$BRK.B · The Motley Fool 观点轨迹

《A New Catalyst for Coinbase?》

AI 摘要 · 伯克希尔的盈利下滑主要源于保险业务：Geico 的承保利润率收窄至个位数（综合成本率从 84% 升至 91%），原因是其有意加大投入，从 Progressive 手中夺回市场份额——说话者认可这笔支出。第三季度回购 96 亿美元，年初至今超过 140 亿美元，显示 Greg Abel 正将资本配置从巴菲特 1.2 倍市净率的规则转向别处，说话者称这是一个相当看涨的信号，不过股价处于历史高位，可能已不再低于内在价值。

上周末，Berkshire Hathaway 公布了第三季度业绩。我想先从保险谈起。显然，Berkshire 是一家庞大的公司，我们不可能面面俱到，但保险是这项业务中非常大的一块。

over the weekend, Birkshshire Hathaway posting its third quarter results. And I want to start off by talking about insurance. Obviously, Birkshshire is a huge company, so we can't talk about everything, but insurance a very big component of the business.

Berkshire 的管理层多次承认了这一点，说他们失去了第二大的市场份额，State Farm 是第一，他们几年前把第二大的市场份额输给了 Progressive，他们在技术上落后了，他们的广告宣传也不如以前有效，那只壁虎过了一阵子大概也有点累了，而且他们的盈利能力一直不算太好，如果你看他们的综合成本率，即便是一年前 Geico 盈利能力很强的时候，Geico 的综合成本率大约是84%，后来升到了91%。这意味着他们的承保利润率现在只有个位数。

Berkshire's management admitted this uh several times uh saying that they lost the number two market share state farms number one they lost the number two market share a few years ago to progressive and it's they were they fell behind on technology their ad campaigns weren't as effective as they used to be you know the gecko got kind of tired after after a while I guess um but and their profitability hadn't been that great if you look at their combined ratio even a year ago when Geico is highly profitable.

Geico's combined ratio is about 84%. It went up to 91%. Meaning that their underwriting margin is now in the single digits.

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《Is Wall Street Turning on AI?》

AI 摘要 · 伯克希尔的并购交易让它重新有了一点看点，股价上涨也可能吸引投资者；但说话者认为，伯克希尔在收购后会把公司管坏、利润率下降，被伯克希尔收购的Costco会被毁掉。他希望Greg Abel把3700亿美元现金中的1000亿美元投入运营公司，不过他认可伯克希尔不干预运营者。

Berkshire 正在收购 Costco。谁会说不呢？是的，Charlie Munger 的继承人和后代都会掀起一场公关风暴。等一下。父亲花了很多年试图说服 Warren Buffett 买 Costco、多买 Costco，而众所周知 Warren Buffett 犹豫了，在我看来，他错过了一个最好的投资机会。

他的，也就是 Charlie Munger 的，继承人会反对这件事。除此之外，我认为这不算一笔坏交易，是一笔扩大业务范围的好交易。如今 Berkshire 要让自己的业务转型已经非常困难。

我们听说过他们在新管理层下做的一些非常有趣的收购，但我怀疑其中任何一笔是否真能带来那种利润。另一方面，Berkshire 又变得有点令人兴奋了。比如，它的股价上涨了。这看起来像一家活跃的公司。

所以，也许做交易是能吸引投资者的东西。有一种感觉是，Warren 在愿意做交易方面有点松懈。所以，我认为这个想法相当不错。Jason，你怎么看？完全不是。Tony James 不会让这件事发生。

COSCO 的董事长已经当了近 10 年董事长，从八十年代起就在董事会里。如果说 Cosco 有什么如此神奇的地方，那就是他们的管理能力。他们真的是了不起、了不起的董事，不是吗？

他们了解自己的业务。他们了解自己的客户。而问题是，如果你看看 Berkshire 在收购任何业务之后的状态，他们就会变成糟糕的管理者。利润率下降。现金流很好，但是的。而所有这些现金流最终都落到 Berkshire 的资产负债表上。

是的。我希望 Greg Abel 能从那 3700 亿美元现金中拿出 1000 亿美元，送回给运营公司，说：“伙计们，你们可以现代化，可以改进，可以修好一些东西。”让我们把我们的形象找回来。

我知道。Dairy Queen 现在有一个 AI 人物，你开车经过得来速时可以和它说话。它只有 30% 的时候会出错，你知道。这，这是一种进步。Costco 会被毁掉——我知道这是异端邪说，但如果 Berkshire 拥有 Costco，

Berkshire is buying Costco. Who would say no? Yes, Charlie Munger's heirs and descendants will all create a public relations storm. One minute. Dad spent a lot of his life trying to convince Warren Buffett to buy Costco, to buy more of Costco, and famously Warren Buffett balked and missed out on one of his best investment opportunities in my opinion.

His, that is, Charlie Munger's, heirs will object to this. Other than that, I think it's not a bad deal, a good deal to expand the scope of the business. It has become very difficult for Berkshire to turn its business around these days.

We've heard about some really interesting purchases they've made under new management , but I question whether any of it will really bring in that kind of profit. On the other hand, Berkshire is getting a little exciting again.

For example, its share price has increased. This seems like an active company. So, maybe making deals is something that will attract investors. There is a sense that Warren was a little slack in his willingness to make deals.

So, I think this idea is pretty good. Jason, what do you think? Not at all. Tony James won't let this happen. The chairman of COSCO has been the chairman for almost 10 years , and has been with the board since the eighties.

If there's one thing about Cosco that's so magical, it's their management skills. They are really amazing, amazing directors, aren't they ? They know their business. They know their customers.

And the problem is, if you look at the state of Berkshire after they buy any business, they become bad managers. The profit rate decreases. Great cash flow, but yeah. And all that cash flow ultimately ends up on Berkshire's balance sheet.

Yes. And I wish Greg Abel would take $ 100 billion of that $370 billion in cash and send it back to the operating companies and say, "Guys, you can modernize, you can improve, you can fix things."

Let's get our profile back. I know. Dairy Queen now has an AI person you talk to when you go through the drive-thru. They only make mistakes 30 percent of the time, you know. This is this is an improvement.

Costco will be destroyed —I know it's heresy, but if Berkshire owns Costco,

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The Motley Fool 对 $BRK.B 的判断变化