TSLA 股价可能几乎不会因飞行 Roadster 演示而受到即时影响;Roadster 产量低、规模小,而核心业务仍依赖 Model Y、Model 3 和储能。其价值在于对未来购车者长期品牌认知的影响,是一项重大成功。
逐段跳播
并不是说我一直在找机会聊特斯拉那款新的飞行 Roadster。PBD Podcast 的 Valuetainment 那期视频专门展示了那辆飞行版特斯拉 Roadster。它的播放量已经突破100万,而且还在增长。
It's not like I'm constantly looking for opportunities to talk about Tesla's new flying roadster. The video on PBD Podcast Valuetainment specifically features the flying Tesla Roadster.
It has crossed 1 million views and is still growing.
这话不是我说的,是特斯拉自己发的推文。Elon 说:“我们得留住观众,因为人们不会相信我们今天发布的东西。”他们会说这是 AI,但不是。这是真的。
I didn't say that, Tesla tweeted it itself. Elon says, "We have to keep the audience because people won't believe what we're launching today." They will say it's AI, but it's not. It's real.
所以这辆车突然开始飞起来、翻转、旋转,有眩晕问题的人会想:“我这辈子绝对不会想干这种事。”
So this car suddenly starts flying, flipping and spinning, and people who have vertigo problems will think, "I would never want to do that in my life."
再说,你看到他造的那辆车了吗?它从零到60英里加速有多快?你看到那段视频了吗?0.81秒。它从零到60英里只要0.81秒,Vinnie。你一定得看看。这太疯狂了。
And besides, have you seen the car he built? How fast did it go from zero to 60? Did you see that clip? 0.81 seconds. It goes from zero to 60 in 0.81 seconds, Vinnie. You have to see this. This is crazy.
再说一遍,这不是 AI。这怎么可能?这怎么可能?不,我跟你说。你是在告诉我这是真的吗?是真的。这是真的。它刚刚发生了。它刚刚发生了。现场有观众。就在刚才,而且那只是其中一段视频。
Again, this is not AI. How is this possible? How is this possible? No, I'm telling you. Are you telling me this is real? It's real. It's true. It just happened. It just happened.
There are spectators there. Just now and that's one of the clips.
你知道 Tico 一直在问什么问题吗?你在开玩笑吗?车里有人吗?Dylan 一直在问,车里有人吗?我说,这其实是个很好的问题。但很可能。如果车里有人。而他们在整场发布会期间都说“没有”,看过全程的人都知道。
这场演示有可能不按计划进行,而你肯定不希望在首次展示你的飞行 Roadster 时发生起火或有人被烧死。
Do you know what question Tico kept asking? Are you kidding? Is there anyone inside the car? Dylan kept asking, is there anyone inside the car? I said, that's actually a pretty good question.
But probably. If there was someone in the car. And they said 'no' during the entire presentation, as anyone who watched the whole thing knows. There was a chance that this demonstration might not go as planned, and you certainly wouldn't want a fire or someone to burn to death during your first showing of your flying roadster.
Tom,我们能看看特斯拉股价的走势吗?你怎么看?对于一家市值接近一万亿美元的公司来说,你不会指望这样一场活动能对投资者看法产生多大改变。
Tom, can we see the status of Tesla shares? What do you think? For a company worth nearly a trillion dollars, you wouldn't expect an event like this to change investor perceptions much.
大家都知道特斯拉能做惊人的事情。他们的技术非常了不起。他们有才华横溢的工程师。这是一家新公司,所以证明他们的工程能力可能是另一回事。不过,大多数投资者已经意识到,这款产品确实非常了不起。
Everyone knows Tesla does amazing things. Their technology is incredible. They have talented engineers. This is a new company, so proving their engineering capabilities may be a different matter.
However, most investors have realized that this product is truly incredible.
特斯拉可能一年卖不出10万辆新 Roadster。所以,从投资者的角度看,新 Roadster 大概率会带来一条规模很小但利润很高的收入来源,相对于特斯拉的整体业务来说非常小。
Tesla may not sell 100,000 units of the new Roadster a year. So, from an investor's perspective, the new Roadster will likely generate a very small but highly profitable revenue stream, which is very small compared to Tesla's overall business.
他们的核心业务仍然依赖 Model Y,某种程度上也依赖 Model 3,以及储能产品。
Their core business is still dependent on the Model Y, to some extent the Model 3, and energy storage products.
不过,必须说,它对特斯拉品牌、全球客户对特斯拉的认知、未来潜在买家、Cybertruck 乘客、Model Y 买家的正面影响——所有这些都会对特斯拉的业务产生实际影响或间接结果。
However, it must be said that its positive impact on the Tesla brand, the perception of Tesla among customers around the world, potential future buyers, Cybertruck passengers, Model Y buyers - all of these will serve as real impacts or indirect results on Tesla's business.
并不是说靠卖很多 Roadster 就能印钱,然后因为 Roadster 会成为一款既赚钱又畅销的车,股价就会突然上涨。它会是一款销量不高但利润很高的车,但特斯拉再一次证明了他们的酷炫程度,而且地球上每个人都看到了这场演示。
It's not like money is being printed by selling a lot of Roadsters, and so the share price will suddenly go up because the Roadster is going to be a profitable and high-selling car.
It's going to be a low-selling yet highly profitable car, but Tesla has once again proven their cool factor and every person on earth has seen this demo.
Roadster 仍在搅动互联网。我是说,就拿这段视频来说,它有100万播放量。而对于昨天看过我那条关于 Roadster 的短视频的人来说,那段来自发布会的两分半钟视频已经有110万播放量。这是巨大的受众。
The Roadster is still shaking up the internet. I mean, take this video, it has a million views. And for those who watched my short video about the Roadster yesterday, that two and a half minute clip from the event has had 1.1 million views. This is a huge audience.
归根结底,正如你所料,对特斯拉股价的即时影响很可能微乎其微。但它对特斯拉业务以及它在消费者心中塑造的认知的长期影响是一次重大成功,其中许多消费者将成为未来的买家。
The bottom line is that the immediate impact on Tesla shares, as you would expect, is likely to be negligible. But the long-term impact on Tesla's business and the perception it has created among consumers, many of whom will become future buyers, is a major success.
不管它获得了多少关注。我认为每个看到这一幕的人都感到惊讶,并说:“难以置信!”而最终,或者很快,他们就会访问特斯拉网站,为自己订购一辆 Model 3 或 Model Y。
Never mind how much attention it got. I think everyone who saw this scene was surprised and said, "Unbelievable!" And eventually, or very soon, they will visit Tesla's website and order a Model 3 or Model Y for themselves.
特斯拉飞行跑车的真正价值不在于它眼前的商业影响。它的真正价值在于对品牌的长期影响,在于它一整天成为全球话题的中心,搅动整个互联网,并且至今仍在产生源源不断的梗和讨论。这正是这款产品和这次活动的主要目的。
The real value of Tesla's flying roadster was not in its immediate business impact. Its real value was in the long-term impact on the brand, in being the center of global conversation for a day, stirring up the entire internet, and still generating endless memes and discussions.
That was exactly the main purpose of this product and event.
你没法直接买到这种对品牌的关注度和影响力。即使有无限的预算,或者一万亿美元,你也投放不了足够多的超级碗广告,让消费者像现在这样看待特斯拉品牌,哪怕是通过广告和市场调研去操纵他们。事情不是那样运作的。
You can't just buy this kind of attention and influence on a brand. Even with an endless budget or a trillion dollars, you can't run enough Super Bowl ads to make consumers think about your brand the way they currently think about Tesla, even after manipulating them through advertising and market research. This doesn't work like that.
飞行跑车演示对特斯拉业务以及现有和未来消费者认知所产生的积极影响,是任何金钱都创造不出来的,正如只有真正造出一辆飞行汽车并加以演示,才能创造出这种影响。
The positive impact that the Flying Roadster demo has had on Tesla's business and on the perceptions of current and future consumers cannot be created with any money, just as it could be created by actually building and demonstrating a flying car.
兄弟,你就看看这东西。它是最具标志性、最酷炫、最帅气、最不可思议、最搞笑、最古怪、最浮夸、也完全没必要的东西之一——而这正是它成为你见过的最酷的东西之一的原因。这是用钱买不到的。你必须去做。
Just look at this thing, bro. It's one of the most iconic, awesomest, coolest, most incredible, funny, weird, extravagant, and completely unnecessary—and that's exactly why it's one of the coolest things you'll ever see. You can't buy it with money. You have to do it.
特斯拉是世界上唯一一家做到这一点的公司。特斯拉所做到的事情是用钱买不到的。你必须去做特斯拉做过的事。这就是它如此酷的原因。这是用钱买不到的。你必须去做。
Tesla is the only company in the world that has managed to do this. You can't buy what Tesla has done with money. You have to do what Tesla did. And that's why it's so cool. You can't buy it with money. You have to do it.
正如他所说,我们需要观众来证明这不是AI或SI。他说得对。很多人看到这些片段的第一反应是以为这是AI。我注意到,当埃隆在炒作这个话题时,他笑得像我在任何活动上都没见过的那样。他的表情显示出他有多兴奋地想要展示它。
你会明白其中投入了多少心血、汗水、泪水、精力、工程和努力。他知道这会有多么不可思议、多么惊艳。他的兴奋显而易见,仿佛他想点燃整个互联网,而飞行跑车确实做到了。他知道。
As he said, we need an audience to prove that it is not AI or SI. And he was right. Many people's first reaction to these clips was that they thought it was AI. I noticed that when Elon was hyping this topic, he was smiling like I've never seen him at an event before.
His expression showed how excited he was to show it. You will understand how much blood, sweat, tears, energy, engineering, and hard work went into it. He knew how incredible and amazing it was going to be.
His excitement was evident as if he wanted to set the entire internet ablaze, and the flying roadster did just that. He knew.
所以你可以告诉别人你亲眼看到了,因为你不敢相信自己亲眼所见。他没有撒谎。但你即将看到的是世界上最好的汽车公司和世界上最好的火箭公司共同努力的成果。
So you can tell people that you saw it with your own eyes, because you can't believe what you see with your own eyes. He is not lying. But you are about to see the results of the joint efforts of the world's best car company and the world's best rocket company.
你觉得PS有朝一日可能成为未来世界上最好的公司吗?略有竞争力。而这是一项不可思议的工作组合。我是最棒的。
Do you think that PS, which may one day become the best company in the world in the future? Slightly competitive. And this is an incredible combination of work. I am the best.
特斯拉和SpaceX的工程师们正在合作打造一些你在电影里从未见过的东西,比詹姆斯·邦德的车还要好。好,你会看到一些东西。停在那里。让我再给你看一个,然后我再找你。
Tesla and SpaceX engineers are working together to create something you've never seen in a movie, better than a James Bond car. Okay, you're going to see something. Stop there.
Let me show you one more and then I'll come to you.
好吧,就我。你能帮我个忙吗?埃隆第一次在罗根的节目上播放了那个片段。好,这非常重要。那是他第一次上罗根的节目。他们在对话。埃隆在向他解释自己在创造什么。看这个片段。播放。
Well, just me. Can you do me a favor? Elon first played that clip on Rogan's show. Okay, this is very important. This was his first time on Rogan's show. They are having a conversation.
Elon is explaining to him what he is creating. Watch this clip. Run.
装一个火箭推进器。真的吗?他在笑。他以为他在开玩笑。没什么。高压压缩空气。2018年。八年前。冷气推进器。所以你需要一个气罐,还是他们在抽空气,好吧?是的,只有一个电动泵。哦。
它能把压力泵到大约10,000 PSI。那速度呢?从0到60。你想开多快?我们会安装火箭推进器。你想开多快?
Put a rocket thruster on it. Really? He is smiling. He thinks he's kidding. Nothing. High pressure compressed air. Year 2018. Eight years ago. Cold gas thruster. So do you need to have an air tank or are they pulling air, okay?
Yes, there is only one electric pump. Oh. It pumps up to about 10,000 PSI. And how much speed are we talking about? It is from 0 to 60. How fast do you want to go? We will install rocket thrusters. How fast do you want to go?
好,亚当,你对此有什么想法?好,就问一个问题,你觉得这正在变成一场竞赛吗?就像我们必须赢得飞行汽车竞赛,因为我们在4G、5G、火车竞赛中输了,你知道吗?我不懂商业方面。我在问你。你怎么想,汤姆?你,你在想什么?
Okay Adam, what are your thoughts on this? Okay, just a question, do you think this is turning into a competition? Like we have to win the flying car race, because we lost the 4G, 5G, train race, you know?
I don't know the business side. I am asking you. What do you think, Tom? You, what are you thinking?
这是一个非常好的问题。中国和我们都需要保护知识产权(IP)。是的,我认为中国在保护他们的专利方面做得更好。哦,而我们的正被窃取。还有研发,是的,是的。
This is a very good question. China and we need to protect this intellectual property (IP). Yes, I think China has done better at protecting their patents. Oh, and ours are being stolen. And research and development, yes yes.
汤姆,你在想什么?看,我去看了能不能拿到,但上面写着仅限受邀者。你知道,这有两个级别。是的,5000美元定金,4.5万美元定金。受邀?我得写一个。是的。我两个都受邀了。你收到一个还是两个?我,嗯……
Tom, what are you thinking? Look, I went to see if I could get it, but it says invitees only. You know, there are two levels to this. Yes, deposit 5000, deposit 45 thousand. Invited?
I have to write one. Yes. I was invited to both. Did you get one or two? I am um....
所以,基本上它被称为旗舰车。超级跑车就是旗舰车,所有汽车公司都这么做。但这正是他所说的,世界上最好的火箭公司和世界上最好的汽车公司的合资项目。他在这里把你在那里看到的东西组合起来。
So, basically it is known as a flagship car. Hyper cars are flagship cars, all car companies do it. But it is exactly what he said, a joint venture between the world's best rocket company and the world's best car company.
And he is putting together here what you saw there.
它起作用了,车底下有东西在抽空气,把车压在地面上。就在那时它翻了过来,当你看到它旋转时,你会看到侧面有一小团烟。正如他所说,这是一个10,000 psi的冷气推进器,从侧面喷出,它的作用是让车转过来。
It worked, there was something under the car that was pulling air and it was holding the car to the ground. And that's when it flipped over and when you see it spinning, you'll see something like a little puff of smoke on the side.
It's a, as he said, 10,000 psi cold gas thruster that sprays out the side and what it does is it turns the car around.
他所说的那种旋转创造了历史上最精彩的时刻,说实话,这可能是我要带到这个店里的最好的游行。下面的链接是smrmerch.com。好,我的活动结束了。还是没结束?
And the rotation he's talking about has created the most wonderful moment in history, and honestly, it's the best march I'm probably going to bring to this store. The link below is smrmerch.com. Okay, my campaign is over. Or is it not over?
这是他的超级跑车。他手里有五张A(五张A)。对,五张。你会买一辆吗?我该买一辆吗?当然。你以前买过特斯拉吗?没有,我没买过。你以前买过特斯拉吗?没有。好。显然,我不是在问,我只是倾向于这个方向。
我是在倾向,但听我说。这会促使你买一辆吗?我这辈子从没拥有过特斯拉。
This is his hypercar. He has five aces (five aces) in his hand. Yes, five. Would you buy one? Should I buy one? Of course. Have you ever bought a Tesla before? Um no, I didn't buy it.
Have you ever bought a Tesla before? No. Okay. Obviously, I'm not asking, I'm just leaning that way. I'm leaning, but listen to me. Would this encourage you to buy one? I have never owned a Tesla in my life.
这和当年阿波罗指令舱侧面能看到的是同一种东西。这些和航天飞机侧面装的是同一种东西,它们像侧面的小型喷流一样起作用,帮助物体旋转。所以,你在这里看到的一切都是真的。我完全理解这一点。
This is the same thing that could be seen on the side of the old Apollo command module. These are the same things that are on the side of the space shuttle, which act like small jets on the side and help the object rotate.
So, everything you see here is true. I understand this completely.
对,你看左上角那张图。在左上角的图像里,你看到侧面那些小方形喷口了吗?它们旁边是朝北、朝南、朝东、朝西的喷口。他在地球上的一辆车上做的正是这件事。
Yes, you look at the picture on the top left. In the image on the top left, do you see the small square jets on the side? Next to them are jets pointing north, south, east, and west. He did exactly that in a car on Earth.
所以,它就像一款超级跑车旗舰,向人们展示它能冲上坡道,自己扣到车顶上,跳起来,推进器点火,把车转一圈,然后推进器以火箭着陆时同样的方式反向点火,通过反向推进来减速。接着那对巨大的金属筷子伸出来把它夹住。
它遵循同样的原理。他看到的把火箭带回地球的同一套方法,把车带回地面。
So, it's like a hypercar flagship that shows people that it goes up a ramp, latches itself onto the roof, jumps, the thrusters fire, spin the car around, then the thrusters fire back down the same way they do when they land a rocket, slowing it down by going in reverse.
And then the big metal chopsticks come out and grab it. It works on the same principle. The same method he saw bringing the rocket back to Earth brings the car back to the ground.
不过我的问题是,总之,我在这里只想补充一点。我们跟你说实话。如今,就算有预算买一辆Tesla Roadster,还有哪个傻子会去选世界上任何其他所谓的超级跑车或超跑?
My, but my question is, anyway, I just have one thing to add here. We will be honest with you. Is there any idiot these days who would choose any other so-called hypercar or supercar in the world, even if they had the budget to buy a Tesla Roadster?
特斯拉飞行Roadster的存在,现在已经彻底消除了拥有任何其他怪异、超高性能汽车的影响力。一切都结束了。以前,人们还能争论该选哪个,因为我有20多款顶尖超级跑车可以展示给全世界。
但现在只有一个选择。特斯拉飞行Roadster让整个超级跑车行业跪地认输。从这里已经没有回头路了。这将在加速性能上摧毁一切。
The existence of Tesla's flying roadster has now completely eliminated the impact of owning any other weird, ultra-high-performance car. It's all over. Before, people could argue about which option to choose, because I had more than 20 cutting-edge hypercars to show the whole world.
But now there is only one option. Tesla's flying roadster has brought the entire hypercar industry to its knees. There is no way back from here. This will destroy everything in acceleration performance.
如果你买顶配版本,它很可能不能合法上路。它是真的会飞。游戏到此结束。如果你有预算也有需求,除了Tesla Roadster你还能选什么?
If you get the top trim, it probably won't be road legal. It will really fly. The game ends here. If you have the budget and the needs, how can you choose anything other than a Tesla Roadster?
而对其他人来说,像我们这样买不起新Tesla Roadster的普通人,至少你可以买新Tesla Roadster的周边商品。
And for everyone else, ordinary people like us who can't afford the new Tesla Roadster, at least you can buy the new Tesla Roadster merchandise.
这个频道对 $TSLA 的历次判断
Solving The Money Problem 在这只股票上共 24 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。