在SpaceX与Tesla的交易中，Tesla是更有利的一方：预计SpaceX将在2027-2028年发行股票并以至少30%的溢价收购Tesla，使持有者在原本已高企的估值之上再获溢价。若股价回落至295美元，将是买入机会，不过该交易只是很可能发生，并非板上钉钉。

Many are asking: "Kevin, how do we deal with the SpaceX and Tesla merger?"

and how that might affect... the Tesla-SpaceX merger? First, you should know that one of the reasons Elon Musk wants to complete this merger sooner rather than later is for political reasons.

Because by a certain date, we are likely to see a lot of antitrust laws that will prevent such a deal. This date is January 2029. In other words, it is essential for Elon Musk to complete the Tesla and SpaceX merger by January 2029.

I am quite sure that you can even find a prediction market on the Calchi platform for the Tesla and SpaceX merger . You can check that.

So, January 29, or rather January 2029. Is the deadline for this merger that there is a high probability that the Democrats will win a landslide majority in 2028, and we will see something like...well , we will see a second version of the monopoly, where the Democratic Party leadership will impose strict limits on large mergers, and will reject them.

Therefore, I expect significant government obstruction to the SpaceX-Tesla merger process starting at least in 2029. That's what I predict.

This, in turn, increases the likelihood that this deal will be completed sooner rather than later. I don't think this deal will happen before the midterm elections, but that's okay.

I don't necessarily think it should happen before we end up with a divided political system. The Democrats may win the midterm elections and Donald Trump may become president, and there will be fewer problems.

However , we may see more investigations from Democrats against Trump or Elon Musk, but it will be extremely difficult for Democrats to control the US government's antitrust power until they win the presidency.

Therefore, I believe that 2029 is the right timeframe for this merger, i.e., between 2027 and 2028. We expect SpaceX to issue shares and acquire Tesla.

Why is this important? Because SpaceX's stake is expected to be reduced to complete the acquisition of Tesla. But to complete this acquisition, we first need the approval of the shareholders.

Okay, so which side of the problem lies in? There is no problem on SpaceX's side. This has already happened because Elon Musk owns the vast majority of voting shares, which currently exceeds 77%.

The percentage may be between 77% and 84%, but this is the current situation. Current estimates suggest that his control over voting at SpaceX is so large that it doesn't make much of a difference .

Therefore, he will be able to approve the acquisition of the two companies.

He has clearly stated that he supports the acquisition due to the complementarity between them. Let's be clear, the idea of a flying car was nothing more than a marketing ploy for this merger.

We know it's coming, but the question is when and how it will happen. Well, I expect that to happen. SpaceX will acquire Tesla,

as Elon Musk has no voting control, meaning that this giant company will eventually fall under his complete control, just as Mark Zuckerberg does with Facebook or Meta.

This is what many believe, and it resembles the latest hypothesis in venture capital: that companies that perform better in the long run achieve better results. I personally agree with this.

I like to look at companies whose founders have withdrawn , such as Archer Aviation, in which I have never invested. In Archer Airlines, I view it as an example of a company that merged with a special purpose acquisition company ( SPAC), and six or nine months after the merger, the CEO withdrew , sold his shares , and founded a new company.

I do not respect this behavior. I don't think that's appropriate behavior. I admire the mindset of founders like Elon Musk, Berkshire Hathaway, and Mark Zuckerberg. We will endure through thick and thin, and we will get through this phase , won't we? I really like this.

So, I think many people see this as an opportunity for Elon to say, "Now I'm in complete control." Now you can really bet on Elon Musk's company.

In short, it's: advanced artificial intelligence, SpaceX, Tesla – it's all in one company. These are Optimus robots, Starlink, Starship, semi-trailer trucks, cars, fully autonomous driving, smart taxis, and robot taxis. That's a lot, isn't it?

Solar energy and battery storage. I mean, you're betting on this huge industry. Battery manufacturing, chip manufacturing, and the new cloud computing, which is no longer known as entirely new cloud computing. It is more like a super- scale computing level.

I mean, they now have about 1.7 gigawatts. They expect to reach 2.3 to 3 gigawatts by the end of the year.

They will soon have the same computing power as Microsoft, Meta and Amazon, and perhaps even surpass them once they raise more money .

It is a huge organization, a very huge organization. So, the question many people are asking is: Well, how can this situation be dealt with? We know that getting SpaceX's approval is the easiest part because Elon Musk controls it.

Therefore, this issue does not pose any problem at all.

We expect SpaceX to issue shares because it will have to issue bonds to finance all the money needed for the Terrafab project and to scale up its gigawatt-powered computing.

All of this will be done through the issuance of bonds. Therefore, it is not possible to issue shares to raise funds and shares for Tesla at the same time, because that would put a lot of pressure on the share price.

It is also not possible to issue bonds to purchase electronic chips and bonds for Tesla at the same time , because that would exhaust the ability to borrow. So, I expect—and I could be wrong about everything I say in this video— that SpaceX will issue shares and acquire Tesla at a price higher than its market value.

Brad, a member of the special committee evaluating the merger's feasibility, indicated that the premium could range between $420 and $550 per share. I think we will most likely see a premium of at least 30% on Tesla shares, regardless of their current price, to complete the acquisition.

Now, what does this mean for actual investment? Well, this means, first and foremost, that Tesla is currently being sold at a significant price premium compared to SpaceX.

SpaceX shares are currently trading at a price-to- earnings ratio of about 0.9, while Tesla shares are trading at about 4.8 , meaning that Tesla's relative value, based on its price-to- earnings growth ratio, is about four times higher than SpaceX's.

Therefore, Tesla being the most expensive is a big advantage for Tesla shareholders, because they essentially get a very large price premium.

Why? Because Elon does not have complete control there. Elon only owns what is somewhere...meaning , for example, he probably owns between 18 and 20% of the voting rights in Tesla.

Therefore, he has to pay a price premium for Tesla shares. This actually makes Tesla the better option in this deal, think about it. For Tesla, regardless of near-term stock price volatility , it is likely to receive an additional 30% return, and this is likely to occur in 2027 or 2028, within this range.

As for SpaceX, it will issue shares, which will dilute the share value. You will be issuing shares at a premium on top of a premium , right? So, I regret to say , but SpaceX stock looks rather bearish because you're paying a premium on top of a premium .

You are paying a 30% premium on an already high Tesla valuation. In other words, SpaceX shareholders are being exploited. However, the one who makes the decision or holds the controlling voting rights is Elon Musk.

He can simply decide to be exploited here as long as he pays premium upon premium to all shareholders here to vote in favor of the merger within this timeframe .

Therefore, the choice is Tesla. Owning Tesla shares gives you a premium on top of a premium if this merger takes place in 2027 and 2028.

I could be wrong. This is not personal financial advice. If you make any decision based on what I say, you could lose your money. I'm not promising you anything. I don't guarantee anything.

I'm the person who posts videos on YouTube saying, "Your friend Kevin lost a lot of money, okay?" Therefore, there are absolutely no guarantees.

But, from my point of view, it makes sense to buy Tesla shares in a deal that seems almost certain, because you will get a large return. Does this mean that Tesla's stock will rise steadily from now on?

both. If we don't reach an agreement with Iran, the value of both Tesla and SpaceX could drop significantly.

Doubts may arise regarding the deal. It is also possible that Elon Musk wants to reduce the chances of the deal going through. And then Tesla's stock price will drop even further to become cheaper in the near term, won't it?

Yesterday, Elon sounded strangely realistic about the Optimus Project timeline and the challenges it faces. I wondered to myself: Are you trying to lower the share price because you want to acquire it at a lower price? maybe.

He is also a major owner of Tesla shares, and if they manage to sell them at a higher price, he will receive compensation in shares. But I don't know how important that is. This is the kind of logic that...is the method we prefer to use when studying stocks, and we conduct in-depth fundamental analysis of companies at Reinvest One, which I highly recommend you join.

We have another price increase in 8 days. So you have plenty of time to assess the situation and make a decision. Remember, by joining us, you will receive Alpha membership, trading alerts, and the Stocks Terminal platform, which will be released in the fourth quarter .

It has not been released yet, but it will be released in the fourth quarter . We are extremely excited about it. You will also get Reinvest Homes, Reinvest Research Terminal, all nine courses, live streaming for course members, and Agentic AI charts for consumers and businesses.

Frankly, I think the Agentic AI business blueprint alone would be of great value. It alone will cover the entire cost of your membership . You pay once, and you get lifetime access, which is really great.

I think you will look for moments of volatility in Tesla stock, and you will buy Tesla shares if you are trying to trade and get the best possible deal. So, let's take a look at Tesla stock and review some indicators to give you some guidance.

I believe the bounce point at $347 is an excellent entry point for Tesla stock. We have seen repeated bounces at this level outside of the intense selling pressure from LiuFold.

With the intense selling , the price dropped significantly, and we reached a level of $295.

If we return to this level in the event of no agreement with Iran or something similar, it will be a buying opportunity for Tesla stock. Ironically, Tesla's stock price is currently very overpriced, but it will be a buying opportunity when the merger is completed, because you will see huge price increases.

This is my personal opinion, not personal financial advice. Some of these things, such as our in-depth fundamental analysis, our technical analysis, our daily alpha reports, and more, you will only find on the Reinvest One platform.

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I think a rebound in the stock from $347 would be desirable to enter into a Tesla stock purchase deal. I believe that when an agreement is reached with Iran, Tesla's stock price will rise to more than $414.

Therefore, its price will increase. Tesla benefits greatly from what resembles a sell-out option from SpaceX. SpaceX essentially ensures that Tesla's stock price doesn't drop significantly, and that's a good thing.

Unless the merger doesn't happen for some reason , but I think... the chances of that are very slim, because I think Elon Musk is eager to complete this merger sooner rather than later, because acquiring the company in 2029 would completely derail the deal.

So, you can even bet on it. Let's take a look at the currently popular predictions. Before May, the probability of the deal being completed is 56%. Let's see how far we can speculate.

Before the 28th, the probability of the deal being completed is 78%.

I am surprised that there is no market for betting on the completion of the deal before 2029, as I am certain that it will be completed . But here, you can speculate a little about the timing of this deal.

I don't necessarily think they have to rush. I think any time in 2027, or even 2028, would be appropriate. Nobody wants that to happen during an election period. So, if I update the timeframe a little, I don't want to be within the timeframe of political conflicts.

You probably need to be in the year 2027. That is, from January 27 to July 2028 approximately. This is the timeframe I recommend.

If you can seize opportunities when Tesla's stock price drops between now and then, you will receive a rewarding bonus. But the problem, of course, is that if we don't reach an agreement with Iran, Tesla's stock price will collapse.

You might be thinking about this: Is it possible that the economy could go into recession because of a failure to reach an agreement with Iran, and then Tesla's stock price could drop to $50 per share, for example? Then SpaceX shares rise by 30%