, we've heard a lot of promises about the Tesla Roadster and how it's going to happen, what's going to happen, when it's going to come.

This has been promised for 9 years now. But let's break down what this was. What does this mean for the stock? What does this mean for the company? So, here's the scoop. The Tesla Roadster event just happened.

The Tesla Roadster is 9 years late and by the time it enters production, it will actually end up being 11 years late. They started their live stream at 1955 uh tonight, which is a reference to 1955, Back to the Future reference.

No people inside of the demo car, but basically you've got these suction jets that can or fans that can hold the vehicle so that when it's upside down on a ramp, it stays. Or if it's turning in a turn, it could keep you without flipping as you go too fast in a turn.

Elon calls it not necessarily the safest car, but the funnest car. Okay. They also argue this is going to be the only vehicle that Tesla manufactures that is designed to be manually driven in the future.

Now, keep in mind they had to keep the audience so

I don't know how they're going to end up getting those boosters to not be that loud. Uh, and so that's a little bit problematic because I don't know how we're going to enter into production with this in 2028.

So, their next stunt is going to be to jump Snake River Canyon, which apparently is an evil conval reference. Uh so the big thing here is nobody's going to be able to actually get a delivery on this my guess until 2029.

They say production 2028 but you know we we know how the time frames have historically worked. They historically haven't been you know very quick with their time frames. We you know it's been nine years delayed.

Okay. This started when I had one child in 2021. Elon, you know, it was promised to come out in 2020. That was the first promised delivery year. Then it got pushed back because of COVID 12 to 18 months.

It got moved in 2021 to 23. In 23, it got moved to 24. Then they said it was going to ship in 25. In 25 they said they were going to have the most epic demo ever at the end of the year.

Then they set a demo for April Fools of 2026, which ended up being an April Fool. Then March 17th, they said hopefully next month, a next level banger. That ended up, you know, we got told that the event slipped by about a month on the April 2026 earnings call.

And then we were supposed to have the October 1st show that got scrubbed by two weeks due to weather. So that's like eight delays, right?

So, I I'm not really optimistic about that goal of 2028, but that's their goal. I don't see how they're going to get the sound capable of not destroying your eardrums. Maybe you have to wear like headphones when you're in it, but it's really cool. The vehicle looks great.

Remember this Elon says is going to be the only uh manually driven vehicle that Tesla manufactures in the future which is actually kind of exciting.

I don't know how this is going to be licensable on the road, but it's gorgeous. they sort of implied that safety wasn't exactly the top priority with this. That getting to 11 out of 10 on the fun scale was the priority.

Again, the first demo, 0 to 60, was 60 seconds. Uh, and then the next demo that they did, they had a little glitch and nobody put a timer up, but then they later came out and said, "Oh, it was actually 81 seconds."

You know, I can see all the short sellers are going to be like, "Man, this is bull crap, man. We were promised an event that we could actually, you know, buy a car and this is supposed to be like an iPhone where it's like, you know, pre-order in a month and then you get it in two months." That's not what's happening here.

I actually think that this is really just branding for the merger of Tesla and SpaceX.

On August 14th, uh I said twice that I believe that this is an event to market what technology Tesla and SpaceX can accomplish together. And maybe the unironic fact here is that SpaceX needs to raise about $400 billion for their AI initiatives.

And just by raising $40 billion with Broadcom and uh Oracle raising another hundred billion in roughly the same week, the market basically tanked. It's too much sucking and they need to raise 10 times as much.

I said, quote, "I actually think this is about a flying uh car, and it is a marketing pitch for how SpaceX and Tesla can ultimately combine their technologies."

And one of the first things they said as they came out on stage was, "This is what we could do with a collaboration between Tesla and SpaceX. this Roadster."

I don't know if it's really going to be anything more than I hate to say, but like a test track product, at least for the foreseeable future. Uh, it's a marketing pitch for the combination of the two companies, which isn't too terribly surprising given that before this event, we had, and it was a really impressive event, but we had rumors start circulating that the merger between Tesla and SpaceX could happen a lot sooner than expected.

August 14th, I said, quote, "You're not going to get any kind of jet rocket boosted car for $250,000 that flies." I maintain that and I'm not trying to be bearish on it. It's not the goal here at all.

The goal is to say, "This is fantastic technology. This is really cool." And what it does is it actually sells you a vision for how small vehicles can go land on Mars or land on the moon or get us to space and back safely.

That's really what this is. It's a test track video or a test track product that is designed to sell us on the future.

That's why everything here is back to the future. We also, by the way, bought the dip this morning on the NASDAQ 100 when you know we made this call that hey, NASDAQ's likely going to bounce or there's a good chance it bounces at 7:15.

If it does, buy the dip. And that's exactly what happened. and it bounced within 43 seconds of the 715 line and then we went out and threw six figures and bought the dip.

But something that you should look at is the the before this event, Kalshi uh reported that uh or they didn't report the Cali betting market odds actually shot up about a merger right before this.

Now there are $1.5 million that have traded on this. So this is not like a lowflat play here. And what's interesting is you could actually see that the before May 1st 2027 odds shot up from about 40% to currently last updates like what 55ish% something like that.

Yeah, 55%. Uh but all of these odds shifted up about 7%. So somebody made a bet here. Maybe they've got some insider information. We don't know. But somebody made a bet on Koshi that there's going to be a merger sooner rather than later.

And I think they can actually give us a signal for what's happening with uh potentially Tesla and SpaceX. Uh now I have made the argument that Tesla and SpaceX wouldn't end up merging until one of the stocks way outperforms or one way underperforms.

In other words, my thesis has been pretty consistent that if we're stable, nothing happens. I kind of still believe that. So my my belief is a stable Tesla and uh SpaceX price means you know it's it's too expensive and too much of a mess for these companies to merge too much dilution of shareholders on one side.

So uh I think there are two scenario well three scenarios. So if the stocks are stable I think you delay the merger. Uh, I think that if Tesla stock goes way up, then there could be a merger where where there's some form of acquisition one way or the other.

It doesn't really matter. Uh, but then if Tesla ends up getting acquired and it's way up on some kind of squeeze or excitement or whatever, Elon's going to get his stock comp unlocked on the acquisition price.

So, say Tesla goes up to $600 and then SpaceX comes in and says, "We're going to pay $800 for it." Elon can unlock stock comp at the acquisition price, not the publicly traded price.

That's one strategy for Elon. So, that would be a strategy. I think that's one likely option.

The other likely option is that Tesla stock tanks. I'm not saying it's likely that it tanks. I'm just saying the other likely option for an acquisition is Tesla goes down and SpaceX is stable or goes up.

So either stable or up. Uh and then it's very inexpensive for SpaceX to buy Tesla. And either way, I think it all goes into SpaceX so that Elon can have control. That's the goal here is for Elon to have control.

And given that he owns somewhere around 77% of voting shares at SpaceX, that seems to be quite likely. But I don't think under stable stock prices it's likely that this acquisition happen.

So I'm a little surprised to see those betting markets move in that direction.

So again, I want to be clear like I don't know how they're going to pull off getting this into people's production hands. I will I will say this like full width light bar, the Cybert truck styling, cyber cabish styling, I love it.

It doesn't look like the Falcon wings close themselves, which is very normal for a sports car.

self-driving, fantastic. It's the best technology in the world. Starlink, best technology in the world. reusable booster rockets. Everybody's trying to emulate them. Directto cell service, acquiring the 800 megahertz bands to try to get that direct to cell service to where they could actually penetrate your windows and walls.

Brilliant. You know, is the Roadster potentially going to be a flop to where nobody actually ends up being able to own it because it's going to break your eardrums or it's a test track vehicle only maybe.

But the Cyber Cab is freaking awesome. You know, how much how much uh edge training did we do on those? We don't know, right? That's the next catalyst to really figure out is how quickly can we go from edge training on cyber cabs to a new city.

And so that's why I want to know as these cyber cabs are getting validated in Florida or Seattle or Houston, how long from start of validation to completion? I like getting to completion and the faster we get to completion, the better it is for Tesla stock.

The other benefit of a combined Tesla and SpaceX is you probably enable easier liquidity for building out what is really intended to make money right now which is uh the artificial intelligence buildout whether it's through you know attracting people to Grock getting people to use Agentic services uh on X.

Uh I also think that uh it's not a surprise that they're trying to attract a lot of people to start streaming to the platform because there's a lot of money in social media. We all know that right now.

this is Elon uh this is his MO is we're going to do everything. Oh, wow. Somebody just placed some more bets on this, huh? This is Elon's MO to uh to do what he thinks the future is.

And right now the future is the AI buildout. And so whatever they can do to suck more money out of the markets and build out a micro hard and mini hard and the terra fab. The terapab is going to be a combination project between SpaceX and Tesla.

Let's be real about it. And so you're going to have manufacturing on one side, you'll have jets on the other side. And I ship it. Yeah. I'm I'm excited about it.