TLT 全部观点

recently you know rates have been hitting highs every day and the TLTs 1 2 3 4 five six down days with a new low and the eight days here it's bounced back to the 8th day every single time.

So all I said is I said TLTs are very oversold. Usually my TLTs are oversold. And I'm like that's the first time I use the word very. It's not very sophisticated, but very oversold means don't be short the TLTs and maybe there's a a tactical broken bounce back to the 8th day. And so far um the TLTs are up 30 cents.

I wonder if yield sensitives moved. I mean, a classic yield sensitive would be TLT tried to. And then let's try arcade. Barely more movement in the after hours, but TLT is trying to get back to having lost that line.

But I think right now what they're really programmed on is the TLT. The TLT, look at that. Rates continue to go higher rates and interest rates where you could put your money in places that have absolutely no risk are starting to compete with historical gains in the equity market.

If you look at the technicals on TLT, TLT is sitting which which is an average duration about 25-year bond. If you look at the weekly chart of TLT, you'll find that TLT is at this nearly glorious bottom.

Now, next, Don, you've brought us another bullish deal today, and you're bullish on the iShares TLT bond ETF , despite the global sell-off in bonds. So, explain the thesis here and what you expect the bonds to behave over the coming weeks.

Global bond sales? This is the right time to take advantage of this type of price movement . Bond vigilantes may appear where there is some selling activity in the bond world. Look , I focus a lot on futures products.

I am watching "ZN", which of course are 10-year Treasury bond contracts. I am watching ZB, which is a 30-year Treasury bond . TLT is a very good combination , so to speak, of both.

If you were an investor in TLT, which is a very popular longdated treasury bond ETF out of EyesShares, you compounded at almost 8% a year positive through the 2010s. It was a very good money-making investment.

In the 2020s, because real rates have exploded from being negative to being very positive, your kager, your compound annual growth rate over this decade so far has been negative 4.4%.

Uh people are selling down Treasuries really for for two reasons. One, because inflation is high, so they're expecting that at a certain point that the Fed may have to hike in order to tamper down inflation and every time we see further escalation in Iran, further move higher in the price of oil, that is transferring through to the TLT getting hit and and rates moving higher.

The bonds, the bonds just got you know, they were they were getting hammered, and what I think happened in there is the Treasury Secretary said, "Let the shorts feel comfortable for a few days, then we'll go in and say something, and we'll we'll try to torch the short sellers."

Which they did, but then other people came back in and said, "Wait a minute, why did we cover our shorts? Let's add that short back on." Or are those shorts added to it?