好，Don，我们来看看你们两位是否意见一致，以及你们如何看待美国原油基金（USO）。你对这只股票的预期是什么？
Okay, Don, let's see if you two agree and how you view the United States Oil Fund (USO) here. What are your expectations for this stock?
首先，我很钦佩他。他持相反立场。记住一点，KJ。如你所知，我并没有错，我只是经常太早，对吧？那么，转到（USO）。如你所知，我最近一直在更广泛地观察石油，而石油市场中最值得注意的一点是，它已经开始出现一些抛售活动。
我的意思是，这只是价格表现，而价格通常就是这样，对吧？那里正在发生一些抛售活动。真正引起我注意的是石油市场中期权链的偏离，或者如果你愿意的话，是这种偏离的缺失。现在，对于那些不熟悉“期权专家”术语的人来说，我具体所说的背离是，我们目前并没有计入我们所说的上行尾部风险。
石油市场现在似乎几乎不担心出现强劲的上行跳涨，而这，你看，我可以坐在这里谈论那些非常明显、你知道、并且在中东已经显而易见的地缘政治风险。至于选举，尽管美国在选举前可能不会采取任何行动，但我认为存在重大的地缘政治风险；因为中东那些人意识到，美国在选举日之前不太可能采取任何行动。
但把这一切放在一边，我在石油市场上看不到多少上行偏向，而且我真的认为，正因为如此，这里的交易定价非常有效，也就是说，交易员并没有看着石油说它可能会强劲向上反弹。而我喜欢这个仓位。
Well, first and foremost, I admire him. He takes the opposite stance. Remember something, KJ. I, as you know, am not wrong, I'm just often too early, aren't I? So, moving on to (USO).
As you know, I've been taking a broader look at oil lately, and one of the most notable things within the oil market is that it has begun to see some selling activity. I mean, this is just price performance, and this is what price usually does, right?
Some sales activities are taking place there. What really caught my attention in the oil market was the deviation in the options chain, or if you prefer, the absence of that deviation.
Now, for those who are not fluent in the jargon of "option experts," what I am specifically talking about with regard to divergence is that we are not currently pricing in what we call upside tail risk.
The market right now in oil seems to have almost no fear of a strong upward jump, which is something that, look, I could sit here and talk about the geopolitical risks that would be very obvious, you know, and are already obvious in the Middle East.
As for the elections, although the United States may not do anything between now and the elections, I think there are significant geopolitical risks; Because they in the Middle East realize that the United States is unlikely to take any action between now and the election date.
But putting all that aside, I don't see much upside bias in the oil market, and I really think trading here is very effectively priced in because of that, meaning traders aren't looking at oil and saying it might bounce strongly upwards. And I like this positioning.