$TSLA · Solving The Money Problem · 2026-11-02

So, Elon posted about Tesla vs. Waymo and said, "Quote, it was never a real competition."

Here's the dollar-per-mile calculation , with Cyber Cabs estimated to cost 20 cents per mile , at least that's what they're seeing today. The Model Y costs 16 cents per mile,

If Cyber Cab is launched on a large scale, it will cost 20 cents per mile. If Tesla could offer a much better experience in their dedicated robotaxi, Cyber Cab, and offer more advanced services at half the cost, like touchscreens, the Tesla app knowing where Spotify was the last time you got in the car, adjusting the heating, cooling, everything to your liking, it would do it for you.

Tesla will take over their entire market. One last point about costs. Tesla is the only company in the entire world today that produces a large number of attractive electric cars and actually makes a profit by selling them to customers.

Today, no automaker has been able to match Tesla's cost of producing electric cars. So, if no company in the world can even come close to Tesla's cost of building an electric car in terms of features, performance, and functionality.

You know, Tesla only uses cameras to build their cars.

They simply created a high-performance car at a low cost. Tesla Robotaxi is now available in Fort Worth, Texas.

I remember a guy named Three suggesting, before the first robotaxi city launched, that Tesla would generally work from top to bottom in the top 100 cities in the US based on population.

But generally speaking, aside from the objections of Democrat-controlled cities , where they might not want robotaxis, you'll see Tesla pushing ahead in larger cities based on population, because that's where they'll benefit the most.

Another recent update is that service hours are now from 6 am to 2 am. They've pretty much covered the entire time now.

That is, 24-hour service would be technically good, but the number of people seeking transportation services between 2 am and 6 am is very low. They will surely increase it over time.

Maybe the end time will be 3:00 AM and the start time will be 4:30 AM, something like that. But remember, this closure time is perfect for car recharging , cleaning, and maintenance.

For those who missed the news of the geofence expansion in Houston, Texas, this is also part of Texas. And while we're talking about Texas, I saw a post by Nick on X , where Tesla currently has 1,204 robotaxis in the state of Texas, while Waymo's Texas fleet has 1,259.

Tesla cars 1,204. This was made possible by adding 120 new cars in just one day and 658 in the last 30 days.

Tesla already operates a robotaxi service in Dallas. Fort Worth is actually located very close to it. Naturally, at some point these two service areas will merge with each other and meet in the middle.

Tesla is on the verge of overtaking Waymo's Texas robotaxi fleet in a very short time. They are rapidly expanding from city to city and are strategically moving towards the most populous metropolitan areas in the United States.

They are also working in states where some rules and regulations are relaxed. A little more in Texas, a little more in Florida. They have huge cost advantages. They can build robo-taxis or cyber cabs much faster than any other competitor.

It will end the same way. Tesla will grow, reach massive scale, outperform everyone in terms of cost, and dominate the market.

a friend of mine sent me a message today and she said she noticed an issue with the Fort Worth geofence. And I admit, at first glance it did n't look like a penis or a starship to me.

but that doesn't address the huge cost advantage, scale of production, and improved user experience of Tesla's hardware. teach companies to build cheap, fast, efficient, beautiful, elegant, and technologically advanced electric cars like Tesla's Cybertruck.

Because otherwise , I don't understand how AI will solve the problem of hardware cost and scale. If Elon can successfully and quickly build Terafab , he will win because he will then be able to build many more Cybertrucks.

See what happens. Tesla is building cybercabs at a much faster rate than any rival robotaxi company. Tesla will strategically fill cities one after the other , usually prioritizing cities with higher populations first.

They will reduce the cost of their service per mile, so that it is in line with other available robotaxis. Because if you make it very cheap too quickly and there are no robotaxis, the waiting time will become unbearable.

You will get early adopters , but their demands should not be unreasonable either. However, you will have cost advantages.

So the main limitation is how many robotaxis you can deploy in a city , until you reach the saturation point. And the more robotaxis there are, the less you can offer service , so that the waiting time doesn't get to an absurd level.

You keep them consistent with each other and eventually you'll fill the city with 2,000, 5,000, or 10,000 robotaxis. You will own the market , you will have the lowest prices, the fastest wait times and the best service, which is very affordable.

As I was saying, Tesla is the only company that offers this service and can build its own cars , let alone put them on the road at a fast pace , and they are currently producing about 2 million cars a year.

If Tesla Cybertrucks spread everywhere, they would be everywhere. And in any major city in America, you can open the app and see a car is a second or 30 seconds away, which is a better and cheaper service than Waymo.

first of all, I love my Tesla. I have a Tesla Model Y 2026 Juniper model. I love it. This is great. I use FSD.

I think Tesla now gives drivers an FSD score, which is the percentage of time you spend in automatic driving. I think my score is above 96 or 97 percent right now. Go from Boston to New York without any interference. This is wonderful.

But I'm not sure if Tesla is really in it, in an era when Elon is moving towards SpaceX , and there's been a lot of writing about it, NASA isn't as keen on contracts as it used to be.

Similarly on Tesla's side, if Tesla and SpaceX merge, given Salim's statement, would Elon really think too much about all the maintenance and infrastructure required for Cyber Cab?

Would a combined Tesla-SpaceX really think about maintaining Cybercab , or would it just be considered a cost item , as was the case with building Supercharger stations?

At one point, there was so much unrest in their Supercharger team that Tesla essentially stopped making Superchargers.

Will it be something where it's just a nice thing to do , to show shareholders that Tesla is thinking about AI and autonomy In the long term, I doubt that SpaceX's superintelligence compute business alone will surpass Autonomy on a large scale, in terms of revenue and profit, even Autonomy's complete global dominance.

But, Tesla wouldn't say, "Yeah, actually, no ." "You know, we wouldn't do that."

Now, the maintenance issue is real, but spoiler alert, there is an Optimus humanoid robot. Imagine how many lives would be saved through large-scale autonomy. This is a huge incentive.

There's a reason Tesla makes the safest vehicles in the world. This will happen, and they will do their best to expand autonomy as widely and quickly as safely possible.

Another thing to note is that they will sell Cyber Cabs to commercial fleet operators , whose job will be to maintain them. Spoiler alert, not Tesla.

Or Alex, will this population of millions of cybercabs become infrastructure for the SpaceX ecosystem and will it act as a repeater for Starlink ?

Look, it will have bandwidth, it will have electricity, and it will be spread among the people of a busy city. But if he really believed this , wouldn't he have focused more on producing Cybercabs and less on producing Optimus robots ?

I was hoping for Optimus robots, Starlink femtocells or whatever, and real-time mapping of urban environments, but do you think Cybercab is best for that, not Optimus?

I think the Cybercab will have 20 kilowatt hours of power, it will be near people, and it will have Starlink connectivity built-in from day one.

I think people are missing something about Cybercab , it's really about being the first to hit the market and seeing how they can be mass produced in a few years.

So, if Elon drops 40,000 Cybercabs into Austin, New York, and London, he'll have the market under his control, because would you want to bring a new Waymo car to that market?

And if you look at the numbers, you can understand that he can capture a few first-tier cities and then move on to second-tier cities. I think he's thinking of Optimus first, which will then build more Cybercabs, but just crunch the numbers for each city.

How many trips and how many cybercabs would you need instead, and how much would it cost? And how difficult is it for a second company to survive in that city ? Very well captured.

As I've been saying , Tesla's strategy will be quite simple. They are currently setting up bases in various cities. Occupying a small space, which is the most important step. Obtaining legal approval to operate robo-taxis on a relatively small scale and in small areas in a city.

Just building a foundation, planting a seed. Strategically, one after another. Here is a seed, there is a seed, here is a foundation, there is a foundation. Then, you can strategically decide, okay , now is the time to take over the city of Austin completely.

We will be releasing 3 weeks of production just for Austin. Then Dallas, then Miami, then Los Angeles, then New York. Continuing to produce full-time cybercabs for a few days, a few weeks, maybe a few months.

Capture the city, take control of the market, and the game is over.

How will a so-called rival taxi service like Waymo survive in a city where you can get a Tesla Cybercab anywhere, anytime, for a very low cost in less than a minute? Why would they enter that market?

But that's of course because I'm a blind Tesla fan, not because I'm right. My new 20-year valuation model for Tesla and SpaceX is now live on Patreon for backers at investor level or above.