SMH 这一页 8 条观点条目，其中 2 条方向发生变化。
SMH正在形成W形态，带有更高的低点，所以看起来不错。我持有这两个，而且我在周五买入了SMH。
The SMH is doing a a W pattern with a higher low, so that looks good. I got these two and I got the SMH on Friday.
好的，我现在要做的是切换到SMH指数。那么，你对SMH有什么看法？我们在节目早些时候收到了对SMH分析的请求，我说过我会在这里展示。
Okay, what I'm going to do now is switch to the SMH index. So, what did you say about SMH? We received a request for SMH analysis earlier in the program, and I said I would present it here.
有趣的是，我通常不对SMH进行分析；凯蒂或RV团队会做，你可以看到他们预计市场在这段时间内会下跌。这里有一个之前的低点，与我要在纳斯达克指数中展示的低点相对应，你可以看到这里的指标指向下方，这意味着它可能再次下跌。
Interestingly, I do n't usually conduct an analysis of SMH; Katie or the RV team do, and you can see that they were expecting this market to move downwards in this timeframe. There was a previous low here that corresponds to the low I'm going to show you in the Nasdaq index, and you can see here that the indicators are pointing downwards, which means it may go down again.
这是SMH基金。半导体今天表现非常好，相比之下。我们可能即将在SMH这里实现更高的高点。看这张图表，我们发现SMH实际上正在向上突破一条漂亮的下降趋势线。伙计们，如果这种上升趋势继续下去，我们可能会朝着接近600美元的水平前进。
It is the SMH fund . Semiconductors perform very well today in comparison. We may be on the verge of achieving an even greater high here at "SMH" . Looking at this chart, we find that the SMH is actually breaking a nice downtrend line upwards.
Guys, if this upward trend continues, we could be heading towards a level closer to $600 in SMH.
现在我要做的是，我将查看 SMH、XLF、XBI 作为股票市场的代理，因为它们如何对齐。然后我们将查看纳斯达克和标普 500，如果还有一点时间，我们将查看 VIX，然后我将向你展示市场状况监视器，展望未来。
Now what I'm going to do is I'm going to look at SMH, XLF, XBI as proxies for the stock market because how these align. Then we'll look at the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 uh and if uh have a little time we'll look at the VIX and then I'll show you the market condition monitor uh moving forward.
我以前对SMH做过这个。
I've done this with this SMH in the past.
接下来是半导体板块，各位，你们都知道，我喜欢把半导体作为领先指标来跟踪。各位，周五发生的事情是你们所有人都可以跟踪的，因为我试图一步一步地帮助你们理解，短期内半导体是会看涨，还是会有点看跌。
Next up into the semis, guys, and then as you all know, I love following the semis as a leading indicator. And guys, what happened Friday is something all of you guys can follow because I've tried to go step-by-step to help you understand whether we're going to be bullish near-term with the semi in uh with the semis or we're going to be a little bit bearish.
我要提醒大家，我一直在强调这张图上的移动平均线，这样做是有原因的。大家可以看到屏幕上蓝色的 50 日移动平均线。我们曾有一天收于该均线之上，随后便出现了技术性抛售。这次抛售已将价格推回至自“解放日”低点以来一直限制价格运行的平行通道内。
Most importantly, I'm gauging bullish sentiment with this chart right here, the SMH, guys. And the SMH, as you see here, finished basically flat on the day, down .01%. Now, after hours, slipping just ever so slightly in anticipation of these Nvidia earnings.
And I'll remind you guys, I've been highlighting these moving averages on this chart, and I've been doing so for a reason. You see this 50-daily moving average in blue that comes in through the screen.
We had one day above it, and then a technical sell-off from that point. The sell-off has pushed price back into the parallel channel that price has been contained since the liberation day lows.
接下来，SMH也下跌了。这个比我们之前覆盖的其他指数跌得更重。你可以看到SMH今天下跌了2.43%。不错的下跌，但看看发生了什么，我上周就强调过这一点，各位。我一直在家里研究SMH，说：“各位，长期模式以及半导体都是领先指标，所以要注意两者。
我们图表上显示的长期上升平行通道，加上这是看涨活动的领先指标，但我们正接近某些存储股的另一个反弹水平。我们稍后会在节目中讨论。首先，让我们看看SMH跌回这个平行通道。对于没有看过的观众，或者提醒那些看过的，这个平行通道始于2025年4月的解放日低点。
你可以看到今年7月的这次下跌，我们实际上刺穿了它，但只有四五个交易日，然后我们迅速反弹回到上方。所以，今天的大新闻就在这张图表上，SMH重新回到那个平行通道内。如果抛售在明天继续，下一个支撑位将在图表上的$526.10。
非常不错的重新进入这个平行通道的入场点，但如果不下跌并触及支撑，可能很难确认。确认需要日线收盘低于今天的低点$546.75。所以，我明天会非常非常密切关注SMH。
Next up, the SMH also declined. Now, this one heavier than the other indices that we've covered so far. You can see down 2.43% on the SMH today. Nice decline, but look what happened, and I did highlight this last week, guys.
I've been drilling at home with the SMH saying, "Guys, the longer-term patterns, as well as the semis, are leading indicators, so pay attention to both in the semis. Our long-term inclining parallel that we've got displayed on our chart, and then plus this is a leading indicator for bullish activity, but we're getting close to another bounce level on certain memory plays.
Something that we're going to cover a little bit later in the show. First off, let's look at this SMH dropping down back into this parallel channel. For any viewers who have not seen this or to remind the ones that have, this parallel began back here at the liberation day lows back in April of 2025.
You can see with this fall that we had here in July of this year, we actually pierced got inside of it, but only four or five trading days and we quickly bounced to get right back above.
So, the big news story of the day today is right here on this chart with the SMH getting back within that parallel channel. Next support, should the selling presume in into tomorrow resume into tomorrow, it's going to be at $526.10 on the chart.
Very nice entry back into this parallel, one that could be hard to confirm without coming down and tagging support. Confirming it would be a daily close under today's low at $546.75.
So, I'm going to be watching the SMH very, very closely tomorrow.
