StockCharts TV on $SMH (Oct 28, 2026)

Um, SMH is the semiconductor ETF. As I'm sure you've noticed if you've been watching the markets this week, we've had a pretty good bounce in the AI trade. And the SMH, the semiconductor ETF, is a great way to to sort of uh, you know, recognize that uh, that short-term investor sentiment.

What's interesting is uh, in the month of October going into this week, it's been a pretty negative week for uh, the SMH. The SMH was up around 640 at the beginning of October.

It's currently sitting around 560 after going down to as far as 520 uh at the end of last week. Now, at the end of the last week, as we tested that 520 level, we were also just slightly above the 200 day moving average.

Now, the semiconductor ETF, even though it's been pulling back in the short term, has still been above this long-term trend barometer, the 200 day moving average. And I just wanted to note on this chart, the 200 day moving average lines up really well with a 50% retracement of the March low to the June high on the SMH.

We can see that the 38.2% level right around 550. The 50% level right around 516. That's pretty much where the SMH bottomed out uh here at the end of July. So um important as we come back to that level and the 200 day moving average, we have this confluence support.

I would say on a chart like this we break below 520 that would clear and 515 really would break below the 200 day would break below the 50% level probably next objective similar to what we talked about on the uh on the chart of meta we look at the 61.8% 8% level, which is right around 480.

But that would be the next uh potential area of support.

Right now, with a stock like or with an ETF like the SMH, it's in what I call moving average limbo. We're below the 50-day, but still above the 200 day, which tells me that the long-term trend is still okay, but the short-term weakness has taken below the 50-day.

This is actually a pretty straightforward chart, I would say, from a technical perspective because one of two one of three things is going to most likely happen in the next week or two.

The bullish outcome is we break above the 50-day. So, I probably set an alarm or set an alert around 575. Uh um uh stock breaks above uh 575, that's a bullish outcome. Stock breaks below 515, that would take us below this confluence of support.

I would say that would be a pretty uh bearish breakdown for the SMH. ETFs remains between 515 and 575. I'd say it's neutral, right? That's why we call it moving average limbo. We're sort of waiting between the 50 and the 200 day. which one of these breaks first.

Does the momentum validate that? Do we get that follow-through day after we break through the moving average? That's what I'd be watching for on the chart of the SMH.

But I think it's worth noting as there's been a lot of questions about the AI trade, you know, kind of uh pulling back big time in the month of October going into this week with Anthropics IPO.

Uh there's certainly a new injection of optimism in that space uh this week. so far. We'll see what happens as we get more earnings from some of the hyperscalers on Wednesday and Thursday after the close.

But for now, I think SMH watching the 200 day moving average is absolutely crucial.

So, SMH for now holding the 200 day. I think that's absolutely crucial to watch.