$SMH · StockCharts TV · 2026-10-28
SMH 处于均线之间的悬空状态：低于50日均线但高于200日均线，因此长期趋势仍然尚可，而短期疲弱已使其跌破50日均线。未来一两周内，站上575将偏多，跌破515则构成看空破位，下一支撑约在480；在515至575之间他视为中性，并会在突破后关注动能的跟进情况。
逐段跳播
SMH 是半导体 ETF。如果你这周一直在看盘，肯定已经注意到，AI 板块出现了一波相当不错的反弹。而 SMH 这个半导体 ETF，是捕捉这种短期投资者情绪的好方式。有意思的是，10月到本周这段时间，对 SMH 来说其实是相当负面的一周。
SMH 在10月初大约在640，目前大约在560，上周尾段一度跌到520。上周尾段我们测试520这个位置时，也刚好略高于200日移动均线。半导体 ETF 虽然短期一直在回调，但始终位于这条长期趋势基准线——200日移动均线——之上。
我想在这张图上指出，200日移动均线正好与 SMH 从3月低点到6月高点的50%回撤位吻合。可以看到38.2%的位置大约在550，50%的位置大约在516，这基本上就是 SMH 在7月底触底的位置。
所以当我们回到这个位置和200日移动均线时，这里有共振支撑，这很重要。我会说，在这样的图上，如果跌破520，那就跌破了；而515就真的会跌破200日线、跌破50%回撤位，下一个目标很可能——类似我们在 Meta 图上谈到的——看61.8%的位置，大约在480。那将是下一个潜在支撑区域。
Um, SMH is the semiconductor ETF. As I'm sure you've noticed if you've been watching the markets this week, we've had a pretty good bounce in the AI trade. And the SMH, the semiconductor ETF, is a great way to to sort of uh, you know, recognize that uh, that short-term investor sentiment.
What's interesting is uh, in the month of October going into this week, it's been a pretty negative week for uh, the SMH. The SMH was up around 640 at the beginning of October.
It's currently sitting around 560 after going down to as far as 520 uh at the end of last week. Now, at the end of the last week, as we tested that 520 level, we were also just slightly above the 200 day moving average.
Now, the semiconductor ETF, even though it's been pulling back in the short term, has still been above this long-term trend barometer, the 200 day moving average. And I just wanted to note on this chart, the 200 day moving average lines up really well with a 50% retracement of the March low to the June high on the SMH.
We can see that the 38.2% level right around 550. The 50% level right around 516. That's pretty much where the SMH bottomed out uh here at the end of July. So um important as we come back to that level and the 200 day moving average, we have this confluence support.
I would say on a chart like this we break below 520 that would clear and 515 really would break below the 200 day would break below the 50% level probably next objective similar to what we talked about on the uh on the chart of meta we look at the 61.8% 8% level, which is right around 480.
But that would be the next uh potential area of support.
目前，像 SMH 这样的 ETF 处于我所说的移动均线夹缝中。我们在50日线下方，但仍在200日线上方，这告诉我长期趋势仍然没问题，但短期疲软已经把它压到了50日线下方。
Right now, with a stock like or with an ETF like the SMH, it's in what I call moving average limbo. We're below the 50-day, but still above the 200 day, which tells me that the long-term trend is still okay, but the short-term weakness has taken below the 50-day.
从技术角度看，这其实是一张相当清晰的图，因为未来一两周最可能发生三种情况之一。看涨的结果是我们突破50日线。所以我大概会在575附近设个闹钟或提醒。股票突破575，那就是看涨结果。
股票跌破515，那就会跌破这个共振支撑区。我会说，那对 SMH 来说会是相当看空的破位。如果 ETF 维持在515到575之间，我会说那是中性，对吧？这就是我们称之为移动均线夹缝的原因。
我们就是在50日线和200日线之间等待，看哪一个先被突破。动能会验证这一点吗？突破移动均线之后，我们会迎来延续走势日吗？这就是我在 SMH 图上会关注的东西。
This is actually a pretty straightforward chart, I would say, from a technical perspective because one of two one of three things is going to most likely happen in the next week or two.
The bullish outcome is we break above the 50-day. So, I probably set an alarm or set an alert around 575. Uh um uh stock breaks above uh 575, that's a bullish outcome. Stock breaks below 515, that would take us below this confluence of support.
I would say that would be a pretty uh bearish breakdown for the SMH. ETFs remains between 515 and 575. I'd say it's neutral, right? That's why we call it moving average limbo. We're sort of waiting between the 50 and the 200 day. which one of these breaks first.
Does the momentum validate that? Do we get that follow-through day after we break through the moving average? That's what I'd be watching for on the chart of the SMH.
但我觉得值得指出的是，关于 AI 板块有很多疑问，10月到本周这段时间它大幅回调，加上 Anthropic 的 IPO。本周到目前为止，这个领域确实注入了新的乐观情绪。周三和周四收盘后，一些超大规模云厂商还会公布更多财报，我们看看会发生什么。
但就目前而言，我认为在 SMH 上关注200日移动均线绝对至关重要。
But I think it's worth noting as there's been a lot of questions about the AI trade, you know, kind of uh pulling back big time in the month of October going into this week with Anthropics IPO.
Uh there's certainly a new injection of optimism in that space uh this week. so far. We'll see what happens as we get more earnings from some of the hyperscalers on Wednesday and Thursday after the close.
But for now, I think SMH watching the 200 day moving average is absolutely crucial.
所以，SMH 目前守住了200日线。我认为这绝对值得密切关注。
So, SMH for now holding the 200 day. I think that's absolutely crucial to watch.
这个频道对 $SMH 的历次判断
StockCharts TV 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。