AAPL 全部观点

We got huge news for Apple stock investors on Wednesday as the company announced its first ever foldable iPhone and it'll go to market at less than $2,000 a piece, a price point I was curious if they were going to be able to hit.

So, this is big news for Apple stock investors. I had two big questions surrounding this launch, this event, this product that I wanted to discuss here and update my buy, hold or sell rating for Apple stock and reveal my fair value estimate for Apple as well.

You've got Apple uh actually doing really well here up about 2.3%

Apple's still holding on to a percent despite the rest of the market being a little fussy.

Apple's up about 13.

our take is this phone is going to sell as many units as Apple can produce at least in the near the next 3 to 6 months. but I do think in the near term if Apple can just sell 5% of the install base or 5% of the units to the uh to the dual model that will alone drive about 25 billion of revenues and about five I think work very well u it's supply constraint not demand constraint focus on quality and battery life happen

Let's focus in on Apple's chart as this has been, you know, one of the more fascinating uh stories not only over the last 24 hours, but I will argue going back to late April as it's almost been the counter to the AI infrastructure trade.

This has been a company that has not committed uh to buying and investing to the same extent that many of its mega cap tech peers have. And sometimes on these days where you see the AI infrastructure trade under pressure, it's days like that where Apple is a bit more rewarded.

Apple introduced updates and some new its long anticipated foldable iPhone yesterday at its first event hosted by new CEO John Turnis.

All right, so the foldable phone is here from Apple. What' you think? I think it is far more than I was expecting. I had a little bit of a chance to use it yesterday and it is uh probably one of the best uh foldables on the market and it just it feels like Apple's bringing back this innovative spirit of just new products, new experiences, new devices.

Apple's surprise and shine event took place yesterday. The company introduced iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, new foldable iPhone duo, new Apple Watch models, AirPods 5.

The stock was down yesterday, but it's looking up premarket, even in a down market. Now, it's still down for the week. The stock started the week around 220, but it is actually up in pre-market.

Apple let's talk Apple I'm not here to complain you know I'm not a complainer I'm just trying to sympathize sympathize if I can say that word with guys that are you know having a little bit of um you know back and forth and not a lot of traction um because I've been doing this a long time and I know a lot of guys who've been doing this a long time and they're not loving the tape either.

Um Apple, so I've talked about this a lot. You know the I personally some people like Red Dog, it's like Vision Pro. Remember that freaking thing that Apple had that you know kind of like the metaverse and nobody bought it?

They're like that's what this I'm like no way. like this the the new phone the the foldable phone um I think could sell 10 million units which could add money to the bottom line.

Uh, next up, we've got Apple. Now, forgive me. I've already got my fib tools on here illustrating these pivot lows and highs in which we're going to illustrate where price can eventually go, a price level that I will be interested in buying.

So, let's get back to the weekly time frame so I can really show you what's going on on this chart. You can see here we've did breach the top range of this parallel channel and we'll go back and show you where that began back in January of 2023.

And in doing so, after breaking above, look at this nasty weekly red candle and the price action that's followed since. This has all been bearish consolidation right on top of this parallel channel.

Now, let's flip back on these fib retracement tools and you can see what I'm seeing here on Apple. We've got a very nice potential setup right here under $300, the 618 back to the strongest fib retracement levels.

Why do I pick this level? Because look back here in December 1st of 2025, a previous pivot high that occurred at $28,8862. This fib retracement level is about $5 away from that level.

Both of those combined tell me if we see more further selling pressure, we're likely coming down to this level and could have a decent bounce. The third uh piece of information that tells me that we could come down to this level, well, bare flags produced measured moves, folks.

And what do measured moves give us? They give us a target of where price could go. And you can see what I've just drawn here. That measured move can take price down to 286. Now, I've got three things on this chart telling me price can go down here into this pocket.

If price plunges down into here, that would be even better as we usually see the biggest bounces occur from the sharpest moves to the downside. So, be mindful. Be watching price action under $300 on Apple.

If we do eventually break back within this parallel channel, that value is at 309 and55. Key measured move target down here at 2.8650.

You say what really matters of everything we got today is not this foldable phone, it's not the iPhone 18, it's not the watch, it's not any of that. It is the software update that is coming our way on Monday.

Because it sort of bears out this thesis that I've been putting forth, you know, in the face of much criticism for the last couple of years. And that is that this walled garden that Apple has, what they're now referring to as personal context, is the real value behind what Apple has to offer in AI moving forward.

We're down about 1% right now on Apple stock event finishing here. You could see the typical kind of volatility. Not unusual that on event day the stock goes down. It pretty much happens every time.

And that's also what we said in the alpha report this morning. We're like, bro, it's it goes down every time. [laughter] No guarantees, but it goes down every time afterwards.

Here's my personal reaction on the Apple iPhone Duo and the latest changes to the iPhone Pro 18. This obviously the 17 Pro Max and how they're trying to sort of compete in the iPad Mini space which we happen to have right here.

In my opinion, that's should you buy it and ultimately what is this going to do to Apple's stock? First things first, let's be very clear just up front about Apple stock. I'm not trying to shill this stock.

I think I only have exposure to Apple in my retirement account. It's not even in my main portfolio or my main exposures.

Our tech spotlight is all Apple. The company held its surprising shine product launch event. Oh, it's got to be the new iPhone duo, which I thought they were going to call the iPhone Ultra.

They come out and they called it a duo. It's a new 5.4-in phone that unfolds into what looks like an iPad mini-shaped device from Apple. And that's incredibly exciting. There've been rumors about this for a long time.

The foldable genre has been around for 7 years, give or take. And this is the first time Apple's taken a serious shot at actually uh launching one of their own. So that's incredibly exciting. It's a whole new category for them.

Now your last one I find the most interesting just because of the timing of today's event. You've got Apple as your three in the big three here. How are you looking at Apple?

At some $2,200, I do not love that idea. You know, I'm uh just crazy enough to own just about every Apple product out there. But, uh there's no way I'm paying this $2,200 for a uh for a flip phone.

It's just I think that that's a bit extreme. And you know, I uh uh again, this marketplace in Apple, look uh Rick, I'm not even looking at the chart on this one. I'm fading the flip phone.

That's that's what it comes down to. I'm fading the flip phone. This one's going to be a very very short-term trade. And you know, I've actually seen this with a number of some of the recent product releases from Apple.

So, major product release comes out, the marketplace kind of absorbs it, has a little sellside activity after it. That's really what I'm going after over here. But again, the price increases.

Look, I I you know, I've never said this before, but when it comes to a uh to a phone, a,000 bucks, I can swallow that. Maybe 1,200. Let's get crazy. But when you start talking about $2,000 for a phone, I'm out of the contest at that point.

Uh, with that, I'm going to go out to the SE 18. That's not that far out, right? So, SE 18 is going to be a rather short duration trade. We're not talking zero DTE, but about a week out.

I'm going to be buying the 310 puts, buying the 310 puts, selling the 305 puts again. So, it's just a nice tight $5 wide put spread done for a$140 debit. Just a little sellside activity.

Look, you may see a pop after this announcement, which should actually make this trade even more advantageous to get into, but the uh the truth is I want to fade uh a $2200 flip phone, which uh by the way is uh unfortunately it's a little, you know, too late.

Uh if you haven't looked, uh pretty much everybody out in the Android side already has that. Not saying I'm Android. I'm not going to go that far, but uh I'm not thrilled with the uh the price point on this Apple product.

Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft are under pressure, weighing down the market even as the Nasdaq 100 nears breakeven. But I want to focus on Apple, as it is the subject of today's "Inside Out" segment.

Let's take a look inside Apple and anticipate today's "surprise and shine" event.

Marie, Apple, that's all she didn't even say good morning, just Apple. Good morning, Marie. And Apple is the big story today. Remember, they're going to have their event. We're suspecting they're going to introduce a foldable iPhone, new iPhone 18 models.

How will Apple trade here today? Apple week in the pre-market. Down about a dollar here. We'll see how that shakes out here today.

Apple Apple has the big unveiling today. So this afternoon, we're going to hear about new products from Apple. Supposedly, they have some sort of foldable phone that they're going to be debuting.

That's already in the stock price. That's not If they debut it, that's going to be of no interest to where the stock goes. It's already again been talked about. Everyone's assuming it's going to happen.

If it doesn't happen, that would be the bigger shock.

Let's talk about "Apple". Stocks did not change much in trading before the market opened here. We have an upcoming event ahead of us. Is there any possibility of it being a motivator today?

It appears that a lot of information regarding this event has already leaked to the market. So , who knows if we might get something that hasn't been reported before. This is an event full of surprises and suspense.

The event begins at 10:00 AM Pacific Time , but the market is expecting the launch of the first foldable iPhone, a " bi-fold iPhone," so to speak. The price of this phone is around $2000, and of course some updates are expected for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, with updated camera lenses and software updates, in addition to the possibility of updating the Apple Watch itself.

Therefore, many analysts believe that Apple could actually control about 40% of the foldable phone market . We'll see if that actually happens.

There are many who expect Apple's stock to decline, saying, "This is ridiculous, who would want that?"

As usual, Apple employees feel some nervousness ahead of these events. Therefore, Apple's stock price is currently fluctuating around $315. It is not the cheapest stock at the moment , as it is trading at a price close to 3.7 basis points.

This assumes current earnings per share estimates and annual growth of approximately 9% over the next four years.

and then we will discuss Apple’s $2,000 phone.

I think Apple was on the list,

Ah, " Apple" for example.

On June 20, 2025, we did an episode about "Taff" with me, Michael, Todd Son, and Josh. And Michael, I said that we are at a very critical juncture for Apple.

very critical juncture for Apple. This is a ratio chart that you, Michael, shared in the previous podcast, and I ticked it when that episode aired. It simply shows the price of Apple divided by the SPY index.

Your point of view was that we were facing a very important dividing line , where the question was: "Will Apple collapse and the situation become very bad, or will this be a bounce point?", and that is exactly what happened; It was a reversal point, which, I think, reflects the importance of technical analysis, doesn't it?

I have seen a very important level that the stocks have touched several times and have maintained that line.

Next, we go to Apple. Apple today is trending a little bit lower. So Apple had a big drop on Friday, continuing to drop today. Now the thing to realize about Apple is tomorrow they have their big unveiling event.

Now this is going to be the first big unveiling of new gadgets or products that Apple will be doing since Tim Cook just left. So this is a big one. Now if you look at the price action, the markets so far are not buying the rumor, right?

often times you'll see Apple trend up into an unveiling and then sell off afterwards. Kind of working the opposite here. Now, that could work in the advantage of the stock, meaning that if it continues to sell today into tomorrow's unveiling, we might see a bounceback.