Steve Miller 对 $SMCI 的判断变化

《A Cautionary Picture in Semiconductors - SMH Multiple Time Frame Analysis》

SMCI 处于区间震荡且偏向下行；负面动能和周期形态支持略微偏空的立场，而大幅反弹和11月3日的财报使高隐含波动率成为可能。它可能需要到年底才变得可投资，届时可能转为盈利。

刚才说的是 Nvidia。这里是 SMCI 这只股票。这只股票已经公布了财报，其表现极其波动。我想让你看这里的这些周线周期形态，它们当然指向一直到12月的一段时间。它虽然跌破支撑位，但正试图在这里守住，而这里是日线图。

所以，这里是他们提高了预期、股价上涨的地方，但财报要到11月3日才会在这里发布。所以你可以看到这里的周期形态和那里的大幅上涨。你看这个，动量转为负值，在我看来，你可能实际上是在这里进行区间交易。

所以，对于这类股票，当我看到这种走势时，我要找的是一个交易区间，因为这可能是那种你可以实施“跨式”或“宽跨式”策略的股票之一，如果你是期权交易者的话。所以，那就是区间，你可以看到它当时大致处在区间的中间。

我会寻找一个略微偏空的机会，因为动量是负的，周期形态看起来也是负的，但你有这波大幅反弹，而且财报即将公布，所以你很可能会看到较高的隐含波动率。不过，在我看来，如果你是投资者，这只股票可能需要等到年底才变得可投资。

在我看来，这只股票到那时可能会变得有利可图。这就是 SMCI，也就是 Super Micro。目前，在我看来，它被限制在某个交易区间内，并带有下行倾向；这是对它现在最准确的描述。所以，SMCI 的情况就是这样。

That was Nvidia. Here's the stock, SMCI. This stock has announced its earnings and its performance has been extremely volatile. I want you to look here at these weekly cycle patterns, which of course point to a period up to December.

While it drops below the support level, it is trying to hold here, and here is the daily chart. So, here's where Umm... they raised expectations and the stock went up, but the earnings report won't be released until November 3rd here.

So you can see the periodic pattern here and this large rise there. When you look at this , the momentum turns negative, and it seems to me that you may actually be trading within a range here.

So, with this type of stock, when I see this kind of movement, what I'm looking for is a trading range because this could be one of those stocks where you can implement a "straddle" or " strangle" strategy if you're an options trader.

So, that's the range there, and you can see that it's roughly in the middle of the range at that point. I would look for an opportunity with a slight bias to short here because the momentum is negative, and the cycle patterns look negative, but you have this big bounce and there is the earnings announcement coming up, so it is likely that you will see high implied volatility.

However, it seems to me that this stock may need time until the end of the year before it becomes investable if you are an investor. It seems to me that this stock may become profitable at that time.

This is SMCI, i.e., Super Micro. Currently, it seems to me to be confined to a certain trading range with a tendency towards the downside; this is the most accurate description of it now. So, that's what SMCI is all about.

看原视频14:43

《askSlim Market Week Brief 10/22/26 - Analysis of Financial Markets》

SMCI 困于一个明确的区间内，且偏向下方——动能与周线周期形态均偏负，因此我倾向于卖出。在年底之前，它可能不值得投资者关注；11月3日财报前后隐含波动率较高，适合采用跨式或宽跨式策略。

这是SMCI。这家公司公布了财报，其表现极其波动。我想让你看看这些周线周期形态，它们当然指向12月，而当价格跌破支撑位时，它在这里企稳，这是日线图。这里他们上调了预期，股价上涨了，但财报要到11月3日才会发布。

如你所见，这里的周期形态很明显，这是一次大幅上涨。当动能转为负向时，在我看来，你可能是在这里的一个既定区间内交易。所以，对于这类股票，当我看到这类走势时，我要找的是一个价格区间，因为如果你做期权，它可能是那种可以用“跨式”或“宽跨式”策略的股票之一。

这就是这里的区间，如你所见，目前处于区间的中部。我会在这里寻找一个略微偏向卖出的机会，因为动能是负向的，周期形态看起来也是负向的，但你有这波大反弹，利润也随之而来，所以它很可能会出现较高的隐含波动率。

This is SMCI. This company announced its earnings, and its performance was extremely volatile. I want you to look at these weekly cycle patterns, which of course point to December, and when the price drops below the support level , it stabilizes here, and this is the daily chart.

Here they raised their expectations and the share price rose , but the earnings report will not be released until November 3. As you can see, the periodic pattern is evident here , and this is a large rise.

When momentum turns negative, it seems to me that you may be trading within a defined range here. So, with this type of stock, when I see this type of movement, what I'm looking for is a price range, because it might be one of those stocks that you could use a " straddle" or "strangle" strategy on if you're an options trader.

This is the range here, and as you can see, it is the middle of the range at this point. I would look for an opportunity with a slight bias towards selling here, because the momentum is negative, and the cycle patterns look negative, but you have this big bounce, and here come the profits, so it is likely to see high implied volatility.

看原视频15:54