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逐段跳播
一个荒谬的想法登上了头条，《金融时报》头版暗示星巴克现在正考虑收购Chipotle。这或许是我能想象到的最愚蠢的绝望形式之一，但我要说，如果这件事发生，很可能对这两只股票中的一只非常迅速且有用。
Well, a ridiculous idea has made headlines, with the Financial Times front page suggesting that Starbucks is now considering acquiring Chipotle. This is perhaps one of the most foolish forms of despair I can imagine, but I say if it happens, it is likely to be very and quickly useful to one of these two stocks.
我认为星巴克现在处于某种绝望之中。星巴克之所以有些绝望，部分原因是其在中国的失败实验导致增长停滞。在新冠疫情期间，他们试图大幅扩大在中国市场的存在。基于一切都在重新开放、中国在重新开放、情况会好起来的想法，该股在2021年初表现非常好。
结果事实证明，中国人不会花五美元买一杯该死的咖啡。所以，多么令人意外。
I think Starbucks is in a bit of despair right now. Starbucks is partly desperate because its growth has been lateral due to its failed experiment in China. During the COVID period, they tried to significantly expand their presence in the Chinese market.
The stock did perform very well at the beginning of 2021 based on the idea that everything was reopening, China was reopening , and things were going to be fine. Then it turned out that the Chinese would not spend five dollars on a cup of damn coffee. So, what a surprise.
星巴克认定我们犯了一个可怕的错误。当中国人想买更便宜、看起来更幸运的咖啡，比如“瑞幸咖啡”时，我们无法在中国卖美国咖啡。
Starbucks decided that we had made a terrible mistake. We cannot sell American coffee in China when the Chinese want to buy cheaper coffee that looks more fortunate, like "Luckin Coffee".
而现在星巴克——你编都编不出来——决定成立一个剥离集团来摆脱其中国业务。现在，他们急于寻找另一个运营领域。我不是在跟你开玩笑。在2026财年第一季度，公司宣布达成协议，与博裕资本成立合资企业来运营星巴克在中国的门店，被称为“处置集团”。
这已在证券交易委员会备案。他们称之为处置集团。糟糕到这种地步。这是一场真正的灾难。
And now Starbucks— you can't make this up—has decided to form a divestment group to get rid of their Chinese operations. Now, they are desperate to find another area of operations.
I'm not joking with you. In the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, the company announced an agreement to form a joint venture with Boyu Capital to operate Starbucks stores in China, known as the "Disposal Group".
This is on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission. They called it the disposal group. It's that bad. It's a real disaster.
所以我想知道，星巴克到底有多少钱来试图收购Chipotle，这又将如何影响股价？一句警告：他们没有钱。他们破产了。星巴克破产了。他们搞砸了第一个实验，现在他们彻底破产了。我有81亿美元的应付账款，这还是在加上他们的储值卡承诺之后，好吗？
所以我有81亿美元的账单。我不知道这里发生了什么，但如果你往上看，并没有多少批评。我有34亿美元的应付账款，以及价值13亿美元的应收账款。我会忽略存货，因为我们需要它们来覆盖这里的债务。
所以我会认为这是平局，好吗？这只能给我47亿美元。即使我很大方地把所有股票都加上，我仍然没有足够的钱来付账单。所以，在未来十二个月里，星巴克没有足够的钱来付账单，这太疯狂了。
So I wondered, well, how much money does Starbucks even have to try to acquire Chipotle and how will that affect the stock? A word of warning: they have no money. They are bankrupt.
Starbucks is bankrupt. They ruined experiment number one and now they are completely bankrupt. I have $8.1 billion in invoices and that's after adding their store card commitments, okay?
So I have $8.1 billion in bills. I don't know what happened here, but if you look up here, there isn't much criticism. I have $3.4 billion in invoices and accounts receivable worth $ 1.3 billion.
I will ignore the inventories because we will need them to cover those obligations here. So I'll consider it a tie, okay? This only gives me $4.7 billion. Even if I were generous and added all the stock, I still wouldn't have enough money to pay my bills.
So, for the next twelve months, Starbucks doesn't have enough money to pay its bills , and that's crazy.
是的，他们每年有大约30亿美元的自由现金流，这就是他们所依赖的。他们说：好吧，如果我们把未来一年的自由现金流加起来，我们就会有足够的钱。好。这可能是真的，但这并不能给你足够的钱来收购Chipotle，因为你已经破产了。这是个问题。
Yes, they have a free cash flow of about $3 billion a year, and that's what they rely on. They say: Well, if we add up our free cash flow over the next year, we'll have enough money.
Good. This may be true, but it doesn't give you enough money to buy Chipotle because you're broke. This is a problem.
现在如果你看他们的利润表，他们的总收入同比下降了1.4%。他们的运营费用下降了近2%，这其实是件好事。这意味着他们变得稍微更有效率了。所以他们在试图实现稳定。我看到了。但坦率地说，对于一家利润率10%、市盈率为1.8倍、市盈率为35倍的公司来说，这不是一笔好交易。这不是一笔好交易。
Now if you look at their income statement, their total revenue has decreased by 1.4% year-on-year . Their operating expenses decreased by nearly 2%, which is actually a good thing.
This means they have become slightly more efficient . So they are trying to achieve stability. I see that. But frankly, for a company with 10% profit margins and trading at a P/E ratio of 1.8 and a P/E ratio of 35, this is not a good deal. It's not a good deal.
两家公司都处于商业周期的非常成熟阶段，都已经增长了很多。星巴克遭遇挫折并在中国失败，现在他们有一系列资产要摆脱。
Both companies are in a very mature stage of the business cycle, having both grown a lot. Starbucks suffered a setback and failed in China, and now they have a range of assets to get rid of.
现在的想法似乎是，如果你把一家成熟公司星巴克与另一家成熟公司合并，我们就会以某种方式得到更好的业务。
The idea now seems to be that if you take a mature company, Starbucks, and merge it with another mature company , we will somehow get a better business.
例如，我真的不认为我们会在星巴克看到Chipotle的排队。我的意思是，也许你可以在Chipotle看到一些星巴克品牌的滴滤咖啡。如果他们能以5美元卖给你高利润率的滴滤咖啡，这可能不是个坏主意，但我不认为你很快就能在Chipotle喝到自己的精品拿铁。
For example, I really don't think we'll ever see Chipotle queues at Starbucks. I mean, maybe you can see some Starbucks-branded drip coffee in Chipotle. It might not be a bad idea if they could sell you drip coffee with a high profit margin for $5, but I don't think you'll be getting your own gourmet latte at Chipotle anytime soon.
不过，我认为这可能对Chipotle的股价有利。我认为它可能对Chipotle股价有利的原因是，要说服股东去做像合并Chipotle和星巴克这样荒谬的事情，你必须为Chipotle支付一个诱人的溢价。
However, I think it could be positive for Chipotle stock. The reason I believe it might be positive for Chipotle stock is that to convince shareholders to do something as ridiculous as merging Chipotle and Starbucks, you would have to pay a tempting premium for Chipotle.
现在，星巴克将不得不借大量债务来做这件事，因为他们已经破产了。因此，他们将不得不发行股票和债券。所以，对星巴克悲观，对Chipotle乐观，对整个合并后的实体悲观。
Now, Starbucks will have to borrow a lot of debt to do this because they are bankrupt. Therefore, they will have to sell shares and issue debt. So, pessimistic about Starbucks , optimistic about Chipotle, and pessimistic about the whole thing combined.
现在，星巴克的首席执行官，这里就变得有趣了，实际上是Chipotle的前首席执行官。所以，他似乎太想念Chipotle了，以至于想在他们中国失败之后做一件不可思议的事，而他被聘用正是为了帮助他们摆脱那个失败。
他需要尝试做点什么，我认为他无聊了，所以他们在某种程度上认为这是个好主意。就让我们接管我以前工作过的公司吧。
Now, the CEO of Starbucks, and here's where it gets interesting, is actually the former CEO of Chipotle. So, it seems he misses Chipotle so much that he wants to do something incredible after their failure in China, which he was hired for, you know, to help get them out of.
He needs to try to do something and I think he's bored, so they think this is a good idea in a way . Let's just take over the company I used to work for .
与此同时，星巴克实际上在支付这个人乘飞机去西雅图办公室的通勤费用，我很确定那是一架湾流。我不是在跟你开玩笑。这个人生活水准很高，而且在加利福尼亚州纽波特海滩的Chipotle总部还有点用处。
顺便说一句，那是个美丽的地方。那是个居住的好地方。纽波特海滩、尔湾，非常美丽。你只需要应对共产主义外交政策，但即便如此，这些地区仍然很迷人。啊，然后还有西雅图的星巴克。所以，虽然在他最初被聘用时他们为他建了一间行政办公室，但这个人基本上是通过他的湾流喷气机往返于星巴克的办公室。总之，这有点疯狂。
Meanwhile, Starbucks is literally paying for this guy's commute to his Seattle office by plane, and I'm pretty sure it's a Gulfstream. I'm not joking with you. The man lives at a good standard, and is somewhat helpful at Chipotle's headquarters in Newport Beach, California.
A beautiful area, by the way. It's a great place to live. Newport Beach, Irvine, is very beautiful. You just have to deal with communist foreign policy, but even so , these regions remain fascinating.
Ah, and then there's Starbucks in Seattle. So , while they built an executive office for him when he was first hired, the man was essentially commuting back and forth to the Starbucks offices via his Gulfstream jet. Anyway, it's kind of crazy.
好，这里有一点需要注意。星巴克取消了首席执行官因个人和非商业目的使用飞机的25万美元年度上限。在一次安全审查后，他有义务在所有飞行中使用私人航空。换句话说，以前首席执行官必须就使用私人飞机向星巴克补偿超过每年25万美元的费用。
但现在他们说，“不，不，不，老兄。”“你知道吗？因为现在针对首席执行官的威胁，你可以随意使用这架飞机，甚至用于个人目的。”“所以如果你想去夏威夷，你可以去。”
Okay, there's a point to note here. Starbucks has removed the $250,000 annual cap on the CEO's use of the aircraft for personal and non-commercial purposes. He became obligated to use private aviation for all his flights after a security review.
In other words, previously the CEO had to compensate Starbucks for the use of the personal aircraft, which exceeded $250,000 annually. But now they said, "No, no, no, man." "You know what?
Because of the threats against CEOs these days, you can use this plane however you like, even for your personal purposes." "So if you want to go to Hawaii , you can do that."
这个频道对 $SBUX 的历次判断
Meet Kevin 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。