Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D.Published 2026-10-27
“When To Buy Mosaic Stock? NYSE: MOS”
$MOSBullish
AI summary · Mosaic is very cheap and offers a real opportunity: war-driven sulfur costs make phosphate production unprofitable and it must draw at least $500 million a year from credit lines, which the company calls temporary. Mid-cycle cash flow of about $500 million gives only a 10% cyclical return versus the 15-20% he wants, so a further ~40% fall to a $3-4 billion market cap, with no change over six months, would make it a truly winning deal. He may buy within 72 hours, starting at 1-2% and adding on declines; he owns none now.
I just wrote an update on my research platform about the company "Mosaic", and as promised, I will share it with you here. If we look at the stock, it has been volatile almost since time immemorial .
I started following him in the middle of the first decade of this century . I even owned it once or twice, and achieved acceptable results, but they weren't amazing.
What they said to watch for