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StockCharts TV on $SMH

StockCharts TV has discussed $SMH in 2 videos since 2026-10-28. The latest, on 2026-11-04, was bearish.

2026-11-04Bearish
“Tech Is Breaking Down. So What’s Keeping the S&P 500 Afloat?”
AI summary · SMH has formed a huge double peak and, after long strong performance, is testing its 200-day moving average for the first time in a while while approaching oversold; the setup looks extremely ominous. An open gap with weak support below may eventually be tested, and there is risk if the oversold approach fails to spark the usual strong demand.

Another reason for this, of course, is that the technology sector has begun to decline, and as we know, it dictates most of the price movement of the S&P 500 index. At the forefront of this, of course, is the Semiconductor Exchange-Traded Fund ( SMH).

And frankly, it's a double peak, and a huge peak at that. We can look here at the time when there are smaller bearish patterns that have been activated, or marginal bearish breaks that have not been able to go beyond this area downwards .

Now that the SMH index has returned to that same level, its appearance is extremely ominous. It is now testing its 200-day moving average for the first time in a while, and is again approaching oversold territory, something we haven't seen in a long time.

This does not usually happen, especially in the SMH index, which has performed well for a very long time . So, it goes without saying that there is an open area below this level, a gap with weak support that may eventually be tested, and of course, it resembles a void, and if it opens up, it may drag a lot with it, right?

This is no longer surprising, but we must keep these risks in mind, especially if approaching the oversold zone does not stimulate the strong demand we usually see when the SMH index declines.

2026-10-28
“How to Spot Real Breakouts Using the 200-Day Moving Average”
AI summary · SMH is in moving-average limbo: below the 50-day but above the 200-day, so the long-term trend is still okay while short-term weakness has taken it below the 50-day. Over the next week or two, above 575 would be bullish and a break below 515 would be a bearish breakdown, with roughly 480 the next support; between 515 and 575 he calls it neutral, and he would watch momentum follow-through after a break.

Um, SMH is the semiconductor ETF. As I'm sure you've noticed if you've been watching the markets this week, we've had a pretty good bounce in the AI trade. And the SMH, the semiconductor ETF, is a great way to to sort of uh, you know, recognize that uh, that short-term investor sentiment.

What's interesting is uh, in the month of October going into this week, it's been a pretty negative week for uh, the SMH. The SMH was up around 640 at the beginning of October.

It's currently sitting around 560 after going down to as far as 520 uh at the end of last week. Now, at the end of the last week, as we tested that 520 level, we were also just slightly above the 200 day moving average.

Now, the semiconductor ETF, even though it's been pulling back in the short term, has still been above this long-term trend barometer, the 200 day moving average. And I just wanted to note on this chart, the 200 day moving average lines up really well with a 50% retracement of the March low to the June high on the SMH.

We can see that the 38.2% level right around 550. The 50% level right around 516. That's pretty much where the SMH bottomed out uh here at the end of July. So um important as we come back to that level and the 200 day moving average, we have this confluence support.

I would say on a chart like this we break below 520 that would clear and 515 really would break below the 200 day would break below the 50% level probably next objective similar to what we talked about on the uh on the chart of meta we look at the 61.8% 8% level, which is right around 480.

But that would be the next uh potential area of support.