USO因技术支撑和低隐含波动率而适合短期战术性买入，但其基于期货的结构在地缘政治紧张局势缓和或原油曲线正常化时存在长期风险。
逐段跳播
好，Don，我们来看看你们两位是否意见一致，以及你们如何看待美国原油基金（USO）。你对这只股票的预期是什么？
Okay, Don, let's see if you two agree and how you view the United States Oil Fund (USO) here. What are your expectations for this stock?
首先，我很钦佩他。他持相反立场。记住一点，KJ。如你所知，我并没有错，我只是经常太早，对吧？那么，转到（USO）。如你所知，我最近一直在更广泛地观察石油，而石油市场中最值得注意的一点是，它已经开始出现一些抛售活动。
我的意思是，这只是价格表现，而价格通常就是这样，对吧？那里正在发生一些抛售活动。真正引起我注意的是石油市场中期权链的偏离，或者如果你愿意的话，是这种偏离的缺失。现在，对于那些不熟悉“期权专家”术语的人来说，我具体所说的背离是，我们目前并没有计入我们所说的上行尾部风险。
石油市场现在似乎几乎不担心出现强劲的上行跳涨，而这，你看，我可以坐在这里谈论那些非常明显、你知道、并且在中东已经显而易见的地缘政治风险。至于选举，尽管美国在选举前可能不会采取任何行动，但我认为存在重大的地缘政治风险；因为中东那些人意识到，美国在选举日之前不太可能采取任何行动。
但把这一切放在一边，我在石油市场上看不到多少上行偏向，而且我真的认为，正因为如此，这里的交易定价非常有效，也就是说，交易员并没有看着石油说它可能会强劲向上反弹。而我喜欢这个仓位。
Well, first and foremost, I admire him. He takes the opposite stance. Remember something, KJ. I, as you know, am not wrong, I'm just often too early, aren't I? So, moving on to (USO).
As you know, I've been taking a broader look at oil lately, and one of the most notable things within the oil market is that it has begun to see some selling activity. I mean, this is just price performance, and this is what price usually does, right?
Some sales activities are taking place there. What really caught my attention in the oil market was the deviation in the options chain, or if you prefer, the absence of that deviation.
Now, for those who are not fluent in the jargon of "option experts," what I am specifically talking about with regard to divergence is that we are not currently pricing in what we call upside tail risk.
The market right now in oil seems to have almost no fear of a strong upward jump, which is something that, look, I could sit here and talk about the geopolitical risks that would be very obvious, you know, and are already obvious in the Middle East.
As for the elections, although the United States may not do anything between now and the elections, I think there are significant geopolitical risks; Because they in the Middle East realize that the United States is unlikely to take any action between now and the election date.
But putting all that aside, I don't see much upside bias in the oil market, and I really think trading here is very effectively priced in because of that, meaning traders aren't looking at oil and saying it might bounce strongly upwards. And I like this positioning.
因此，在USO基金中，我会选择10月30日到期的期权合约。不远，10月30日。我会买入执行价为148的看涨期权，并卖出执行价为153的看涨期权。这笔交易将以1.80美元的折价成交。
我所期待的是迅速回到上行，以及目前似乎缺失的部分隐含波动率重新燃起。市场现在对石油漠不关心，好像在说：“嗯，一切都会好的。”但如果事实并非如此，这笔交易可能会非常奏效。
Therefore, in the USO fund, I would choose option contracts that expire on October 30th. Not far off, October 30th. I will buy call options at an execution price of 148 and sell call options at an execution price of 153.
This transaction will be done at a discount of $1.80. What I am looking forward to is a swift return to the upside, and a rekindling of some of the implied volatility that seems to be missing at the moment.
The market right now is looking at oil with indifference, as if they are saying, "Well, everything will be fine." But if that's not the case, this deal could work very well.
好，KG。你在这里看到了什么？因为正如Don刚刚指出的，地缘政治风险担忧仍然非常明显。我们甚至在夜间目睹沙特航空当局宣布两座机场遭到袭击。诚然，西德克萨斯中质原油价格仍徘徊在90水平下方，但从技术角度看，你对USO怎么看？
Okay, KG. What do you see here? Because, as Don just pointed out, geopolitical risk concerns are still very much present. We even witnessed during the night the Saudi aviation authority announce that two airports had been attacked.
It is true that the price of West Texas Intermediate crude is still hovering below the 90 level, but what do you see for USO from a technical perspective?
确实，从技术角度看，这笔交易是合理的。我的意思是，Don看着它说：“左侧存在潜在的尾部风险。”这将是股价的下跌。然而，如果你从技术角度看，在一年期的日线图上，这个金融工具经历了盘整，随后突破。
地缘政治风险显然在其中起了作用。我们看到了明确形成的通道，尤其是上行通道。我们已经在7月看到一次向下突破，打破了更高高点与更高低点的假设。我们在这张图上看到一个略低的低点，但它成功回升，现在又进入了另一个上行通道。
我们正在接近支撑区。事实上，我们昨天测试了它，你可以看到小幅向上反弹。你可能会说：“嗯，USO基金可能会回到153水平附近。”这是我们在9月24日看到的水平。这似乎合乎逻辑。然而，相对强弱指数（RSI）正在录得更低的高点，而MACD指标处于看跌形态。
True, from a technical point of view, this deal makes sense. I mean, Don looks at it and says, "There are potential tail risks on the left side." This would be a decline in the value of shares.
However, if you look at it from a technical perspective, on a daily chart over a year, this financial instrument has experienced consolidation followed by a breakout. Geopolitical risks clearly play a role in this.
We have seen well-defined channels created, especially upward channels. We already saw a downward break in July, which broke the higher tops and higher troughs hypothesis. We saw a slightly lower bottom on this chart, but it managed to recover and has now established itself in another upward channel.
We are approaching the support zone. In fact, we tested it yesterday, and you can see a slight bounce upwards. You could say, "Well, the USO fund might return to around the 153 level."
This is the level we saw on September 24th. This seems logical. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is recording lower highs, and the MACD indicator is in a bearish formation.
然而，如果我们看下一张图，我想强调一下这只投资基金的一些情况。这只基金是期货合约以及互换的混合体。因此，这只基金的表现大多优于原油。这就是为什么我们实际上在9月15日看到，USO正在创下周期内新的相对高点，而原油本身并未创下新高。
因此，这只基金能够从期货合约之间的价差中获利。所以，这对该基金目前来说是一个积极的推动，但如果我们看到紧张局势缓和，或者如果我们开始看到原油曲线回归正常，未来它可能会成为阻碍。
技术面看起来对Don真的很好。战术交易，或者说短线交易，似乎合乎逻辑。但从长期来看，鉴于其结构，USO可能会面临一些劣势或障碍。
However, if we move on to the next chart, I would like to highlight something about this investment fund. This fund is a mix of futures contracts, as well as swaps. Therefore, this fund has mostly outperformed crude oil.
This is why we actually see, on September 15, that USO is recording new relative highs in the cycle, while crude oil itself is not recording new highs. Thus, this fund was able to profit from the difference between futures contracts.
So, this represents a positive boost for the fund at the moment, but it could become a hindrance in the future if we see a lull in tensions, or if we start to see the crude oil curve return to normal.
The technical situation looks really good for Don. Tactical trading, or short-term trading, seems logical. But in the long run, USO may face some disadvantages or obstacles, given its structure.
这个频道对 $USO 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。